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General discussionSecret Hitler 3 - Beyond Stardom!(800 posts)(800 posts)
(800 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted January 27, 2020
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RWarehall: There is no way Joe is in the top half for being Hitler this game. You can make every excuse about how Joe "could have" dropped a L, but I have to assess whether he did drop one. The most likely Hitlers are You, Lift and ZFR and I have to worry about the newer players who might not know what they should do. Microfish flip-flopping about how suddenly everyone who passed the 4 Liberal policies can't be trusted comes in 4th.

The least likely Hitler is GameRager who can only be Hitler if Joe is a straight Fascist. At best Joe is the 5th most likely to be Hitler. RedFireGaming is the only player eligible less likely but we learn less than with Joe as Chancellor as there will have to be a lot of explaining if we get a 3F claim again.

You seem to ignore the idea that the reason for no conflicts very well might be the cards themselves but you have already proven you have zero understanding of this game's probabilities.

Joe's only failure, he had a 6/11 chance to draw 3Fs or 54.5%. Meaning he more likely than not drew 3Fs regardless of his alignment. I have more information since I know I received 3Fs, so I know his real odds of 3F are 5/12 or 41.7% which is still fairly reasonable.

Your crying that he is "very very likely" to have dropped a L is just plain WRONG! And your whole analysis is based on odds that you pull out of thin air and have no reflection in reality.

So the real truth, if you were honestly a Liberal doubting everyone, you should think there is a 54.5% chance he's telling the truth about his draw. But I'm pretty sure you are not. For someone with "1000s" of games under your belt, the fact you are complaining so hard tells me we are 100% safe with Joe as Chancellor and likely ZFR as well else you wouldn't be so desperate to change things. That 80% chance we (the Liberals) win right now as a L gets drawn must be bothering you...
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supplementscene: Hitler has being in government, 95% chance!!! If you're Liberal there's 78% chance Joe isn't Lib -yet you want him as chancellor as a possible Hitler

You rage quit out last game I played with you as Liberal, when I was Liberal when Liberal policies were being passed and liberals won when you were being sheeped by a fascist ZFR. You sided with ZFR. You were fucking useless in that game. Let's not pretend you're not either:

A) Good at the game as Liberal after siding with a fascist that outed as a fascist clearly in the last game I played with you

OR

B) Not Fascist this game

Your 1 or the other in this one and you're a liability either way
Talk about someone who is useless...
95% complete b.s.

You want to be insulting...screw you!

Odds Joe is Hitler since no one selected him, his position did is 1 in 7 or 14.3%...those are the facts. You can make up stupid and idiotic numbers all you want but everyone knows you have no clue what you are talking about...

He might be Fascist, but I don't care. If he is, a Liberal ZFR exposes him, or a Hitler ZFR gets exposed with him. That is called good strategy, not stupid reckless and unsupported claims that make no sense. But the good thing is that someone who might be Hitler (ZFR) will be locked out of Chancellor for the next two governments if this passes.

Some of us know how this game works...you clearly don't. And I remember that game, where you were also convinced and telling everyone how I was Fascist the whole game and YOU WERE WRONG!!!! Because you are clueless!!!!
Posted January 27, 2020
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supplementscene: You're not understanding the objective of the game. Fascists objective is to get Hitler elected, Liberals is to not let Hitler get elected.
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GameRager: I am.....I just like to have fun, and sometimes having fun involves playing any way one wants...even if it is not the optimal path to win for one's team.

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supplementscene: I've actually changed my mind. I kind of think ZFR is Liberal who has inadvertently picked Hitler as his chancellor in the Hitler Zone. Hitler is within Joe, yourself and RWarehall. But because Lift, who I'm sure is fascist is backing Joe as chancellor, I'm pretty sure Joe is Hitler.
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GameRager: So now you suspect Rwarehall? Why? o.0

As for Joe, I still think he would've falsely labeled me fascist to get me suspected by others when he had the chance. As he didn't I think he is either a liberal or a regular fascist.....gods help me if i'm wrong, though.

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supplementscene: Anyway I kind of want you lot to vote for ZFR-Joe in so I can say 'Told You So' at the end of the game.
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GameRager: Even if you turn out to be right(I hope you aren't so we can keep playing), it would likely be more due to luck(due to your suspecting of almost everyone else and unique play style) rather than anything else.

Also don't you want us to win this thing?

