I'll correct myself before anyone nitpicks and tries to spin. By "everything I've said is true to the best of my knowledge" I meant that everything I've said was true to the extent I knew at the time I said it.

Have I made assumptions and mistakes that turned out to not be correct (e.g. doctor's mechanics)? Yes. But that is inevitable.

So would I. My argument isn't that you are alive, thus you must be scum. My argument is that you usually play so towny, that you are a very good target for scum to Night Kill. Yet this time I don't see you as that towny. So I don't argue why are you still alive, I'm asking why you are not your usual self. Let's go over your posts for day 3, shall we?

Agreement with dedo. Reason to protect doctor seems faulty.

Since dedo said he didn't notice any protection, trent was correct in saying that protection isn't noticed. You challenged that assumption. Risky claim for scum, but not impossible, especially since there have been double target flavour.

Evidence so far suggest there isn't a scum role blocker. On both nights we had one claim of being blocked (darts), and flub was town. If scum had a role blocker, they are either not using said power (why?) or whoever was blocked didn't step forwards. If there is a townie that was blocked, he would most likely have come forward, yet none have. Logical conclusion, no scum role blocker.

A scum tracker that targets someone who visits someone else means they have found a power role. A scum watcher that sees someone visit someone else has also found a power role. Whether a doctor is more important than an investigative role is (highly) debatable. Any townie identified as a power role is at risk.

Setup isn't to be blamed. Players' perception of it is.

I was under the impression bler said at least one of the people visiting him was town. Can you link me to the post he said all his visits were from town?

For the "alliance" part, I'll have to go back over your posts (both of you), but you do seem to jump in each other's defence quite a bit, as well as supporting each other's arguments. That's also why I waited so long to reply, to see if you'd be agreeing again or not. To quote Alice, "Curiouser and curiouser".

Second post incoming in ~10 minutes, want to keep it separate from the answer to Lift.

Free bump

So, let's go over the "protect the doctor" reasoning.

There are currently 9 of us alive. During night 1, we had 9 reported actions: 2 packs, 2 brains, two protections, one dart (flub, role blocker), one noise heard (dedo, tracker), and one night kill. 3 of those actors have since died (RW, trent, flub). That leaves at least 6 people taking actions still alive.
Assumptions time:
3 scum. All 3 take night actions (either 2 roles and a goon going for night kill, or 3 roles, one of which kills). That leaves town with 3 roles alive, for a total of 6. Scum have a one in two of hitting a role, down from the initial two in three.
From the possible roles, town has one protection (assuming Lift was protected by town), and two investigative (two from pack, brain, tracker). Investigative roles seem (to me) more important that protective ones.

Let's see N2 actions for a bit, shall we?

The ones we know of that are still in play are 3 investigations (brain and pack), the tracker, the protection and the kill. Out of the 3 investigations, at least two should be town, since 2 scum investigative roles do sound redundant. So, with bler assuming he had at least one town visitor, that means either two investigations, or protection/something.

So, did the math.
Unvote Lift
Vote No Lynch
Town has at least 2 investigative roles, possibly up to 4. And by no lynching, we do also help protect the doctor, that Lift and Dedo so worry about. I still think they are too chummy for townies, but a no lynch is more likely to provide info than a lynch, especially with that many investigative roles running around.

Interesting analysis. The major risk of a no lynch is that if the game is a 5-4 split, a no-lynch ends the game barring doctor making a save.

Your analysis also to some (imo significant) extent relies on the assumption town investigators have something useful to find amidst the noise. I'm skeptical town has an alignment cop - given the number of roles in play that would seem like an overly strong town (and we're getting our buns handed to us atm).

My theory is that town has cops who get tidbits of information. I'll probably miss something but what are the alternative cops:
Role cop - 1 confirmed. Multiple possible.
Vanilla cop - Weaker version of role cop. Possible to likely.

Could also theorize a parity cop or a stats cop. Am I missing an alternative?

Having been a parity cop last game the basic design means you probably don't know anything til at least day 3 (and 4-5 more likely) because you only get info when you have enough targets die. Also, the role is pretty reliant on an N0 action, which seems inconsistent with the claims we've seen. No one mentioned being searched/mind-read as we entered. If there is one, it would seem to be on top of all the other roles on the table with no tell. So I'm assuming parity cop is out.

Stats cop, maybe. But if there is one and they were town what can they prove? I believe Lift argued that the boulder on RW was a feat of strength; Hijack countered it could have been magic. We're in a cave, so maybe it was a trap. Cristi was killed by blades,

Personally I think it's risky to assume cops are going to win the game unless tracker catches the murderer in the act and all other night actions are accounted for elsewhere.

