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adaliabooks: trent - general suspiciousness, has basically claimed to have lied (if I'm understanding him correctly)
.
Yes I did. I am not the tanner, I am the minion. I know who the wolf is, but I'm not saying unless I know whether or not hyper swapped me and someone else's role. If he did not I'm not saying, but if he did I will let you know who the wolf is.
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zeogold: At...least I'm being complimented, I guess?
Accused, but complimented. It's nice to know people at least half-care.
Not even one of you mooks has so much as donated into the tip jar, much less bought one of my albums.
*plays trombone louder in an attempt to wake HSL*
Yes, it's a compliment. Whatever scum role you have, you're doing a heck of a job.

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blotunga: I seem to have a large crosshair on me
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zeogold: To be fair, even you have to admit it's a very weirdly-shaped birthmark.
And you make me laugh. Doesn't change that you have to lose. :-)
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bler144: @Zeo - unless I missed it, how did dedo respond when you said "the left two"? He just gave you the result with no comment on your request?
I didn't say "the left two", I specifically said "the left card and the middle card". Apologies if I keep saying "left two" by habit.
And no, he had nothing to say about it other than which card was what.

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trentonlf: I am not the tanner
http://66.media.tumblr.com/3e1982f14851800de0b469ed62639502/tumblr_niawkjJD811u5firdo1_1280.jpg

Oh, give me a break. I haven't heard anything so utterly fake since my parents told me I was adopted.
I'm not swallowing this for even a hot second. There's no way the minion would give himself up like that before we even know there was a swap at all.
I'm now 100% sure you're either wolf or tanner. I don't know your playstyle, but I'm gonna say a very cornered and very desperate wolf.
Allow me to explain further what I think's going on here:
A) He's really a minion, but hoping that HSL will bait by saying "Yes, I swapped you!", lying in it. He then will fake-reveal two random people (just a guess, he'd probably name one of the three most apparent targets right now: me, Trial, or Blotunga) whereupon HSL will be like "Nah bruh, just kiddin', this alcohol, y'know how it is...gets the ol' noggin' mixed up.", leading him to be like "oh crap, GG bois" hoping that we go for those fake targets.
B) He's a wolf who's faking minion in the hopes that HSL will lie so he can be like "Whoops! Oh, bother! I revealed my targets! Oh, well...guess you'd better go for them while leaving me here! Yup! Yessir..." and get away scott free.
C) He's a tanner who, if HSL swapped him, will be like "Suprise, y'all! I was actually our wolfman! I just didn't say so in the hopes y'all wouldn't lynch me if he lied. GG NO RE.", whereupon HSL reveals he was lying, and he gets himself lynched.

Somebody who knows more about him, tell me which of those he'd be likelier to do. I assume everybody here is really good, so my gut goes with C, but how he's playing so far smacks heavily of B.

Of course, all of these assumes that he thinks HSL will bait/lie, which would be the natural conclusion currently given that he demands to hear what Trent says before he reveals anything.
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adaliabooks: zeo says he chose the left two cards and one of those was the villager. cristi says card 3 is the villager.

Assuming card 3 would be the one on the right then it doesn't look like zeo had any geniune peek. Which kind of rules him out as the lone wolf (ditto for cristi as well really).

So if neither of them are lone wolves then there must be a wolf in the villagers and it's not worth the risk lynching either seer.
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adaliabooks:
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zeogold: Also, I didn't get any number business. As soon as Dedo said I had a choice of another person or two unknowns, I immediately said "the left card and the middle card" by force of habit. I know that as seer, seeing two of the uknown ones is always your best bet, and it's a long story why I always choose the two left ones, but let's just say that somehow, those usually end up being the most useful.
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adaliabooks: Care to elaborate on this cristi?
Did you get given numbers or indicated in anyway which cards you could choose from?
That's a good catch. dedo told me the cards were numbered 1-3 and I could choose two of those numbers to pick the cards. There was no mention of left, center, right (but I admit, in my head, I pictured the cards arranged like that). Unless zeo is being clever, then he wasn't actually a lone wolf. He could be the minion, He could be one of two wolves. I still doubt tanner makes this play. The possibility of two wolves seems more likely.

I see now that trent has claimed minion. This is such a mind-game.
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cristigale: you're doing a heck of a job.
...oh, you're serious.
...
Thanks!
And it's worth mentioning that you're amazingly good at making people believe you for whatever role you are. Either that, or I'm amazingly bad at making people believe me.
...wait, maybe this is why I'm not selling any albums.

