If you subscribe to the Pure Random theory, it should still be 9.1%
However, there are other models that suggest a non-recursive scheme, which would give a number closer to 31.8% & still others that land in between.

Well, I just questioned why he voted for me when he had some suspicion of someone else. In any case, the RVS seems well under way, so
Unvote Popinjay

But how could whether nmillar's been mafia before have any effect on what is a totally separate random draw?

My personal favourite: The conspiracy theory.
The draw is not random.
Roles are assigned to amuse the moderator.
We're told it's random so we don't suspect favouritism.
As we don't have any information with which to deduce the assignations, for us it may as well be random, giving the mod a clear consience.

It's quite simple. 1/4 players are mafia (based on previous game), so based on probability one should be mafia once per 4 games. This is nmillar's 4th game a he has yet to be mafia, so my conclusion is obvious, he has to be mafia. ;-) This is my absolutely holeproof math. :-)

FOS:Popinjay. I think you understand why.

Eyeball is just as likely to have drawn mafia again.

Back to the point though; the most suspicious are those who involved in the early bandwagoning, though it is still too early to name any firm suspects.

Just to mix things up a little, who is who?

I am the trash can, which explains why I tend to talk crap ;)

Exactly! Not that I am of course. >.>

No really.

that was what I tried to say in my previous post and what Rodzaju is also going at. But since its purely based on meta game speculations, I really doubt it will have any hold in reality. As nmillar also said it would apply to other players as well. Maybe less meta game and more focus on. Hmm well not really much to focus on - except the apparently strange focus from some players on voting nmillar.

First, I won't tell for now.
Second, really? you are electrical trash can?

Perhaps a garbage disposal unit? Those could be what I call electrical trash can's. But he didn't say anything about it being electrical.

On the off hand, I too won't be claiming anything this early in - doesn't really help much.

I guess I'm about as electrical as I am whiteware.
I'm actually a lovely gleaming chrome, if you ignore the odd splashes below the rim...
... I'm actually gonna shut up now before I sound too much like a toilet!

But aren't appliances electrical machines? And Damnation was killed by unplugging.

Well, this claim seems to have lead to something, interesting or useless. It could have been a garbage disposal but I wouldn't come close to calling it a trash can.

I'm not going to claim anything though.

I hadn't thought of this as claiming anything, more just putting faces (?shapes) to the voices.