I have examined the economics of the game to determine what the optimal strategy is to win on "impossible" with all of the hardest difficulty settings (weak county, advanced farming, armies eat, no castle, 100 crowns money, no army, no weapons.) Having done that, I now find it easy to win on this level. Since I've never seen the economics explained in full detail, I am posting what I have learned here.

Here are some of the topics I intend to cover:
* Basics
* Weather effects
* Events
* Dairy guide
* Grain guide (fertility explained)
* Grain vs. dairy
* Weapons cost

Basics:
To win you need to grow your population and economy as quickly as possible so that you can build an army before another faction can invade. Maximizing economic output will give you an edge. This is best accomplished by converting to a primarily grain based economy, because it is the most labor efficient and productive.

On the hardest level you will begin with 45 cattle, four reclaimed fields of average fertility, 100 crowns, 10 sacks of grain, 50 of each resource (wood, stone, iron), and 165 peasants of average health with 47 happiness. (Rarely the cattle number will differ slightly based on a turn zero weather effect.) Other factions begin with more population, perhaps 250 total based on the "greatest noble" displays.

Let's look at the value of each of these assets based on the crowns received selling resources to a merchant. To do this we will define the base unit of peasant labor as 1 crown per season per peasant. This is how much a peasant can produce each season of wood, iron, or stone in a 100% efficient industry, based on the sales price to the merchant. So 1 labor unit per season = 1 crown per season. The 165 peasants have a nominal economic output of 165 crowns/season.

45 cattle are worth 12 crowns each, 540 crowns total. The four fields would each require 800 units of labor to reclaim, so their total value is 4 x 800 = 3,200 even though they can't be sold. 10 sacks of grain are worth 20 crowns; 50 wood is worth 50 crowns; 50 iron is 50 crowns; and 50 stone is worth 100 crowns. Add your initial 100 crowns and you have assets equivalent to 4060 crowns, primarily in the form of reclaimed fields. It would take a long time for 165 peasants to generate this much value.

The following are not needed immediately, but they will be important later.
Tax formula: Use the following to determine tax revenue available (round down to the nearest crown.)
Tax revenue = population x 3.2 x tax rate x castle multiplier / 100%

Castle multipliers:
No castle.............1.0
Palisade..............1.5
Motte & bailey.....1.75
Norman keep......2.0
Stone castle........2.25
Royal castle........2.5

Stable happiness tax rates:
Average health......6%
Good health...........7%
Perfect health........8%

Per the formula a county of 165 peasants and no castle taxed at 7% would generate revenues of:
Revenue = 165 x 3.2 x 7 x 1.0 / 100 = 36.96 crowns, which is rounded down to 36 crowns.
With a motte & bailey it would be 64 crowns.

Army wages:
Conscripts..........0.25 crown/season per soldier
Mercenaries.......0.5 crown/season per soldier

Weather effects

Mark Twain quipped that “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” Weather events make advanced farming more challenging and result in an outsized impact on the county economy.

Weather effects occur in the transition between seasons on a county basis. Weather can increase or decrease productivity of all fields in a county or even result in the loss of a field. It can also increase the number of cattle born from what was projected at the end of the previous turn or result in more cattle deaths. Weather events can occur in each season of the year and compound the impact on agriculture.

Losing a field is the greatest overall economic concern early in a game and one reason that field reclamation should start early. Being left with only three fields severely restricts the ability to raise crops or cattle and makes it nearly impossible to increase fertility while feeding the population. (I've actually had a game that started with only three fields because the "Turn 0" weather before start of the 1st turn was "flooding" that cost a field and 10% of the cattle.) Each field is worth 800 crowns of labor--4 seasons of 200 peasants each.

Cloudy weather is the norm and has no impact. Cattle herd size will be as projected the prior turn unless some other random event is announced. Grain production will only be impacted by fertility effects and labor. (Note that the planting season estimate does not include fertility effect and will be 120 sacks per 10 sown, then update in spring, and again in summer for fertility even if the fertility is unchanged.)

Frost or storms in the winter to spring transition will reduce the number of sacks sown by 50%. The only good news is that the sacks not sown are retained rather than lost, and the subsequent labor required in spring and summer will be half of normal.

Storms in any season result in the loss of 50% of the crop and 1 extra cattle death for every 20 in the herd.

