I figured you were joking, laughed, and then decided to answer seriously/jokingly on my own just in case you weren't 100% joking


to those who know: the last time i saw bookwyrm play he was very...aggressive as town. is he as aggressive as scum?

@GH: I unvoted ZFR because my vote was RVS and he got quite quickly to 3 votes. Yes, one was already removed again, but still that's no reason to keep an RVS vote. Also ZFR with all his maths is his usual self. So NAI and useful to keep around until some reason for suspicion appears.

But who is not useful so far is Catte. Come on, you can do better than a few joke posts with no content!

Vote Catte

Was busy so I just read the happenings. On the phone so mostly writing about what caught my attention and I remember. So bear with me if I got something wrong. First the ZFR wagon, pooka did un-vote as soon as he saw that he was 3rd vote so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. In RVS and so early it's easy to lapse attention. Lift could've stayed on, meh, probably NAI his unvote. About the no lynch discussion - meh, not really something we should strive for. Scum probably would happily agree to no lynch, free NK without any info for town from the wagons. That being said, I don't have much to go on, nmillar's vote on the newcomer might be maybe something weird (usually we don't lynch newbies on D1). Anyway carry on :). I'll tune in tomorrow at some point. Until then my vote on Bookwyrm can stay, I have nothing really better yet.

Not this setup. A single NL doesn't give Mafia an extra NK, nor does it reduce the number of wagons to analyse. 8 vs 2 and 7 vs 2 game give exactly the same number of NKs and wagons. Count it.

Joe. OK, maybe not "just a joke", but nothing serious either.



It's not necessarily about improving. I'm trying to figure out, what works for me. But more importantly: How the game works. Haven't quite figured that one out yet.


Just like with everyone else. That's why everyone likes flips. That one was surprisingly easy to figure out from the start.



This would have been your chance to pick nmillar, if you had wanted too, without being scrutinized for attempted self-voting.
If you're interested: For me (between the three of you) Bookwyrm is a tiny bit ahead with contribution, but maybe a tiny bit too serious about RVS-votes that early in the game, so I'd be equally ok with lynching either of you three.



Assumptions are dangerous.

Play like this sometimes. On purpose/unintentionally.


And now you want me to decide: a) Is that a challenge (from Mafia of course)? and if so: b) If I want to take you up on that challenge?


Math questions make me sad. We just don't mix well. Bad karma.

I'll try anyway:
5 (potential me not included)
That way, even if Mafia was interested in a NL, because they deem it good for them AND both of them were to actually vote for it, there are still 3 Townies who want it. BUT Mafia suppossedly split up, so it would probably be 1 Mafia and 4 Townies. Which would be "only" half of the townies (8 total), but still good enough for me.
I'm gonna get lynched now, aren't I?

If I don't get lynched and should make it further, please make sure to have someone around who can decifer vote histories, because I tell you all right now: I'm not gonna touch that! Under no circumstances! Not! Gonna! Happen!

EV is relevant regardless of whether we vote randomly; though the actual value will be different. We don't know who Mafia is so for each of us there is a non-zero probability that each of the other n players is Mafia (except Innocent Child for whom that value is 0). The final probability of hitting scum in a given lynch is then the weighted average of those.

In case of random voting, each player has an equal weight of 1. In case of non-random, those suspicious ones have a bigger weight. In both cases we get some final EV value.

The random-voting EV value is just a good one to compare ourselves vs blink monkeys (PS: real Townie's do worse than blind monkeys according to the history of mafiascum games, which means the Mafiosos' knowledge of who their fellows are is actually pretty powerful).

PPS: I *think* I might have discovered a tell of GR when he's Mafia that I see in this game. Going to reread the previous games he played to see if I'm onto something.

Ooooh right. You haven't seen my shenanigans before. We're going to have SO much fun together. Don't worry if you don't have as much fun, I'll make up the difference so we get a good average! >:D

That's a lot of words to address something I didn't say anything about, namely the relevance of EV values related to non-random guessing.

If you care to make an argument as to why we should lynch based on Random.org, I'll listen. In the meantime, I'm planning to not vote randomly. My first vote was my only vote for the RVS stage.

That is interesting. I look forward to hearing more.

OK, first of all

"blink monkeys" were supposed to be "blind monkeys" and "real Townie's" has an apostrophe not because of moth's but because I meant to write "Town's stats" before I changed the sentence structure.
(dedo, I'm not quoting myself so I don't accidentally edit)

Second:
So what I thought was GR's tell didn't turn out to be a tell based on the sample games 59-75 which he played.

Basically his post number 7 I found strange not because of the waffles (that's fairly typical GR), but because it's... serious?

He's played 13 consecutive games before this one, he knows what RVS is, yet instead of taking Bookwyrm's post for the RVS that it is, he's "analysing" if it's Town Bookwyrm catching scum or Scum Bookwyrm shading.

Feels odd.

But maybe I'm overreacting. He did post that he will probably remove it later on.

Anyway, I thought maybe such early "analysis" was something scum!GH would do (it was a fairly good tell for scum!scene), but in the 2 games where GH was scum, he didn't really do anything like this.

Still, if people don't want to go with NoLynch, I'm happy to move GH to the "willing to vote instead of NL" bucket.

OK, sorry. I misread your "EV based on random voting is irrelevant" as "EV is irrelevant because it's based on random voting".

I'll be honest, all the maths stuff made me switch off. I was just waiting for ZFR to get it out of his system.

But also, joke posts with no content are kind of my forte.

Does my RVS vote on nmillar count? That's all I have going.

Nah. EV on random voting is irrelevant because we're (hopefully) not just voting randomly. Any other voting based EV is beyond my aptitude for calculating, and would probably make an excellent eye glaze for me.

Is there more than one vote on that wagon? If not, it isn't a wagon. Even two votes isn't particularly interesting; it's seeing what people do when three or more votes accrue that things get interesting and RVS breaks.

OK, but the advantage of NL, small as it is, stands regardless. Even if you're voting non-randomly you still get the advantage of choosing from A, B, C instead of A, B, C, D.