So I tried a Radeon 9550 and 9800XXL and the game also displays fine!
I quickly tested two ATI cards with that MSI overlay software. 1600 x 1200 at high details.
FX5950 Ultra
Start of level 1: 28 fps
Start of level 2: 18 fps
Medion Radeon 9800XXL
Start of level 1: 31 fps
Start of level 2: 19fps
Radeon 9550
Start of level 1: 11 fps
Start of level 2: 6 fps
The only difference I noticed is that some shadows are softer on the Nvidia card and very sharp and blocky on the ATI card. In terms of performance a card roughly three times as fast as a Radeon 9800 would be required to play at 60 fps at 1600 x 1200 resolution.
Softer shadows on Nvidia FX5950 Ultra:
http://i.imgur.com/QS1uTrp.png Sharper shadows on ATI Radeon 9550:
http://i.imgur.com/VWb57kE.png In terms of driver I went with 4.8 based on these findings:
The readme file mentions this:
Problems may be experienced with ATI Catalyste Version 4.2 drivers. Use version 4.1, or an earlier version than 4.2.
But ships with 4.2 on the DVD.
Looking at the drivers from around 2004 and I was unable to find anything on the AMD site.
Guru 3D has some information and also old drivers.
4.2 has this entry:
Setting the display option to 640x480 or 800x600 in the game Splinter Cell no longer results in the game menu flickering
4.4 has this entry:
The shadow of the characters in the game Splinter Cell Pandora Tomorrow are now being displayed properly
4.6 has this entry:
Starting a game of Splinter Cell Pandora Tomorrow under Windows XP with an ATI RADEON 9000 PRO installed and the display set to 1024x768 and the graphics quality set to high no longer results in flickering textures
4.7 has this entry:
Flashing textures in the water are no longer noticed when running Splinter Cell Pandora Tomorrow under Windows XP with an ATI RADEON X800 XT installed
4.8 has this entry:
Splinter Cell Pandora Tomorrow:Display corruption is no longer noticed when launching a multiplayer game under Windows XP with an ATI RADEON 9200 installed