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VOTE COUNT

Today it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Not voting - Sage103082, trentonlf, HypersomniacLive, RWarehall, Lifthrasil, JMich

<span class="bold">DAY 3 COUNTDOWN</span>
I'll be gone most of today for work, but will be back this evening. We are still at the point of mislynch and we lose unless the doctor (if still alive) can protect the correct person.

I hope Hyper shows back up soon as I really want to hear their defense. So for now I'm putting my vote on who else I think scum is.

Vote JMich
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trentonlf: We are still at the point of mislynch and we lose unless the doctor (if still alive) can protect the correct person.
And again with the doctor. Thank you.
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trentonlf: We are still at the point of mislynch and we lose unless the doctor (if still alive) can protect the correct person.
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JMich: And again with the doctor. Thank you.
Can you tell me why your response to this?
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trentonlf: We are still at the point of mislynch and we lose unless the doctor (if still alive) can protect the correct person.
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JMich: And again with the doctor. Thank you.
Sage was quicker than me, but: what do you mean by this?
My exam didn't go particularly well, so was not in a mafia-game mood last night. My only consolation is that i have another chance to retake part of it tomorrow, Friday at the latest, so I've spent most of today preparing for that and my Friday, written exam.


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trentonlf: I totally missed your post about having to unearth your mothers remains, I know that had to be hard on you and I'm sorry. I hope you are doing ok, and if you need to talk I'm here for you. I also hope your hand heals sooner rather than later as only having one hand to use would be no fun.
Thanks, the actual service is scheduled for later this month, still in the "bureaucratic and procedural BS that proceeds it" stage, but that's also quite heavy to deal with as it all feels very disrespectful to her.


I see a couple of people have said I'm their preferred lynch candidate Today, so I'm going to properly catch up and get to that. It'll probably take a good while before I post, though; still one handed, but at least pain-free for the most part today.
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HypersomniacLive: My exam didn't go particularly well, so was not in a mafia-game mood last night. My only consolation is that i have another chance to retake part of it tomorrow, Friday at the latest, so I've spent most of today preparing for that and my Friday, written exam.

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trentonlf: I totally missed your post about having to unearth your mothers remains, I know that had to be hard on you and I'm sorry. I hope you are doing ok, and if you need to talk I'm here for you. I also hope your hand heals sooner rather than later as only having one hand to use would be no fun.
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HypersomniacLive: Thanks, the actual service is scheduled for later this month, still in the "bureaucratic and procedural BS that proceeds it" stage, but that's also quite heavy to deal with as it all feels very disrespectful to her.

I see a couple of people have said I'm their preferred lynch candidate Today, so I'm going to properly catch up and get to that. It'll probably take a good while before I post, though; still one handed, but at least pain-free for the most part today.
Good luck for your re-taken exam tomorrow and get well soon!
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Sage103082: Can you tell me why your response to this?
Second Day 2 post

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Lifthrasil: Sage was quicker than me, but: what do you mean by this?
As above.

At this point in time, we do not know if the doctor is alive or not. But if we mislynch and the doctor is still alive, there's a 1 in 3 chance of scum choosing to kill the protected townie (1 in 2 for the doctor to protect town, 1 in 3 for the scum to pick the protected townie). If the doctor is known though, considering there's no self protection, the doctor will be the logical night kill target.

So making any assumption other than the doctor being dead is not something I see benefiting the town. And since that includes claiming town doctor, I would suggest that there is no such claim, which obviously makes claiming town vanilla or town vigilante equally bad, since it narrows down the scum choices.
It seems interesting that besides a throw off comment pointed at Sage and Lift, JMich seems to be focusing on me. Still trying to decide if that throw off means something, whether he's distancing from his scum buddy or creating doubt to defend Hyper. Could go either way.

I think I know what he is doing. I think he is trying to keep to safe topics where if he does get lynched there is no trail to his partner. If he were to push hard on anyone possibly connected to him, we might be able to read through it. But of all the things that have happened, this is it JMich? Flub may have listed his scum team in the thread, and I "slipped" by not qualifying the obvious day 1 double-tap? That is it? That is what you find noteworthy?

You post a vote list, but none of that movement seems to mean anything to you either? I also note the absence of a few notable things in that list...like those people who found excuses to stay off and not vte...but really no comment on your part about any of that? I wonder why?

I still am not sure about Hyper given that his personal life issues are consistent with his lack of question follow through, but I think these last posts have convinced me that JMich is one of the scum team. Let's treat it as fact!

