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bler144: From my perspective that means 2/3 chance with 2 liars in trent/blotunga/trial pool. As trial noted, if zeo is town, all 3 liars are accounted for in town/ser pool. If cristi is town 3/4 liars (or 3/3 if wolf is the 3rd unpeeked card) are accounted for in town/seer pool, at least one of which has to be wolf, right?
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cristigale: Not if we are dealing with a lone-wolf. If lone-wolf, then zeo could be the lone wolf. If we have a lone-wolf, the liars include:
1. tanner
2. hunter
3. minion or werewolf
I'm pretty sure that first part is what I said, but not really inclined to fight over it. ;)

On the latter part, I'm not sure why you assume the hunter is a liar. Guess it depends on the personality of the person with the role, perhaps, but personally I'd assume you play it more defensively rather than lying to draw the lynch and hoping you've individually got the best judgment.
Here is why I thought zeo peeked Mason (and still find it possible). It starts with zeo's first post that follows. Adalia already posted that he was a Mason. Please remember my point of view - I am the Seer and I peeked at a Mason card.

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bler144: I have no idea how to strategize for this game, so I'll just say that barring a change, I know someone who was definitely town at game start.
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zeogold: How it normally works is that somebody says they know something or claims a role straight off the bat, so given what you've said, you have to be either our seer, our robber, a mason, or just lying.
Considering my own role, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you're the robber.
This first post set off huge alarm bells. First, when I saw bler's post mentioned above, I had considered posting something similar, but held back. I didn't think it was good to claim so early. Zeo goes 'out on a limb' to say bler is a robber. How could he know that bler is the robber and not the mason or the seer? I'm starting to look at the rules now to see if I misread something. I'm looking at the robber and troubleamker to see if there is someway someone else could know this. There's no way someone should know the same information I do. In retrospect, it can be argued it was a guess, but at the time it was too much of a coincidence for me.

So I'm confused, not that zeo is seemingly claiming Seer but that he seems to know the exact same information I do. I don't see how that is possible, but I know I can't let it slide so I challenge him.

He directly claims Seer in the next post.

Shortly after, as soon as zeo realizes that Adalia claimed mason, he responds to adalia with this:
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zeogold: So, anybody wanna claim they're adalia's wake-up buddy?
Right away he's looking for a possible partner for adalia. Now this next part may have been my mistake (i.e. reading too much into it). I thought the "anybody" in it was a leading question. I can now see it as either a leading question or not. Regardless, there is no reason for the real Seer to be prompting for that information at that point.

As soon as I counter claim Seer, zeo claims one of his 'peeks' was werewolf. And this is why I'm pretty sure there is a lone-wolf and not two. Either minion-Zeo or lone-werewolf Zeo knows that one of the cards is a werewolf. The closer scum can stay to the truth, the better. In the same post he says:

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zeogold: I'll hold off on the other one, 'cause it could be useful.
The "other one" refers to his other peek. So it could be useful, but then in this post he says:

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zeogold: The other card I saw was a villager. Not exciting, but it is what it is. What are you gonna say your other card was?
That's all he says in that post about his second 'peek'. No mention about why he was now choosing to reveal it or why it was not longer useful to remained undisclosed. Later he tries to hold my hesitancy to reveal the second peek against me.

Once zeo claimed Villager, I'm not sure if he actually peeked at the Mason card or the Villager card. At this point, I've already said that I did not peek at a Werewolf card. I'm not sure why he says his other peek was Villager. Either he is betting that Villager is remaining and is hoping to match my claim. Or he may have actually looked at the Villager card and I read too much into what he said in those opening posts, thinking he knew more than he did. It also is possibile that he could be the minion and claims peeking at a werewolf and villager because they are both safe.

So yeah, I may have played that wrong. Zeo's moves are calculated. I hope everyone can see that I'm learning as I go. And those of you who know me should hopefully know this is not the way I would approach werewolf, minion, or tanner. I would not jump in off-the-cuff and make a counter claim like that.

I chose not to reveal my second peek to make sure I wasn't giving anything away too early. It may not have mattered at that point, but I wasn't taking any chances. If I was scum, I wouldn't have volunteered that the werewolf card was not one that I picked. I wish I had peeked at the werewolf card (assuming there is one) but I didn't. I'd like the 100% guarantee (at least for myself) that there is a lone-wolf. I think it's most likely a lone-wolf.