Flooding (fall to winter transition) also reduces production by 75% in addition to the loss of a field. It results in 1 extra cattle death per 20 in the herd. Beginning reclamation of the lost field will not be allowed until the subsequent turn.
(I incorrectly stated that flooding only caused 50% production loss.)

Sunny weather is good for crops, and increases production by 50%. It also will result in 1 extra calf born for every 20 cattle in the herd. While sunny weather is good, too much often results in a drought. Special bonus for sunny weather in autumn: I've noticed that rarely there is sunny weather during the harvest season, and that this results in at least a 100% increase in yield, perhaps more. The great thing about this is that it doesn't require any extra labor for the extra harvest since the workers have already been allocated, the farmers already assigned will bring it in. I've seen over 2,300 extra sacks of grain harvested this way in a single county.

Drought cuts grain production by 50% and costs a field. Beginning reclamation of the field will not be allowed until the subsequent turn. Normally the drought effect on cattle is small, perhaps 1 in 20 die. However, if a grazing field is lost the total will be much higher--I've seen 1 in 10 lost when I had 3 fields with cattle and one of the fields was lost.

It is not unusual to have two weather events compounding in a year. This can massively increase or decrease harvests even if no grain fields are lost. Starting with frost then having a later season with rain will result in 1/4 harvest (0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25.) Starting with rain or frost then having sunny weather will recover some of the loss and achieve 3/4 normal harvest (0.5 x 1.5 = 0.75). Losing a field will reduce it even more. Having two seasons of sunny weather can boost yield by 125% (1.5 x 1.5 = 2.25.)

Non-weather events

There are a number of events that are not specifically weather, and some have a substantial impact on the economy. I'll try to list the impacts, but I have not documented many of them, so I'll need to update as more information is available. I am going from memory so some of the descriptions may be incorrect. I've probably omitted several others.

"The Black Death" is the most feared message in the game. It can strike any time and kills 20% to a third of the population immediately (the message will say a much smaller number, but the report shows far more deaths than in a normal turn--probably due to the "health" being dropped to sick.) Health drops to "sick" and happiness plummets. To restore health and stabilize the population, double or preferably triple rations should be administered immediately. Unfortunately, providing extra rations is not always possible.

“Pests” strip one field clean and make it barren. The only good news is that the impact is immediate and reclamation of the field can begin the same season--unlike drought and flooding which do not allow any work on the field for a season. When I've seen it the effect has only been in grain fields and specifically states that a field of grain has been lost.

“Mother Nature” informs that natural processes have spontaneously improved the land, resulting in one barren field becoming fallow. This is rare, although I have had it happen twice in the same county during a game.

“Vermin” can reduce the stocks of grain in a county (but only that county.) Last time I saw this it took 20% of the grain.

“Grain found” occurs when a “village reeve” (magistrate) locates excess sacks of grain. The effect is only in one county. This is not a fixed amount. In a county in which I consumed every sack of grain that turn, I got a message that "0" extra sacks of grain had been found. I've also seen it be about 20% of the grain stock that would have been left at the end of the turn.

"Stop thief" results in loss of all tax revenue from a county for a turn. I've had this happen three out of four turns in Sicily when I had a massive population and healthy tax rate. I believe that it happens in the highest revenue county the player has when it occurs.

"Fraud" is similar to "stop thief" except that it is embezzlers looting your treasury. While it says much of your gold has been lost, this does not appear to be the case. Either it caps out at a few hundred crowns or it removes only the revenues from a single county for a turn. It seems to be tied to one county since the message appears when scrolling through them.

"Treasure" message informs that miners have discovered buried valuables. I do not know the amount, might be variable.

"Donation" informs that a local tradesman seeking favor has made a contribution to your cause. I do not know the amount, might be variable.

"Hags curse" on dairy cattle curdles milk and sickens some of the county population producing some excess deaths and a drop in health. I don't know if it is possible to have the event in a grain-only county.

"Wolves" can decimate your cattle. This appears to be a fixed ratio of 4 out of every 10 cows because the last four+ times I've seen it I lost that many.

"No bull" prevents the birth of calves. The impact is usually minor unless one is trying to grow a herd rapidly in "low" or "average" crowding. If herd size is stabilized and not large it will likely only be one or two animals.

"Cow bonanza" is the result of many extra calves being born. Usually not very useful unless one is trying to build a herd rapidly, or if there is a merchant cart in the county that you can sell the excess cattle to. Otherwise fields end up overcrowded and require excessive labor to maintain--or shrink despite maximizing the number of dairy maids.