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supplementscene: @Pooka if Joe is Hitler can you just assume he voted Yes to speed the vote up?
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GameRager: That's not how it works...give it time. :)
======================================================

But still @Op: Who's votes(besides mine) are we missing?
I can't win this 'thing' when Liberals are being idiots. I'd rather be proven right and find out who the idiots are and at least be proven right on my reads
Posted January 27, 2020
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supplementscene: I can't win this 'thing' when Liberals are being idiots. I'd rather be proven right and find out who the idiots are and at least be proven right on my reads
The only idiot seems to be you and your poor math skills.
Posted January 27, 2020
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supplementscene: You rage quit out last game I played with you as Liberal, when I was Liberal when Liberal policies were being passed and liberals won when you were being sheeped by a fascist ZFR. You sided with ZFR. You were fucking useless in that game.

Your 1 or the other in this one and you're a liability either way
Could we please not stoop to insults? This is supposed to be a friendly game(albeit with some jabs here and there if not too bad). :)
Posted January 27, 2020
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GameRager: Could we please not stoop to insults?
Seconding this.

scene: Calm down. Don't take it personally and remember that this is a game.
RW: Don't respond to scene's remarks and leave him to me.
Posted January 27, 2020
ZFR: I would like to hear from you why i should vote for you/joe. You have a chance of winning me over, but please tell me why should I vote for you as opposed to against you.

Why Joe? What convinces you that he is lib? Would this proof stand up in your eyes if the situation was reversed with me was in your shoes and you in mine?

Are you gambling or making an educated guess on Joe's party?

[spoiler]



Is he Brexit or Remain?



[/spoiler]

Why did you pick Joe over other players? I appreciate your response.
Posted January 27, 2020
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Microfish_1: Why Joe? What convinces you that he is lib?
Still same reasons as before. He passed me LF on second government. Given what what we know about RW/GR, I don't think fascist Joe would have done it.

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Microfish_1: Would this proof stand up in your eyes if the situation was reversed with me was in your shoes and you in mine?
Not sure. You don't know I'm lib.


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Microfish_1: Why did you pick Joe over other players? I appreciate your response.
I wrote 3 points in response to this question from Lift couple of posts ago.

So make your own mind on how to vote.

Could Joe be a well-hidden Hitler? Sure. In which case if he gets elected they win and I congratulate team Fascists on a game well-played.
Who could be Hitler!Joe's partners? I don't think it's RW. (a) He voted against Joe's government. (b) He made it 3-0 for Lib, despite knowing that Hitler!Joe is very likely to be in next government and have to make it 4-0. I don't think it's GR for similar reason.
So if Joe is Hitler we have to look at his buddies hidden in Lift, RFG and yourself.

Honestly, I see such a scenario (either 2 of Lift/RFG/Micro + H!Joe) as possible. But also very possible for Hitler to be hidden among Lift/RFG/micro or scene. The problem with this game is that the governments got "railroaded" so it's very difficult to say if fascists didn't try to steer Hitler into government because he was already there, or because he was NOT there but it would look suspicious for them to try and steer it his way.
Posted January 27, 2020
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supplementscene: Hitler has being in government, 95% chance!!!
...
Your 1 or the other in this one and you're a liability either way
You know, using three exclamation marks doesn't make you look more convincing. It makes you look like one if those screamy internet kids. Also stop pulling random numbers out of your ass.

And most importantly: insulting fellow players just because they don't agree with your wrong arguments is very, very bad style.
Posted January 27, 2020
I just thought of something. Here is an indication that Joe is probably not Hitler.

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JoeSapphire: whoop whoop!

I had no choice but to pass a liberal policy as ZFR handed me 2 Ls.

Hopefully that means he doesn't trust me, or didn't want to give me the opportunity to get myself tested, rather than us having no Ls left in the pack.

zfr?
This was done right after Pooka announced the results.

Would Hitler do it? Would Hitler immediately jump out and claim LL?

Remember Hitler doesn't know who his buddies are. For all Joe knew, I could be his buddy. Instead of claiming LL Hitler!Joe would wait to see what I do first. If I say I passed LL, he confirms. But if I were his buddy, I'd claim LF, which he then corraborates. This way Hitler gets confirmed in a stronger way, and I reveal myself to be his buddy.

The fact that Joe claimed his cards immediately, without waiting for me, is a good indication he's not Hitler.