So my main question to myself is stll - is zeo werewolf or minion? Still leaning he is werewolf. Hearing more from our claimed villagers would be helpful.
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cristigale: This first post set off huge alarm bells. First, when I saw bler's post mentioned above, I had considered posting something similar, but held back. I didn't think it was good to claim so early. Zeo goes 'out on a limb' to say bler is a robber. How could he know that bler is the robber and not the mason or the seer?
I already said my style is to try to draw out early claims.
The reason I knew that Bler was the robber is because he said he knew someone else's role. The only people who can do this are mason, seer, and robber, and the way he phrased it made me think seer or robber. There's only one seer (me), so I know he ain't that. It leaves only mason and robber, and robber is the more likely since, in my experience, the mason will say something more along the lines of "someone else can back up my claim" or "I and another person can confirm each other" rather than "I know what someone else is".
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cristigale: 10. Hunter65536 - Tanner
Wrong
How did you get the impression one of trent or blotunga could be hunter?

I've seen this post but I didn't quite get what you were saying, how are you sure that neither trent nor blotunga is a tanner?
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cristigale: Town - all the claimed roles and by extension drealmer, also like what I've seen from gog. Wonder if Hunter is the Tanner. Which leaves Blotunga or trent as the Hunter and wolf/minion.
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bler144: On the latter part, I'm not sure why you assume the hunter is a liar. Guess it depends on the personality of the person with the role, perhaps, but personally I'd assume you play it more defensively rather than lying to draw the lynch and hoping you've individually got the best judgment.
I'm not convinced that Hunter (player) is the Tanner. That is just my guess at this point. Trent and blotunga have both said so little it's hard to tell. I thought Hunter's (the player) joking and dodging about his role was an attempt to draw attention his way. He could also be the minion.
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cristigale: That's all he says in that post about his second 'peek'. No mention about why he was now choosing to reveal it or why it was not longer useful to remained undisclosed.
I was waiting for the deluge of villager claims, but Adalia straight-out asked for me to reveal the other card and there was a fair bit of heat mounting on me, so I'm not sure what other option I had. Saying "Nah, imma wait." at that point would have made me seem a tad sus, wouldn't you say?

It seems like pretty much the main defense you've got riding on you is "Zeo's acting too smart and this isn't the way I normally play." I admittedly don't know enough about you or others, but that just sounds weak to me.
You knowing Adalia was a lone mason is admittedly a strong point, and I don't really have anything on that except to guess that the third card in the middle is a mason and that you got [un?]lucky in the guess, since you were trying to bus yourself and ended up accidentally looking good.
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cristigale: 10. Hunter65536 - Tanner
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Hunter65536: Wrong
How did you get the impression one of trent or blotunga could be hunter?

I've seen this post but I didn't quite get what you were saying, how are you sure that neither trent nor blotunga is a tanner?
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cristigale: Town - all the claimed roles and by extension drealmer, also like what I've seen from gog. Wonder if Hunter is the Tanner. Which leaves Blotunga or trent as the Hunter and wolf/minion.
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Hunter65536:
I addressed most if this in the last post. I'm not sure trent or Blotunga are not the Tanner. Either could be. If you are the Tanner, by PoE that left the Hunter and minion/wolf. I did fail to consider that gogtrial might be the Hunter. It makes sense for the Hunter to claim Villager. If gogtrial is the Hunter than one of you, trent, or Blotunga are the other Villager.
Edit through post:
I should clarify a bit about the villagers. I honestly did not expect there to be this many villager claims. I was expecting at least one of them to pretend like they're a power role (i.e. a role that wakes up at night). After all, what would stop somebody from saying THEY'RE the lone mason and that Adalia is lying (remember, he has nothing to prove it aside from the fact that Cristi says there was a mason card in the center)? Or for somebody to say that they're the hunter rather than...well...Hunter? They're easy claims to cause a ruckus with, but no, our wolf chose villager instead, as did our tanner, taking the "easy" way out for some bizarre reason. Disappointing, really.
I figured that there would only be ONE extra villager claim, not two.

Also, I'm pretty sure Hunter's telling the truth about his claim. Nobody's disputed him on it, and there's no reason for him to lie about it unless he's a tanner. Either way, he's pretty much off the voting list and another one in the "wasted vote" section along with me and Cristi.
In theory, he could be a wolf who's trying to make sure he doesn't get voted, but if so, it doesn't explain our other 2 fake villagers.

I say that we have a tanner, a wolf, and an actual villager somewhere among Blotunga, Trent, and Trial. Which is going to make this very, very difficult.
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cristigale: That's all he says in that post about his second 'peek'. No mention about why he was now choosing to reveal it or why it was not longer useful to remained undisclosed.
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zeogold: I was waiting for the deluge of villager claims, but Adalia straight-out asked for me to reveal the other card and there was a fair bit of heat mounting on me, so I'm not sure what other option I had. Saying "Nah, imma wait." at that point would have made me seem a tad sus, wouldn't you say?
No, I wouldn't say. If you are town, you don't cave to pressure. Scum do that.