Vote JMich
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JMich: So making any assumption other than the doctor being dead is not something I see benefiting the town. And since that includes claiming town doctor, I would suggest that there is no such claim, which obviously makes claiming town vanilla or town vigilante equally bad, since it narrows down the scum choices.
Again what? Who said anything about claiming? No one suggested claiming! This way of posting really starts to look desperate.

And while I agree that the specific trent post you quoted from Day 2 looked quite scummy, this time trent just mentioned the Doctor - and you try to make something out of it. although you yourself mentioned the Doctor more - and twice in arguably questionable context. (# and #[url=https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_47_it_tastes_like_chicken_you_wont_believe_its_flavorless/post574]574 )

So please explain to me why these two posts are not scummy, but trentonlfs last post is noteworthy?
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RWarehall: JMich seems to be focusing on me.
I'm not, but feel free to treat it as speculation instead of fact.

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RWarehall: I also note the absence of a few notable things in that list...like those people who found excuses to stay off and not vte...but really no comment on your part about any of that? I wonder why?
As I said, not as thorough a read as I'd like. Feel free to correct that.

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RWarehall: Vote JMich
Thank you for handing the scum team the win. Let's see if they hammer me or not.

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Lifthrasil: So please explain to me why these two posts are not scummy, but trentonlfs last post is noteworthy?
I am the doctor. I did protect Dessimu on N1. Thus why I'm snapping at both trent for mentioning the doctor (and fishing for him?) and RWarehall for his posts.
If both trent and RWarehall are town, the scum can vote me and hammer me. Failing that, they can also nightkill me. I'm going to ignore the game thread for ~12 hours and see if we lose or not.
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JMich: I am the doctor. I did protect Dessimu on N1. Thus why I'm snapping at both trent for mentioning the doctor (and fishing for him?) and RWarehall for his posts.
If both trent and RWarehall are town, the scum can vote me and hammer me. Failing that, they can also nightkill me. I'm going to ignore the game thread for ~12 hours and see if we lose or not.
I find that hard to believe. Especially a mere 23 minutes after you explained how bad it would be for town if the Doctor would claim. And then you claim Doctor. At L-2. And in 441 there was no reason for you to mention your 'own role' and suggest that the Doctor might tell whom he protected. You weakened that statement by saying that that isn't going to happen, but putting the idea out there 'To have something more than gut feeling the cop giving reads or the doctor stating whom he protected would be necessary' feels like fishing to me. Same your back and forth with RWare discussing the Doctor's knowledge, which would be unnecessary if you were the Doctor, but might be an underhanded fishing.

Sure, it is possible that you are the Doctor and just decided to play it in a way I don't understand. But all in all I have the feeling that you as town PR would have played differently and more.

A side note: trent's comment at Day 2 read to me more like he assumed that there was a second target, that had been successfully protected. If that had been the case, the statement would have been an indication of too much knowledge on trent's part and therefore a very good reason for the Doctor to suspect him. But since you now say you did what everyone expected and protected Dessimu, I don't see why you reacted so to trent's implied assumption that there was a second target that had been protected.

Still, I won't put you at L-1 yet. To easy for scum to end the Day and the game, if my feeling is wrong. So I will keep waiting for HSL's input. Even though he will try to muddy things up if he is scum. But maybe even that would tell us something.
VOTE COUNT

JMich @ L-2 - trentonlf, RWarehall

Not voting - Sage103082, HypersomniacLive, Lifthrasil, JMich

<span class="bold">DAY 3 COUNTDOWN</span>

Thank you for handing the scum team the win. Let's see if they hammer me or not.
Except the game isn't over. The scum team still has to worry about piling on quickly with the last two votes because if they are blocked, they lose, because a mislynch only makes it 3-2. That is, of course, if you are not scum yourself...a big IF...

For all the analysis you are claiming, it doesn't add up. I'm happy where my vote lies. At some point we do have to start making a decision. I made mine and your posts just make me more certain.
trentonlf said he missed my post relating to my mother's remains being unearthed, but I didn't make a separate post about it; it was the first paragraph of my post #578 which makes me wonder if he actually reads what people post in full and/or carefully, or just cherry-picks to fit his suspicions.

He also seems to project his own scum-play on others, disregarding that what he'd do/does as scum is not necessarily what others would do, yet still use it as an additional argument for his suspicion.

Things in the physical world are as they are fro me, and I'm trying as best I can to do my part. I'm sorry you think it's not enough or suspect, but I can't change things.

Sage103082, of all people, accuses me of being aloof. More importantly, though, she says that I've been trying not to draw attention to myself while at the same time accuses me of having been on a fishing expedition to find out if Dessimu's claim was true or not. If I were scum trying to avoid attention, why would I be going around trying to fish this sort of info out of town, when I (should) know that it''d look suspicious? Did I run with it, hoping no-one would notice?