I could be wrong of course. But I still think this kind of theory is better than pulling %-ages out of thin air.
Posted January 27, 2020
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ZFR: I just thought of something. Here is an indication that Joe is probably not Hitler.

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JoeSapphire: whoop whoop!

I had no choice but to pass a liberal policy as ZFR handed me 2 Ls.

Hopefully that means he doesn't trust me, or didn't want to give me the opportunity to get myself tested, rather than us having no Ls left in the pack.

zfr?
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ZFR: This was done right after Pooka announced the results.

Would Hitler do it? Would Hitler immediately jump out and claim LL?

Remember Hitler doesn't know who his buddies are. For all Joe knew, I could be his buddy. Instead of claiming LL Hitler!Joe would wait to see what I do first. If I say I passed LL, he confirms. But if I were his buddy, I'd claim LF, which he then corraborates. This way Hitler gets confirmed in a stronger way, and I reveal myself to be his buddy.

The fact that Joe claimed his cards immediately, without waiting for me, is a good indication he's not Hitler.

I could be wrong of course. But I still think this kind of theory is better than pulling %-ages out of thin air.
Unless he was a very experienced player with loads of time on his hands Hitler would claim he was given what he was given, yes.

I question why you're bringing this post up. It's not alignment indicitive.
Posted January 27, 2020
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ZFR: I just thought of something. Here is an indication that Joe is probably not Hitler.

This was done right after Pooka announced the results.

Would Hitler do it? Would Hitler immediately jump out and claim LL?

Remember Hitler doesn't know who his buddies are. For all Joe knew, I could be his buddy. Instead of claiming LL Hitler!Joe would wait to see what I do first. If I say I passed LL, he confirms. But if I were his buddy, I'd claim LF, which he then corraborates. This way Hitler gets confirmed in a stronger way, and I reveal myself to be his buddy.

The fact that Joe claimed his cards immediately, without waiting for me, is a good indication he's not Hitler.

I could be wrong of course. But I still think this kind of theory is better than pulling %-ages out of thin air.
I really appreciate your taking the time to respond to me and explaining your reasoning!

I appreciate this post as much as or more than any other of your arguments as proof that Joe isn't H. It'd be a callous H indeed to purposely conflict with his scumbuddies without purposely knowing who they are.

Sorry, scene. I have appreciated and followed your reasoning much of this game until today, but I'm thinking there is something off with it atm.
Posted January 27, 2020
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supplementscene: Unless he was a very experienced player with loads of time on his hands Hitler would claim he was given what he was given, yes.
Well, if I were Hitler and were Chancellor, I would wait for the President to state what he gave me. The Fascist don't have any chat in this game, as you know. And Hitler doesn't know who his buddies are. But the cards can offer a way to communicate. If I were a Fascist and would give my Hitler some cards, I could afterwards lie about the cards I gave him. Then Hitler would know that I'm his buddy - and would confirm whatever I lied about to avoid conflict. That's information gain for him, which is worth a lot. When he gets 2L, the gain is even bigger, because it would allow the F-H pair to silently bury an L. To make these tricks possible, Hitler has to wait for his president to state what he gave him first and in an online game he can do so without arousing suspicion by just not posting until his president has posted.

That you choose to ignore these well known tactics, with your 1000s of games of experience, is very telling.
Posted January 27, 2020
Morning all,

gentlemen, I'm sorry to see that we've had a disagreement, but I hope we can remember that we are all friends here and we're here first and foremost to enjoy ourselves.

I see a lot of myself reflected in scene's behaviour - I have totally been in that situation where it looks like you're about to lose and you're the only person who's aware of the danger and no-one will listen to you it's horrible.

I'm a little concerned myself that RWarehall and ZFR have played us and this government is doomed to pass an F and give the fascists an execution, but at least we're not nominating Hitler as chancellor and I think even with one liberal down the odds that we can beat the game are still strong.
Still, I'm holding onto my faith in zfr and rw. I've got a good feeling about this.
Posted January 27, 2020
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JoeSapphire: I see a lot of myself reflected in scene's behaviour - I have totally been in that situation where it looks like you're about to lose and you're the only person who's aware of the danger and no-one will listen to you it's horrible.
Can't imagine which game you are referring to! ;-)
Posted January 27, 2020
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RedFireGaming: By the way, are you going to investigate ZFR or Joe?
I'm missing your vote. Please post at the very least.
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionSecret Hitler 3 - Beyond Stardom!(800 posts)(800 posts)
(800 posts)