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cristigale: Unless zeo is being clever
You know me. I always am.
Now, if you will be so kind as to help me get my elbow out of this trombone slide, I would be much obliged.
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bler144: @Zeo - unless I missed it, how did dedo respond when you said "the left two"? He just gave you the result with no comment on your request?
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zeogold: I didn't say "the left two", I specifically said "the left card and the middle card". Apologies if I keep saying "left two" by habit.
And no, he had nothing to say about it other than which card was what.
So you said what you said, and he said "the middle card is x and the left card is y"?


post-merge

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zeogold: snip
I think our best play is definitely to tell Trent in advance how we'll interpret his bluff when he makes it. And we should also help him sort out how likely HSL is to bluff his action.

Seems solid strategy.


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trentonlf: snip
@Trent - without knowing if you were swapped or not, what's your take on cristi v. zeo? What's happening there? What's your take on trial/blotunga?
Post edited December 26, 2016 by bler144
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bler144: I think our best play is definitely to tell Trent in advance how we'll interpret his bluff when he makes it. And we should also help him sort out how likely HSL is to bluff his action.

Seems solid strategy.
I know it seems stupid, but I can already see the WIFOM game he's playing and I'm not about to engage in that little dance, trying to defuse it before it even gets the opportunity to get there.
I want HSL to just flat-out tell the truth and end this thing, because I know if he baits, one of what I just said will happen, and all that will serve to do is draw things out longer and confuse us further.
If Trent didn't think that HSL would lie and I just ruined it, I apologize. But if my theory is right and he thought HSL would lie, better to just get past that confusion and get straight to the point before he can shake the heat.

And yes, left card was wolf, middle card was villager.
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bler144: @Trent - without knowing if you were swapped or not, what's your take on cristi v. zeo? What's happening there? What's your take on trial/blotunga?
cristi vs zeo, one is for sure lying. trial/blotunga, two villagers where one is really trying to figure it out and one is new and confused as to what they need to do.
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trentonlf: Yes I did. I am not the tanner, I am the minion.
Yeah

Trent is either tanner or werewolf and if cristi's theory is correct then blotunga will be the other one. Seeing blotunga I get the feeling he is the tanner which means trent could be the werewolf. I go with option A that zeo mentioned except trent would not name blotunga as the werewolf since he could be tanner.
I mean, like HSL is pretty smart and all. Pretty good at poking and prodding and figuring stuff out. And you don't know whatever he knows - perhaps he flipped you.

Not sure why you're trying to coach him.

Or are you coaching someone else? Just can't manage your impatience?
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zeogold: snip
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bler144: I think our best play is definitely to tell Trent in advance how we'll interpret his bluff when he makes it. And we should also help him sort out how likely HSL is to bluff his action.

Seems solid strategy.
How could it not? ;-)

Does anyone not see zeo's post (#244) as scum?
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trentonlf: cristi vs zeo, one is for sure lying. trial/blotunga, two villagers where one is really trying to figure it out and one is new and confused as to what they need to do.
You...do recall trial/blotunga can't both be villagers unless both cristi/zeo are lying, right?

And at risk of being a dick, the observation that both cristi and zeo aren't both seer doesn't really illuminate things much ;)


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Hunter65536: snip
Your post was 6 min after Trent's - curious if you'd refreshed and seen it before you posted.
Not caught up, fell asleep, then woke up a bit ago, so decided to check the game. From what has been posted recently:

@zeogold, I'm going to ask nicely - could you, please, shut up? You have an odd sense and way of applying heat, especially if you're the Seer as you want us all to believe.


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trentonlf: cristi vs zeo, one is for sure lying. trial/blotunga, two villagers where one is really trying to figure it out and one is new and confused as to what they need to do.
So, Santa, could you clarify the following for me? Whoever the Seer is, both claimed to have peeked a villager card. That's one. You appear to say that both gogtrial34987 and blotunga are villagers. That makes three. Are you saying that drealmer7 is lying? Or that we have four villagers?


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Hunter65536: Yeah

Trent is either tanner or werewolf and if cristi's theory is correct then blotunga will be the other one. Seeing blotunga I get the feeling he is the tanner which means trent could be the werewolf. I go with option A that zeo mentioned except trent would not name blotunga as the werewolf since he could be tanner.
So, which is it? Is trentonlf either Tanner or Werewolf, of is it zeogold's case A?
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HypersomniacLive: So, Santa, could you clarify the following for me? Whoever the Seer is, both claimed to have peeked a villager card. That's one. You appear to say that both gogtrial34987 and blotunga are villagers. That makes three. Are you saying that drealmer7 is lying? Or that we have four villagers?
I am guessing on gogtrial and blotunga, I have not actual idea if they are both villagers or not. All I know is who the actual wolf is.