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zeogold: It seems like pretty much the main defense you've got riding on you is "Zeo's acting too smart and this isn't the way I normally play." I admittedly don't know enough about you or others, but that just sounds weak to me.
You knowing Adalia was a lone mason is admittedly a strong point, and I don't really have anything on that except to guess that the third card in the middle is a mason and that you got [un?]lucky in the guess, since you were trying to bus yourself and ended up accidentally looking good.
I've pointed out that you know this game and it is easy for you to plan something like this. I think you're having a ball and playing your heart out as scum (you remind me of yogs in that sense). Just because you claimed first does not make your claim superior. In fact, as others have pointed out, it's the scum move to make. I am telling the truth so there is no reason to hide what I see as potentially sub-optimal play after the fact. I don't need to perfect, I'm not afraid to admit I made a mistake - I'm town.
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cristigale: I've pointed out that you know this game and it is easy for you to plan something like this. I think you're having a ball and playing your heart out as scum (you remind me of yogs in that sense). Just because you claimed first does not make your claim superior. In fact, as others have pointed out, it's the scum move to make. I am telling the truth so there is no reason to hide what I see as potentially sub-optimal play after the fact. I don't need to perfect, I'm not afraid to admit I made a mistake - I'm town.
I'm admittedly having a ball, although I could probably be playing stronger.

I'm not sure how me claiming first or you admitting a slip-up makes you more believable, but very well.

At...least I'm being complimented, I guess?
Accused, but complimented. It's nice to know people at least half-care.
Not even one of you mooks has so much as donated into the tip jar, much less bought one of my albums.
*plays trombone louder in an attempt to wake HSL*
A lot has happened.

I'm on cristi's side. zeo is giving off all kinds of bad vibes.


Problem is, I don't know whether he's doing it on purpose and subtlety hoping to draw the vote (tanner or minion) or if he is genuinely trying to misdirect us to the villagers to vote because he is lone wolf...

The way I see it there are a number of options:

Assuming cristi is telling the truth.
The last card could be a power role - which means one of the power roles is lying, plus one seer and two wolves. I don't think this is particularly likely (power roles all claimed early when there was a chance of counter claim) and not really worth considering, even if one PR is lying than there needs to be one wolf in the other 3 and they are the better bet.

The last card is a wolf - then we have one wolf, a tanner and a minion and one of the seers and two villagers are lying.

The last card is a tanner or minion - We have two wolves and one of the other, same as above.

The last card is a villager - Then three villagers and one seer is lying.


Bler, have you confirmed who you robbed? It would be nice to know who to eliminate from the villager pool.

The only setting I see where hitting one of the villagers isn't the best option is if zeo is lone wolf... and unfortunately I'm finding that quite likely.

Hunter seems to be trying to draw suspicion... whether it's because he is looking to be lynched as the Hunter or because he's really the tanner I'm not sure... but I don't really have him down as a wolf.

Not really sure on drealmer... he comes across a little scummy but seems to agree with how I'm seeing the lay of the game so he's maybe just pushing because he feels he knows what's going on.
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zeogold: Not even one of you mooks has so much as donated into the tip jar, much less bought one of my albums.
Ha, serves you right for killing my mount :)
Just spotted something:

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zeogold: He lets you pick. I chose the left two. Although honestly, I'm not entirely sure why I get the option . I suspect that with only one seer in the game, it wouldn't matter which ones I see. That would only matter if the drunk were in play, since he could tell you which of the cards he picked and you could tell him what he is. The lone wolf is obviously not going to come out and tell anybody what he picked, or even that he picked anything, seeing as he has to try to escape the game alive.
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cristigale: To answer gog's question, dedo had me choose between cards 1-3. I chose cards 2 and 3. Card 2 was the mason and card 3 was in fact a villager.
zeo says he chose the left two cards and one of those was the villager. cristi says card 3 is the villager.

Assuming card 3 would be the one on the right then it doesn't look like zeo had any geniune peek. Which kind of rules him out as the lone wolf (ditto for cristi as well really).

So if neither of them are lone wolves then there must be a wolf in the villagers and it's not worth the risk lynching either seer.
Merry Christmas, mafiosos!
Merry christmas!

I just read through once. Want to urge people to not go along with the lone-wolf scenario too easily. From what I remember (fodder for a reread), that entire narrative was pushed by Zeo, and I can see it making wifom-sense from either werewolf or minion perspective, but also being complete misdirection from either. (If he's playing that way as Tanner, then wow.)

@blotunga: How much experience do you have with playing mafia?

I intend to do a more thorough read and respond to specific things later today, but the time between preparation for festivities, and being social, might be tight, so could become tomorrow.