You said yourself, it's not the game design that's at issue here, it's players' perception of it. At daybreak of D2 people were ready to lynch any second role cop; I made assumptions about role blockers, and still not sure how a tracker (role more or less confirmed, alignment at least open to question) fits in.

Going back to D2 my perception was that town had a lot of weak to moderate investigative roles presenting a diffuse target for scum, and that the case for full claim was compiling all of it to build a larger thread while we still had time to do some verification of claims with the roles available. Could also have sicced the tracker on people who claimed vanilla or claimed a role with no calling card.

That thread is weaker today and will be weaker still tomorrow, and time has grown too short to do any meaningful verifying in future nights. We're facing the end of the road now.

TLDR, I'm skeptical town has A cop that's going to solve the puzzle alone.

***
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the list of players still alive who have not received a NA would be just JMich, Wyrm, Lift?

Also, unlikely it's out there, but does anyone want to claim a received action for N2 that had not been reported for N1?

A quick update - sorry, I know it's awkward given the amount of time left, but I'm not feeling quite myself this evening. I'll try and think through things more tomorrow.

In answer to Leonard: My theory involved a scum roleblocker that Bler had accidentally outed. Having only one roleblocker mentioned by people so far and that roleblocker turning up dead and flipping town put a massive hole in my theory.

JMich: I'd agree with bler here: given the possibility of the numbers, are you absolutely sure a no-lynch is wise?

bler: Surely Lift claimed protected on N1? In any case, can't say I've seen evidence of any new actions.

He did, yes. I was asking about the opposite scenario, where someone experienced something N2 that wasn't reported as occurring N1.

It wouldn't prove anything, necessarily, but would be interesting to know.

Terrible day at work, even worse headache. Catching up and speaking in a while.

710 has a small, but crucial mistake on review. I won't tell you what the mistake is, but don't take the post as gospel. As a measure of my overall analysis, however, it's still apt.


@JMich - if there are 4 scum we're down to LYLO for today plus 3 more days. I don't see that panning out - possible but unlikely.

So perhaps it's correct to just make our play assuming 3 or 3+1, whether or not that's the case. 3+1 would confuse the math since we wouldn't know that person's goal, but at the least there's no reason to assume they'll align with town when it comes to voting.

So why no lynch yesterday but not today? I think No lynch was a viable play yesterday because of having 2 roles on the table already plus the gambit presented in having Trent as a guardian plus some investigative power still in play. Unlike RW's day point about how "no one would" investigate Adalia's vanilla claim, someone(s) would certainly have jumped on Trent the way they jumped on me for hammering Trent.

I think it's much riskier to no lynch today - the gambit hinges on the hope we'll know more tomorrow, when it's quite possible we'll know the same or even less and may trust each other less. At the least, there's no town coalition now and I'm more doubtful one would present tomorrow when scum only need to put a light finger on the scale to tip it.

I give it even odds on whether we know more/less/same tomorrow. At this point we're not protecting anything, just stalling for time. And we more or less lose any ability to verify any claims that would be made on D4.

Today I'd rather gamble on lynching Lift today than no lynch, but I'd say the odds are long either way. The question seems to be whether we want to go out fighting and hoping for the best or sit tight and gamble on salvation to fall into our laps.

Great. Deadline. Any reason not to proceed with my reads and go from there?

Unless you're inclined to agree with JMich that we should just turtle and wait for D4.

But people should be aware that there's enough cross-pollinization on the table that it's going to be hard to share info on one person without potentially sharing info on a bunch. And at that point we're stuck facing the question of mass-claiming with a deadline looming.

Don't suppose the friendly wizard at the helm would care to extend the deadline 24 hours if we agree to actually move in a direction? He can ward off the spider by himself for a bit, right?

It's a pretty big spider.

I think I'm gonna do a re-read of dedo.

I could take it.

You're a bas...I mean, wise and wonderful wizard whose wisdom is beyond question! While I have no doubt you're powerful enough to defeat the spider on your own, or at least delay it, I wouldn't want to put you out in this life or death situation. ;)


So...that gives us 50 hours and 45 minutes. Is that enough time to roll out 1+ claims and still get a vote in?
If we are going no lynch (whether by vote or inertia) claims seem a bit riskier a prospect.

Either way, if we're moving towards something other than no lynch or random vote, I think we need to decide that in the next few hours to leave time for talk/claims plus analysis and vote.

We've moved pretty quickly in other days, but that hasn't exactly worked out so well for us.