"Mad cows" is a disease in the cattle that results in the death of 20% of the herd in a county. Late in a recent game where I had a handful of counties this happened two turns in a row in the only county that had grazing and no grain production. The herd only had average crowding but I was in "grow the herd mode" and the herd was the largest I had.

"Bad stock" results in many new calves being put down.

"No songs" happens when the local bard in a county loses his voice and happiness declines for a turn. It appears to have reduced happiness by 4 or 5 points.

"Wedding fever" results in a baby boom (extra births) in the county. Two thirds more babies are born than in a normal year--40% of the total births that year.

"Witch exposed" increases happiness when a witch is executed. (Yep, morbid stuff.)

"Holy relic" found increases happiness. I am not certain of the amount but suspect it is 5 points.

"Termites" can destroy a portion of your stockpile of wood. This makes wood less desirable to store for later sale than stone or iron, which are not subject to such loss. I find the termite issue usually arises when I have been building the wood pile rapidly for a few turns to either construct a wooden castle and/or archers in large numbers, but I don't know if there is a trigger.

"Stone found" happens when a patrol locates the remains of a fort. I do not know if there is a trigger for this (such as exploration by an army.) I believe it adds 100 stone, equivalent to 200 crowns. I don't know that I've ever found it particularly useful as I have already bought stone to build a palisade and motte & bailey in my starting county before it ever occurs. I think this is a once/game event.

"Weapons found" occurs when hunters locate ancient weapons. This is usually (if not always) 25 swords, so the value is 575 crowns.

"Inflated inventory" or some similar message reveals that weapon stocks have been inflated by unscrupulous armourers. I don't know the scale of the impact. This one is rare.

Events without messages

Newly conquered counties will lose 70 points of happiness on "impossible" when they are captured. The value appears to be less when AI factions subdue counties.

Brigands/rioters entering your county will cause a hit to happiness, even if they are killed the same turn they cross the border.

Two events can occur in one county in a season
One weather and one non-weather event can occur in a county in the same season. I recently had a county be struck by wolves and drought on the same turn...while a large enemy army was foraging in it...fortunately I had a lot of grain on hand.

Dairy/cattle guide

A cattle/dairy based economy is simpler to manage, but more limited in productivity and it is more labor intensive than grain. It will often be necessary to supplement rations by purchasing or transferring grain. Purchasing grain is expensive and requires the presence of a merchant cart. On the plus side, dairy doesn't suffer much from weather and it doesn't need high fertility to be productive.

Dairy cattle can be sold for 12 crowns each or purchased for 24. They will each produce dairy for 5 peasants/turn, or can provide beef for 10 peasants for one turn.

The primary limitation for dairy is herd density. As more animals graze each field, birth of calves declines, deaths increase, and the amount of labor required to maintain each animal is greater.

There are four levels of herd density: low (up to and including 10 animals per field), average (up to 20), overcrowded (up to 30), and massively overcrowded above 30. The most labor efficient level is “low” which requires about 2 dairy maids per cow to maintain the herd count. On “average” about 2.5 dairy maids/cow are required to keep the herd strength constant, while on “crowded” about 3 dairy maids/cow are needed. On “massively overcrowded” the herd will shrink since deaths will exceed births even with the full apportionment of dairy maids.

The most efficient use of dairy is at the lowest herd density (up to 10 animals/field) where approximately 2 dairy maids are needed per animal to maintain the herd while producing rations for 5 peasants per cow. Unfortunately, this requires a lot of fields to feed normal population levels. Essentially each field can only feed about 50 peasants at this level. However, 60% of the population will be available to work in other industries or field reclamation.

As population grows, the herd will need to grow and average herd density will be needed to feed the population, maxing at about 20 cows/field. Each cow will require around 2.5 dairy maids to sustain the herd at 20/field. This will support 100 peasants/field on dairy, for the labor of about 50 dairy maids/field. This means that about half the population can be working in other industries.

The last sustainable level is overcrowded where up to 30 cows/field can support 150 peasants/field. This will require about 3 dairy maids/cow, or 90/field. Only about 40% of the population will be available for other industries.

Above 30 cows/field cattle death exceeds births and the herd numbers will decline. However, for short periods the fields can be overcrowded to feed extra population. On the first turn with no merchant available a player may choose to crowd all 45 cattle in one field, plant one field, and leave the other two fallow. The herd size will shrink each turn until it reaches 30.

