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I'm neining this, I now think it's ZFR, Lift, Joe and ZFR is trying to Heil Hitler - nein this and play Rager and RWarehall

My only concern is why ZFR didn't drop a single liberal policy because he and Joe could of either double dropped or at least made Rager look bad

Liberals this government will lose the game
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supplementscene: I'm neining this, I now think it's ZFR, Lift, Joe and ZFR is trying to Heil Hitler - nein this and play Rager and RWarehall

My only concern is why ZFR didn't drop a single liberal policy because he and Joe could of either double dropped or at least made Rager look bad

Liberals this government will lose the game
I am split.....on the one hand I suspect Joe a bit, but if he passed another F policy(accidental or deliberate) we'd still be ok(the only concern would be if he is indeed hitler)....but on the other hand, your play style(even if your default) and bad baths plus your seeming trying to direct the game at various stages leaves a slight bad taste in my mouth.

At this point I dunno what to vote.
My other concern is that all 3 fascists are in play. That's the only reason I can think ZFR forces the 4th blue. To make everyone look Liberal until we get 3 concurent fascist governments

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supplementscene: I'm neining this, I now think it's ZFR, Lift, Joe and ZFR is trying to Heil Hitler - nein this and play Rager and RWarehall

My only concern is why ZFR didn't drop a single liberal policy because he and Joe could of either double dropped or at least made Rager look bad

Liberals this government will lose the game
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GameRager: I am split.....on the one hand I suspect Joe a bit, but if he passed another F policy(accidental or deliberate) we'd still be ok(the only concern would be if he is indeed hitler)....but on the other hand, your play style(even if your default) and bad baths plus your seeming trying to direct the game at various stages leaves a slight bad taste in my mouth.

At this point I dunno what to vote.
ZFR has picked the most likely player to be Hitler. You have a choice of agreeing to that or being in government yourself
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GameRager: Also want to ask: Why(besides Scene's posts) did you pick Joe? Are you really so trusting of him? Just asking before I cast my vote.
As Bookwyrm wrote. Sometimes you just have to make a choice.
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supplementscene: ZFR has picked the most likely player to be Hitler. You have a choice of agreeing to that or being in government yourself
Most likely to all, or just to you? Yes, I suspect him a bit, but I suspect him more of being a regular fascist than hitler at this point.

Still, I am considering breaking my YES TO ALL streak for this, if only a bit, due to us being at 3 F policies....don't want us to lose the game, after all.

Also as for me being in govt: No matter what govt goes next the odds of 3 F cards again are somewhat decent.....either way(unless Joe is hitler) we'd likely be looking at yet another passed F policy. Also what if the one I pick turns out to be hitler? That could happen as well.
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supplementscene: ZFR has picked the most likely player to be Hitler. You have a choice of agreeing to that or being in government yourself
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GameRager: Most likely to all, or just to you? Yes, I suspect him a bit, but I suspect him more of being a regular fascist than hitler at this point.

Still, I am considering breaking my YES TO ALL streak for this, if only a bit, due to us being at 3 F policies....don't want us to lose the game, after all.

Also as for me being in govt: No matter what govt goes next the odds of 3 F cards again are somewhat decent.....either way(unless Joe is hitler) we'd likely be looking at yet another passed F policy. Also what if the one I pick turns out to be hitler? That could happen as well.
A regular fascist would conflict to get Hitler into play. The fact we have no conflicts means either:

A) 4 Liberal players - VERY UNLIKELY
B) Hitler is in play perhaps with 1 or 2 other fascists - very likely

If you claim to have received 3 fascist policies and you are Liberal you have to shoot Joe. Otherwise it's obviously yourself, Joe and ZFR are a fascist team.
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supplementscene: I'm neining this,
"Voting no to the most Liberal player is outing fascist btw."
But voting No to this government also means voting Yes to either Lift or Micro as President next...
Even if Joe is a Fascist, and not Hitler where we lose, the ball is in ZFRs court who should have a 80% chance to draw a L. If Joe as a regular Fascist discards it, then we have a conflict and will know.
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supplementscene: How about :

So we combine the possibility a fascist isn't in play, so 3/8*3/7*3/6*3/5 = 4.8% (rounded up), so 95.2% chance 1 is in play combined with the 78% possibility. So 0.78x0.952 = 0.74

So 74% chance Joe is fascist, correct? Or is my 4.8% wrong?
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RWarehall: How about there are 8 players...3 of them are Fascist. Odds Joe is Fascist is 3 in 8 or 37.5%. But we don't really care so much if he's just a Fascist, right? Because only Hitler is the real problem, so 1 in 8 or 12.5%.

