This is annoying me, I am on perhaps my 6th playthrough of this game now. The first couple of times I played the phantom of eldberg quest was always there even when I didn't recall even taking it from the notice board, ever since then I can't trigger it,. What stops it from triggering, is there another quest that once completed kills it? do you have to do something first? Every time I fast travel to the island there isn't a trace of fog.

On my current plythrough, the only things I have done is Skellige so far are the nithing, one of the horse races, following the thread and witnessed the funeral. I want to do the black pearl before it greys out and I lose experience but I'm worried about destroying the quest if I go there.

You need to complete the King Bran funeral wake first, because it's a Clan Drummond related quest. You can even get this quest from Mad Man Lugos if you fist fight him. Also, you can do the Black Pearl without ever going to Arinbjorn, and if the quest hasn't been triggered the Penitent won't be there.

ok managed to get it from lugos.

Is there a chain of events that can prevent its completion? like if you follow through the naming of a new king or something?

No. The new ruler has nothing (directly) to do with the quest. It still goes ahead even if you follow the line where you kill Lugos.

Just adding to Hickory's post - I would recommend doing "phantom of eldberg" fairly early on, since it triggers a fun little sidequest that you will not be able to obtain if you wait too long (if you delay its completion until after the "coronation feast" you won't get this quest anymore).

Spoiler:




I'm referring to the "Cave of Dreams".