But let's assume for a moment that I am scum, and was doing what she accuses me of. If Dessimu lied about his claim (which, as already said, I don't believe, and thought he was likely to be the Parity Cop even before he claimed), the actual Cop would continue to do their investigations. They then would have two options - never claim (out of concern about not being believed?), and try to convince others of their "reads"; in this case it would have been anyone's game, so why would I expose myself on D2? Or, they would (have to) come forward to make their case based on their findings. Would they be believed, and if so, by enough to achieve a lynch? Wouldn't they make a nice for scum mislynch candidate based on arguments along the line "you're scum trying to frame someone by false claiming"? Why would I as scum prevent that from potentially happening? More so by "fishing" about it on D2?

Unless everyone assumes that I'm dumb or foolish enough to do it anyway, or that my scum-buddies wouldn't advice me against it should I have thought it to be a good idea, and I still went against my team, and risked being a potential lynch this early in the game in the process, it just doesn't add up. I explained why I was asking people about Dessimu. You don't want to believe me? Fine, I don't see what else I can or should do to convince you.

Then we have the condemning "evidence" of me being still alive Today. Presumably because everyone expected me to die last Night? Why? Do you think that it was a coincidence that Bookwyrm627 spoke of N3/D4? That he picked that randomly? And everyone but RWarehall is so innocently town that they can't see scum calculating their odds (just like I assume Boowkeyrm627 did), and thinking that they probably have a better chance at killing me N3 should the Doctor be alive and choose to protect me N2. As is no-one but Lifthrasil factoring in that, seeing all the talk on this, scum may (additionally) even wait to see if town does their work for them and mislynch me Today. Which would save them the trouble of having to kill me, while having a rather decent chance at winning the game on N3.

Additionally, no-one seems to have a reasonably satisfactory answer as to why I would/should have been the(?) more certain choice for N2 over RWarehall, who's been not only town-read openly by the majority since Yesterday (i.e. scum can't hope to mislynch him, if he's town), but turns out to have been right about flubbucket, something that scum knew all along, and may, given enough time, connect the other scum to flubbucket. Not saying I think RWarehall's necessarily scum; I only have one thing (will get to it later), and not sure it'd be particularly convincing to the rest of you, especially given the suspicion on me, but I can't rule out that he has fooled us by playing a pretty damn convincing town-game. Now, one may argue that the Doctor would choose RWarehall over me. This is quite likely, but the only one that knows for a fact whom they protected is the Doctor themself. The rest of us, scum included, can only guess and speculate, and it's best town leaves it at that, should the Doctor be still around, and we lynch correctly Today.


I was going to close this post by saying that while nobody seems to care about what I think besides defending myself, I'm going to share some thoughts anyway, but upon refreshing the thread I see a development I didn't think would happen.

JMich is known to be a strong player at analysing data and going over possibilities and odds, and plays on this strength of his as either alignment. He makes post #668 starting with "if we mislynch", goes over the N3 NK odds for 3 town vs 2 scum with the Doctor in play, and argues how it's best for the Doctor to stay hidden; pretty inline with JMich, regardless of alignment.

I can read his reaction to trentonlf and RWarehall as coming from the hidden Doctor (not sure I read all that that Lifthrasil does in his post #471, seems like something JMich would say, regardless of alignment). What I don't quite get is why he'd go and do exactly what he just advised against, followed by that [emphasis added] "I'm going to ignore the game thread for ~12 hours and see if we lose or not". I can see him potentially fearing his claim won't be believed if he makes it later, but I can see him factoring this in as either alignment, after how things turned out with Dessimu, and what those that remained on his wagon said . But it doesn't make sense to make the claim and go "I'll see if we lose or not in about 12hrs", at least none I can see right now. If he's the Doctor as he claimed, he should stay put and try everything he can to prevent not only his own mislynch, but any mislynch. Because if he is the Doctor, and his mislynch is prevented, yet he still dies at night, we only lose if we mislynch Today. Otherwise we still have a chance on D4. So, what's with positioning himself as a mere observer, letting time pass and the deadline come closer without being proactive? Why make that choice when nothing is determined yet? Is he scum hoping the claim will save him if he stays low for a while? This laying low reminds me of game #40 where he did the same as scum when he got under pressure and actual risk of getting lynched. And it worked back then.

So, JMich, care to help me see why and how all this makes sense from a town side, and is the best course you, as the (claimed) Doctor should be taking at this point?


Sorry it's taking ages, but this typing with only my left hand is not only pretty hard, but also very tiring for my hand, so need to take breaks.