Managing the herd
I carefully adjust the number of dairy maids to find the "sweet spots" in herd size while still feeding the population. This is most noticeable around the 10/20/30 cattle per field break points. I will sometimes sell, transfer, or consume a few cattle to free up labor for other things. Having 11, 21, or 31 cows/field is an inefficient use of labor.

Special consideration: Cattle do not benefit or suffer from field fertility that otherwise requires some fields be kept fallow. Therefore all of the fields can be used for grazing without hurting dairy production. However, if one or more fields is/are kept fallow, then fertility will be increased. This does not require 1/3, a single field will do even if you have 3 or more fields grazing cattle. Once fertility reaches “excellent” the extra field(s) can be switched to grazing without fertility declining. Also, after raising fertility this way, some fields can be switched to grain (but now with 1/3 of total also kept fallow) at high or maximum fertility.

Events that impact dairy:
Weather other than "cloudy" will impact calf births/cattle deaths. Storms, frost, and drought will result in one extra cow dying per 20 in the herd. (45 cattle will suffer two extra deaths.) Flooding costs 1/10th of the herd. Sunny weather will result in one extra calf being born per 20 cattle.

"Hags curse" on dairy cattle curdles milk and sickens some of the county population causing a drop in health. I don't know if it is possible to have the event in a grain-only county.

"Wolves" can decimate your cattle. The last two times I've seen it 4/10 of the cattle died.

"No bull" prevents the birth of calves. The impact is usually minor unless one is trying to grow a herd rapidly in "low" or "average" crowding.

"Cow bonanza" is the result of many extra calves being born. This has added an extra birth for every 10 cows from what I've seen so far.

"Mad cows" is a disease in the cattle that results in many extra cattle deaths--current estimate is 20% of the herd. I've seen it happen repetitively (twice within one or two years) in the same cattle grazing only county, but haven't seen it in any of the neighboring mixed dairy/grain counties.

"Bad stock" results in many new calves being put down. It seems to work out as about 1/10th of the herd, but might be limited to new calves that were scheduled to be born.

Growing grain/fertility explained

The following discussion assumes that the player is using the "advanced farming" option.

Growing grain has the best return per field and per worker employed...once field fertility is raised. Each sack of grain will feed 6 peasants for a season and each sack has a sale value of 2 crowns. While converting to high efficiency farming is a "tough row to hoe" early on in the game, the return is very good once established. I'll provide some numbers to explain why.

Farmers needed throughout year:
Growing grain involves sowing 10 sacks of grain per field in winter. Less can be sown of course, but it will yield less grain in autumn. It requires 24 farmers to sow the grain.

In spring the farming info will reveal if weather prevented some of the grain from being sown. Frost or storms will reduce the amount to 5 sacks sown/field. If the weather is cloudy and the full 10 sacks are put in the ground, then only 12 farmers will be needed to fully tend to each field. If the amount was only 5 sacks, then only 6 farmers/field will be required in spring. (Note: the amount the field will yield will only partially update for fertility by spring, so while the actual amount might be 270 sacks/field, it will indicate 210 or similar. The totals indicated in summer and autumn fully reflect the fertility.)

In summer grain totals will again adjust for any weather effects, but the amount sown will not change. If 10 sacks/field were effectively sown in winter, then 18 farmers/field will be required in summer. If only 5 were sown then 9 farmers/field will be needed.

In autumn much more farm labor will be needed to bring in all of the harvest. The ratio is 1 farmer to 1.5 sacks of grain for autumn. For the harvest I usually suspend field reclamation and castle building and then as needed minimize other industries in order to have enough labor. If I have a few cattle and a particularly large harvest, I often allow the herd to decline some as well.

Fertility:
Fertility is the most important controllable feature of grain production. Whether a mix of cattle and grain are used, or grain-only, at least 1/3 of the fields must be kept fallow or field fertility will begin to suffer. The higher the percentage of fallow fields the more quickly that fertility will improve until it reaches maximum. (When cattle grazing-only this is not required as it does not impact the herd. However, leaving a single field fallow will improve fertility regardless of the number of grazing fields.) Let's dispel one mistaken assumption in some otherwise very good FAQ's: Crop rotation is unnecessary. You don't have to rotate each field (a micromanagement nightmare.) Instead, you only need to keep the minimum number of fields fallow.

