Bought game.

First lock pick attempt 74% failes. First disarmt trap attempt 91% ends deadly.
I thought I'm unlucky, but this is not chance, oh no, not that much.

74% Chance rolls on skills: Fail, Fail, Fail, Success is normal. Critical failures, even those 1% occured during the first hours of game, some on FIRST use of this skill ever.

What the fuck is going up with the game? This can't be bad luck any more. The probability for such a repition is about 0,00000000000001% ....

This really need a fix!

First hack attempt on an electrical safe: fail fail, fail, critical fail. WTF? 74% success, 5% crit.

Next: 91% chance distrap: directly critical failure... This is no bad luck anymore... This games roll system is broken to the bone.

Maybe is something broken in your installation, by example a seed generator.
Because I just played the game again last month and the random factors were O.K. had even luck critical success when probability was 23%

How can a seed generator be broken? Its part of the game implementation compiled to binary. It can not break isolated and perfectly. Its even less possible than the chain of failures and crits I have.

Looks like you don’t really understand what randomness can really do ;)
You should try pen & paper games, dices can’t cheat but I’ve seen quite often situations far more improbable than the one you experienced.

It can be very frustrating though, and leads to save scumming, as people call it. Maybe it would be better with hard limit, like for the conversation skills. Either you unlock the safe, or you don't, period.

Personally I thought all this stuff took way too much time, and the payback was often ludicrously bad, so eventually I didn't bother with safes and and this mumbo jumbo. Just move on. It's quicker and you hardly lose much anyway. Soon enough you'll be swimming in money, and you won't exactly run out of bullets either.

Not necessary (but could be very strange), and again, in my last game with the current version, the random values are good, I had critical failure at 93% rate of success and critical success at 23% or less (after many reloads), some times in line (making me thinking that the seed remain static) but in overall everything is ok. .

Anyway, I remember that the alarm skill had a bug before one patch, where the random didn't happen (or something like that). That is why, I'm guessing with your installs could be something wrong.

P.d. Nothing like 3 rows of critical failure when you are trying to escape a dragon's cave.

I don't need to understand what randomness can do, I just need to understand probability calculation. Its simple math. I even gave a note it is possible, that it is just bad luck, but the chance for what have happend is thausand of times lower than the chance that a fish mutates in a way it is capable to learn a language and speak, still being not changed physically that much that it can not be called a fish anymore.

ANd the funny thing is, it keep going that way, getting even less and less probable.

Just an Example: fail 3 times in a row, having a 76% success chance is 1,7576% ... Possible..
I failed 3 times in a row uncritically and then 1 time critical. So actually its 4 times failing.
Just to fail 4 times is a chance of 0,456976%. And this is only one case. The chance that similar shit happens 20, 30 times goes to what I'v described above. Just to note, the calculation beweet different cases would be bit different, because different amount of tries etc, I know. But beleave me, the chance is a joke.

Now the chance to fail critically on 1 try, with 76% success chance and 5% crit . fail chance: 1,3%

Chance to crit fail with 91% success and 1% crit fail chance: 0,09%.
I got it in the very first try to distrap, very first game.

And I got over and over again afterward. The chance for that much repitition of very low chance rolls is even more lower. If you know probability calculation you know what I'm talking about.

So keep your "you don't know what randomness can do" for your self and learn some basic science.

If there is a chance of 0,000000000000000000000001% that it was just bad luck, that means that the other 99,9999999999999999999999999% are, that something in the roll system is broken.

What do you do? you pick the 0,00.....% and say, that is what happend, because it CAN happen. Rational is something else.

Is the character stupid? I've found (hey, maybe it's my imagination) that if you skimp too much on INT., it affects things like that. It could also be your luck, if you have bad luck, you have bad luck. I've also found (not my imagination) that having high LUCK really helps a lot in so many instances. I crit. success HARD interactions all the time with my high luck guy.

I have noticed the the luck stat too, the number of slots in that status has a directly impact on the percentage for the any skill made by the user (By example, an PC with 4 in luck, will got 14% chances instead of 10%).

p.d. Schotmo is a great locksmith and safecrakcing due his high luck

As a table top wargamer who rolls several thousand six-sided dice every year... I really don't see the point of this thread. Every single roll is isolated, it really does not matter what the result of a long sequence of rolls are. Every new roll is independent of the ones that came before it.

You say you understand probability but every single thing you have said so far in the thread implies the opposite. You should understand that it doesn't matter which roll it is, it is just as likely that the very first roll is a critical failure as the 50th roll or any single roll. The fact that the chance of exceptional repetition is low does not matter mathematically, because those poor odds of rolling any specific sequence only matters if we specifically hope to recreate it.

If you decided you wanted exactly three failures and one success, and precisely NO other sequence, then yes the odds of that happening are ridiculously low. While playing games however we experience "luck" after the fact, the exact sequence we get is as likely/unlikely as any other possible sequence. I believe most random number generators do not use the result of the previous roll to randomise the next, so it is possible to roll the exact same result any number of times. Make that a "74% chance of success" and there are 26 results that could screw you over any number of times.

To make matters worse, unless I'm completely mistaken, critical failures and critical successes are parallel rolls. You may have succeeded on the 74% roll but that separate 1% critical failure roll takes precedence. A failure and a critical failure are completely independent of each other so a sequence that is interrupted by a critical failure means, unless you can look under the hood and see all the generated numbers, the sequence is useless for analysis.

Yeah, I see all these power-gamers complaining about how luck is a "dump stat", but I find it to be one of the most useful and interesting stats. I wonder if it is group cumulative too. Every single one of my characters has at least 5 luck, most of them 6 or 7, a couple 8 and 9. I'm constantly getting lucky misses, lucky evades, lucky crits, extra APs, and other luck-related boones. I also wonder if it affects enemy gun-jams or enemies in other ways.

74% is pretty low for something you don't want to fail. If you're not willing to take the risk, don't try to do it until you have 100%.Thing is, you can get better with levelling and so, you won't fail anymore. No, it's not ;) it's much bigger than you think. With only 74% success rate, you have good chances to fail the first attempt. Which means the combination of the 2 fails isn't that hard to get.