Alright. I'm finally back home. Dedo has made his decision and I quite agree with it. I still think Joe has a good chance of being scum. If he's lone scum, this will end the game and if he is team-scum, we'll have to figure out who his buddy is tomorrow. But first we use what time we have left. Because placing the second vote on someone is, where the real danger of quicklynch starts. Then even one scum could quickhammer, without any coordination, if both dedo and I are wrong.

@RW and Pooka: what do you think. RW defended Joe and Joe defended Pooka. How do we proceed now?


But first I'll try to recreate the post that GOG ate when I tried to send it from my mobile.

@RW: you call for people not voting but posting and discussing their intents to vote. Did you miss, that that was exactly what we have been doing? dedo, I and even you have posted, that we see either Joe or Pooka as the best lynch. As long as we were talking theoretically and rating likely scumminess, Joe was one of your preferred targets. But that suddenly changed, when Joe became a real target because I put my vote on him. Then suddenly you called that vote, with which you should agree according to your previous rating, scummy and started to defend Joe. Did you get cold feet? Was it an attempt to deflect attention away from Joe?

@Joe: feeling smug because of me having been right and you having been wrong sounds tempting. But I'd rather not pay the price of letting scum win just to feel smug. Also, if you are scum, wouldn't you be the one who gets to feel smug if you make me vote the wrong person? I'd rather win AND feel smug about it! ;-)
But jokes aside: if you really are Town, I am quite convinced that your most disastrous scenario has to be true. If you aren't scum, then Pooka probably is. Together with RW. ... But my problem is, there is something off about that triangle of you, RW and Pooka. Why is RW kind of defending you while you vote for him? Well, he didn't word it as a defense, but he still asked me to retract my vote on you, which is in effect a defense.

So much to think about. Now I really want some input from RW, Pooka and from Joe.

I think we now have the discussion from everyone.
It's go along with Dedo where if I've read it right both you (Lift) and Pooka agree and he's not my top choice or the other 3 have to be unanimous.

It looks like the choice is going to be Joe.

Not necessarily. There's still four of us who are active. But two of these four might be scum, if we are in a two-scum scenario. That's something to keep in mind.

Something else that I forgot in the last post:
You've had a vote on you for quite some time and there was no serious push to put more votes on you. That can mean one of two things:
Either you are scum and your buddy (who might be Joe or Pooka) doesn't really want to bus you
Or Joe is scum and you are Town, but the second scum (Pooka) holds back, because he might still need Town cred tomorrow

Did I overlook something?

It does make a Pooka/Lift team seem less likely, just like with your vote hanging so long on Joe, it's unlikely me/Pooka.

Meaning if there is a two man team and you are Town, its Pooka/Joe. Still leaves open 1-man possibilities like you or Joe since that can't be Pooka either which will be easy enough to sort out tomorrow.

@RW: another thought, consider this: if you really are Town, then Joe has to be scum! I know I'm Town. Pooka can't be scum alone. So either Joe is scum with Pooka or Joe is scum alone.

@Pooka: the same is valid for you, though a bit less strong. RW is very unlikely to be scum alone. He only can be scum if the scenario of the Scum who can both use a PR and kill in the same Night is true. That scenario was conveniently proposed by Joe. Distancing? Or is Joe lone scum who doesn't want to be exposed as the only likely lone-scum?

Sure, each of you also has to consider scum-combination that involve me. And I have to consider a RW+Pooka team as well. But some posts back Pooka pointed out that Joe has the highest crossection of all likely scum teams and that is still true. So yes, no matter how I turn it and from what angle I try to look, I am returning to the feeling that Joe is probably scum.

Well. I'm off to bed.

Mm. Tempting. Okay I'll just BE SCUM THEN, GOOD IDEA LIFT.

About 24 hours to go vote count

Being Voted ------------------------------------------------Voted by
RWarehall---------------------------------------------------JoeSapphire (Post 771)
JoeSapphire-------------------------------------------------dedoporno (post 795)


Closest to lynch is RWarehall and JoeSapphire at L-2

Maybe Lift is right, and it is pooka after all. Maybe I could convince people that they'd be better to join me in lynching pooka than they would to vote me. Or at least more entertaining...

But that would mean comprimising my ideals and I refuse to do it.

Dedo's vote is wrong, he's voting based on what statistically is mechanically most likely, and not based on anything that is specific to this game.

Would I have killed ZFR? Would I have tried to kill RW? OR Would scum-teammate RW have tried to bus me day two? Would I have targeted the same person Carr tageted, or would I have targeted Carr himself?

Fuck it's cold tonight. And I can barely keep my eyes openly

Yes! Thank you for the admission (or change of allegiance, if that's what you did). It feels good to be right! ;-)

But seriously, your second post doesn't do anything to change today's outcome. You refuse to switch to Pooka and state yourself that you are just too stubborn to change your mind. That's not a healthy attitude. Let's have a look at what your reasons could be.

- you could be Town stubborn enough to lose the game as a matter of principle. Because if you're Town, the most likely scenario is Pooka+RW=scum. ... So it could be an 'I'll show them - let them lynch me and lose with me' reaction towards dedo and me, because we keep suspecting you. Possible, but also kind of petty.
- you could be scum, stubbornly set on either bussing his partner (RW) or being bussed yourself.
- you could be scum, stubbornly set on being the bus, rather than bussing his partner (Pooka), because you hope that your partner will save the day for your faction Tomorrow
- you could be lone scum who has given up

So, basically your refusal to change your mind is NAI, but in any case isn't good for Town. I guess it's one of the last three options and I'm willing to take the risk and work out who the remaining scum is tomorrow.

In case that you really are Town, lynching you could of course lose us the game. But that risk is given with any lynch target by now. So, I'm ready to re-place my vote on you. However, we have about 16 hours left. I'll wait for Pooka for a few hours. But I won't let the Day end on a no-lynch if I can prevent it.

Joe's defense sounds like buddying up to me. Dunno about RW, except in the case of a scumteam involving Joe, RW would be shooting himself in the foot, which is something I doubt a Joe + RW scumteam would agree to. That still doesn't do much to make Joe mechanically better than he is now, and would still like to vote him.

To add to RW's call for people not to vote but to discuss their intents...isn't that we've been doing all this Day? Trying to make sense of this mess and voicing what we see right?

I knew I should have written a post that would have changed todays outcome... dang. This is on me guys, sorry.

Ah. There you are. So, you still have Joe as likely scum and are willing to vote. RW pretends to be willing to vote Joe too, while at the same time stalling and calling me to withdraw my vote - and yes, you are right. What he asked us to do is what we have been doing all Day.

I don't see any reason to delay this any further. We seem to have a consensus after all. If I'm wrong and there are two scum, we lose of course. If I'm wrong and there is only one scum, it can only be RW (unlikely as that seems) and we lynch him Tomorrow. But most likely we are right and Joe is either scum alone or with one of you two.

vote Joe


Don't worry. If we lose this, I'll forgive you! ;-)

Okay. I hope we're not wrong in our assessment.

vote Joe

Oh good, I was worried that YOU wouldn't forgive ME. My mind is now at ease...