There are seven classifications of fertility: Infertile, very poor, poor, average, good, very high, and excellent. In addition there are barren fields and those undergoing reclamation. All of the fields in the county begin at average fertility and all change together, rather than individually.

Fertility appears to be on a continuous scale. A field will start with 120 sacks production on average and, in the absence of weather events, will move up or down somewhat before the next level is achieved. Depending on the ratio of fields that are fallow, it will take varying amounts of time to move up or down. This means that if sufficient fields are fallow, production of a field can rise during the year, even though the next level is not yet achieved.

At the maximum level of “excellent” fertility, 270 sacks of grain are produced. Even higher levels can result from weather events that increase fertility 50% in a season.

The ranges of the other levels are more difficult to determine since fertility is a moving target during the year. Through testing I've observed that “good” fertility’s lower range is 140, and “very high” starts at 175. Moving down the scale “poor” fertility is around 100, “very poor” kicks in at around 75-80, and “infertile” somewhere around 40-50.

Fertility in mixed field configurations
It is known that cattle fields don't follow the 1/3 fallow rule in cattle-only mode. However, I have now confirmed that in mixed grain/cattle/fallow it is possible to increase fertility slowly with 1 field fallow, 1 grain, 2 cattle. Reaching "good" took until the 7th turn, vs. the 4th turn with half grain, half fallow. Interestingly, half fallow with 1/4 grain and 1/4 cattle takes only 3 turns to increase fertility to the same level. One caveat is that there is always some field reclamation occurring and I do not know if any credit is given for partially reclaimed fields.

Grain production efficiency vs. fertility
For a field with starting average fertility the labor requirement is 24 + 12 + 18 + 120/1.5 = 134 labor units to produce 120 – 10 sown = 110 net sacks of grain. This is enough grain to feed 110 x 6 / 4 = 165 peasants for a year while using only 134 / 4 = 33.5 peasants' worth of annual labor. However, this does require half a field be kept fallow for every one in grain production, so each field can effectively feed only 165/1.5 = 110 peasants. This is nearly the same field effectiveness as dairy production with average herd crowding, but it is less than what an overcrowded field can produce. The effectiveness of labor is another matter. Even with average herd crowding the ratio of people fed to people working in farm or dairy is better in farming: 165/33.5 = 4.92 vs. 100/50 = 2.

The big advantage of grain is when fertility is maximized at 270 sacks/field. The annual farm labor requirement would be 24 + 12 + 18 + 270/1.5 = 234 labor units to produce 270 - 10 sown = 260 sacks of grain. This will feed 260 x 6 / 4 = 390 peasants for a year while using only 234 / 4 = 58.5 peasants' worth of annual labor. Accounting for fallow fields 390 / 1.5 = 260 peasants can be fed per field. An overcrowded grazing field will top out feeding around 150 and require around 90 dairy maids. Therefore the ratio of fed/workers for grain vs. dairy is 390 / 58.5 farmers = 6.67 vs. 150 fed / 90 = 1.67.

Grain vs. Dairy

To understand why grain production is the key to winning with “advanced farming” on, Simply watch the Countess. She begins with grain and soon is supporting huge populations, large armies, and rapid expansion. The Bishop uses a mix of grain and dairy for similar rapid expansion. The Baron and Knight rely on dairy.

What is the big difference between grain and dairy? The largest difference is that on average with maximum fertility grain can support many more peasants per field with food to spare. But there are other advantages as well:
• Compared to dairy, grain requires very little labor until harvest. For 3 seasons much of the population is free to reclaim fields, mine, cut wood, quarry, build weapons or construct castles.
• People fed per field (even including fallow fields) is far greater with grain on the higher fertility levels.
• Labor per cow increases as field crowding rises. Even with additional labor the maximum stable herd size is approximately 30-31 cows per field (on “impossible.”) Above that the herd will shrink most seasons, even with maximum labor.
• Grain is stockpiled and fed as needed while excess dairy is lost, and excess cattle die off. On average the slight surplus of cattle needed results in wasted labor.
• It is much easier to move grain around to needy counties than cattle. Transferred cattle require fields and labor at the destination, grain does not. Cattle being transferred don’t produce any dairy during the move.
• It is far easier to provide double or triple rations of grain. Double is rarely possible with dairy/meat only. Double and triple are typically achieved by purchasing or transporting grain.
• Growing the herd requires a great deal of excess dairy labor, further reducing the labor pool for industry.