Assuming you are Fascist, Scene, that changes those odds: 2 in 7 to be Fascist or 28.6%
or if you are Hitler: 0% chance to be a real problem. or 1 in 7 (14.3%) chance to be Hitler.

See how you can manipulate statistics?

But if you go back to the first run through the deck, what are the odds you get 4L passed out of 5. Not only do you have to get lucky with the cards, but also have all governments pass the right ones. Instead you completely discount the luck we had then and laser focus on the bad streak.

Let's take coin flipping. Heads/Heads/Heads/Tails/Tails. You are ignoring the first 3 Heads flipped and are saying since the last two flips both came out Tails there is a 75% chance the coin is doctored in some way.
I'm not sure why you're defending your soft conflict. It's very likely 1 or both of you dropped while playing previous L Cards to get Liberal credit.

Joe should be the player your most suspicious of if you're Liberal
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ZFR: As Bookwyrm wrote. Sometimes you just have to make a choice.
Fair enough...i'm just hoping you made the correct one. :)

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supplementscene: A) 4 Liberal players - VERY UNLIKELY
B) Hitler is in play perhaps with 1 or 2 other fascists - very likely
Well Joe is either liberal or hitler then, if you're correct.....if so i'd lean him more towards liberal....I mean he investigated me yet didn't say I was fascist when he could've easily done so. So either he's a dumb andor cautious hitler or liberal.

At this point i'm leaning more towards liberal due to the odds and his investigation reporting

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supplementscene: If you claim to have received 3 fascist policies and you are Liberal you have to shoot Joe. Otherwise it's obviously yourself, Joe and ZFR are a fascist team.
Is that how the special election works?

Also do you mean for ZFR/joe, or me/someone else and joe?
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supplementscene: I'm not sure why you're defending your soft conflict. It's very likely 1 or both of you dropped while playing previous L Cards to get Liberal credit.
If RW got FFF, he knows the probability of Joe getting FFF is 42%. That's quite good, and far from "it's very likely".
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RWarehall: If Joe as a regular Fascist discards it, then we have a conflict and will know.
Good point....what to vote....what to vote.
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supplementscene: Joe should be the player your most suspicious of if you're Liberal
You keep saying this, without stating if he's the most suspicious player based on some sort of criteria we can all get behind or just your meta play/feelings.

I am still undecided, though, based on your words and that of others.
The way Scene gets all vehement honestly reduces my worry that Joe might be Hitler a bit. To me it looks as if Scene knows something. For example that this is actually an L-L government. Which would lose him the game if he is Fascist. Since we should have a good chance of drawing L and if it's an L-L government, this will win the game.

@Scene: no matter whether you are Fascist or Liberal, you really shouldn't try to use statistics to back your case. You always get it wrong. You confuse things that aren't correlated. I always wonder how much of that is intentional (because you want to draw a certain conclusion) and how much you really don't get. But perhaps it's better to talk about this post-game. Because right now it gets mixed up with possible alignments and intent and if you intentionally got it wrong, then you can't say so now, of course.

@ZFR: what made you choose Joe over me? I get it that you see me as more fascist-y than Joe, but shouldn't I be less Hitler-y than him, for exactly that reason?
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Lifthrasil: The way Scene gets all vehement honestly reduces my worry that Joe might be Hitler a bit. To me it looks as if Scene knows something. For example that this is actually an L-L government. Which would lose him the game if he is Fascist. Since we should have a good chance of drawing L and if it's an L-L government, this will win the game.
Or if one is F we can cause a conflict and know one more person to watch out for/suspect a bit.

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Lifthrasil: @ZFR: what made you choose Joe over me? I get it that you see me as more fascist-y than Joe, but shouldn't I be less Hitler-y than him, for exactly that reason?
If you're more fascist you could've ended up passing an F policy for certain....maybe ZFR worried about that?
I probably would have voted No to you Lift. I don't want anyone in as Chancellor who seemed to be striving to be Liberal. You can't say you didn't. It's why I don't want ZFR as Chancellor. Joe really didn't promote himself at all and sort of snuck into the government because a lot of players are new to the game and don't realise putting 3 players in a row is a weak strategy because it forced ZFR to work to make the jump from me back to GameRager. If ZFR turned out bad, we'd have had a problem and would have needed 2 players to make that jump.

I don't care so much whether Joe is a mere Fascist if ZFR is good, because it's still likely he gets exposed. 80% chance if he didn't drop a L and still a 50% chance if he did.