There are disadvantages to grain:
• Production of grain is highly variable depending on weather and fertility. Floods, droughts, and pests destroy fields. Storms and heat waves halve the yield. This makes it necessary to build a surplus for bad years.
• Keeping at least 1/3 of fields fallow reduces the productivity of available fields—although the increased fertility usually more than compensates in the long haul.
• Grain requires micro management of labor.
• Bumper crops often require more farmers for the harvest than are available even with minimal industry. In average or good years field reclamation will have to be halted during autumn for the harvest.
• Pillaging armies can target grain fields that, unlike cattle, can’t be moved until after harvest.
• When grain production is short and no cattle or merchants are available, the county will have to subsist on reduced or no rations, while a slight shortage in dairy only/mixed counties can be offset by eating some of the stock. Failure to plan ahead can result in no rations for a season or two, while dairy can usually provide half rations at worst (except when large foraging armies are present.)
• If a province is prone to a storm or more per year, it is almost impossible to subsist with grain. (This has happened to me on the Africa map as Abyssinia.)

Relative economic output, grain vs. dairy
Let’s examine the case of a county with 750 people and maximum fertility in grain-only and dairy-only service. This population size is chosen as it is nearly the "lowest common denominator" for dairy vs. grain productivity feeding a given populace efficiently. For materials (stone, iron, wood) one season of serf labor produces 1 crown of material at sale-to-merchant pricing. We will calculate the net labor output after the peasants are fed.

To feed this county with dairy, 5 fields of 30 cattle each will be needed, requiring 450 dairy maids (90/field) each season. This leaves 300 peasants to produce roughly 300 crowns/season, or 1200 crowns/yr.

500 sacks of grain/yr are required to feed the 750 peasants. With maximum fertility netting 260 sacks/field this requires only two fields of grain (and one fallow), and produces an excess of 20 sacks of grain worth 40 crowns. The two fields require 2 * 234 = 468 labor units for the year, while the 750 peasants can produce 3,000 over the year before subtracting the farm labor. Therefore the net is 3,000 + 40 – 468 = 2,572 crowns/yr.

In this case the same population on grain-only will have over twice as much net economic output as it would with dairy-only.

Weapon Economics
There are three basic prices for weapons: production cost, sales price, and purchased weapon price. The one that requires some calculation is the production cost because it is based on the labor cost of raw materials, then the labor cost to produce a weapon. Each weapon requires 4 units of seasonal blacksmith labor at 100% efficiency. Iron and wood require 1 serf/season to produce 1 crown worth of material at "sell to the merchant" pricing.

Overall weapon production cost/sale price/purchase price

.................Iron.... Wood..... Smiths..... Prod cost*......... Sale price........ Purchase price
Mace.......... 4 ........4 .............4.............. 12..................... 10......................... 20
Pike............ 3 ........6 .............4.............. 13..................... 13......................... 26
Bow............ 0....... 13 ............4...............17..................... 16......................... 32
Sword.........10....... 3............. 4.............. 17..................... 23......................... 46
Crossbow...10....... 6............. 4.............. 20..................... 24......................... 48
Knight.........18....... 4............. 4.............. 26..................... 44......................... 88

*Note that production cost is higher if you have to purchase any of the raw materials because iron and metal cost 2 crowns each from the merchant. This is important for counties that lack either or both resources. Most commonly this would be a county lacking iron, so buying iron to make pikes might be needed for the screen in front of archers for the first army. The effective pike cost would then be 16 crowns each.

Difference between purchase price vs. total labor production cost:
................crowns............. %
Mace.......... +8 ..............+67
Pike............+13........... +100
Bow............+15............. +88
Sword.........+29 ...........+171
Crossbow...+28 ...........+140
Knight.........+62........... +239

This is why if you need to buy some additional weapons to fill out an army, macemen make the most sense, followed by pikes and then bows. Purchasing other weapon types is extremely wasteful. (It still might make tactical sense in a very limited amount to "top off" a unit with a number of men needed to make the unit size divisible by 8, 16, or 32 typically used on the battle map. It might also prove useful to get a few crossbowmen for taking out pikes, oil pots, etc. in specific situations.)

Finally, comparing the sell-to-merchant price vs. the labor cost yields the following difference:
................crowns .........% profit
Mace.......... -2 .................-17
Pike............ 0 .....................0
Bow............ -1 ...................-6
Sword......... +6 ...............+35
Crossbow... +4 ...............+20
Knight.........+18 ..............+69

Notice that producing armour for knights then selling it results in a profit equivalent to 18 crowns (44 crowns sale vs. 26 crowns worth of labor invested.) Of course, the profit is diminished or lost when a purchase is then made from a merchant. However, if you have a county with excess blacksmith labor available and excess iron, this is a way to increase your profit over selling raw materials.

Mercenaries
A fair question to ask is whether or not mercenaries are an efficient use of your treasury. The answer is complicated. If you don't have the weapons on hand, or can't buy them, or can't produce them in time, or can't afford the population/happiness hit but need the unit urgently then buying them is a necessity. In other cases they might be a bargain compared to producing the weapons yourself (not to mention a time and population saver.) But you also must remember the wages are twice as high as for the same number of conscripts.

Let's look at the cost of buying mercs vs. their produced weapon cost and purchased weapon cost.
.........................................# .......Cost....... Weapon prod. cost..... Weapon purchase cost
Saxon Macemen............150..... 1,900........... 1,800............................. 3,000
Burgundy Macemen.......250..... 3,100........... 3,000............................. 5,000
Scottish Pikemen.......... 100...... 1,800.......... 1,300............................. 2,600
Irish Pikemen................ 200...... 3,500.......... 2,600............................. 5,200
Moorish Archers........... 150....... 3,000.......... 2,550 ............................ 4,800
Welsh Archers.............. 200....... 4,000.......... 3,400 ............................ 6,400
Swedish Swordsmen... 100........ 2,700.......... 1,700 ............................ 4,600
Danish Swordsmen...... 200....... 5,500 ..........3,400 ............................ 9,200
Flemish Crossbowmen 100........ 3,000 .........2,000 ............................ 4,800
Norman Crossbowmen 200........ 6,000 ........ 4,000 .............................9,600
Spanish Knights............. 25........ 2,700 ........... 650 ............................ 2,200
Angevin Knights............. 50........ 5,500 ........ 1,300 ............................ 4,400

So the best deals compared to producing weapons come from hiring macemen costing only an extra 0.4 to 0.67 crowns/soldier above their weapon production cost. (And since macemen tend to get chewed up rapidly in battle, the extra wages are not a drag for long either.) The next best arrangement is hiring archers which cost 3 crowns/soldier above their weapon production cost. Pikemen come in slightly worse at 4.5 to 5 crowns/soldier excess. Crossbowmen command a premium of +10 crowns/soldier while swordsmen are 10 to 10.5. Knights are crazily overpriced at 82 to 84 crowns/soldier excess!

If on the other hand one is comparing hiring vs. buying weapons from a merchant, all are cheaper than that except for the knights.

Estimate population of other counties
There are some graphical indications of county population that can be used to advantage when planning attacks on other counties. Look at both the town and the number of hamlets/small villages to determine the approximate size of the population. The graphics change in increments of 200 from 600 to 1600. Below 600 and above 1600 there are no additional graphics clues.

Town graphics:
* Small/mostly empty
* Medium/adds church
* Large/adds windmill

Population......... Town graphic .....Hamlets
Below 600.......... Small town ........... 0
600 - 799 .......... Small town ............ 1
800 - 999 .......... Medium town ........ 1
1000 - 1199 ...... Medium town ........ 2
1200 - 1399 ...... Large town ........... 2
1400 - 1599 ...... Large town ........... 3
1600 and up ..... Large town ........... 4


Another thing that is somewhat useful is to look at the industry animations. If the AI has a lot of workers in a given industry then the graphic animation will cycle rapidly. If it has none then the graphic will be stationary.

Three starting strategies examined

Grain only
Based on the discussion of the economics in preceding posts, switching immediately to a grain based economy appears to be a no-brainer. However, it is not. First, in roughly half of the games there will not be a merchant cart available immediately to sell your cattle to and buy grain. Therefore, in those situations you will not only have cattle, but also be unable to plant more than one field fully at the start.

Second, going to grain only is a very aggressive strategy that frequently results in lack of rations due to weather events. If the weather and harvests are good the first few years then you will be way ahead, but if they are bad rations will have to be cut. You start with average fertility and to increase fertility you must keep two fields fallow if two are planted on the first turn. In most games on impossible I lose a field some time in the first two years. If this is a fallow field it retards fertility improvement. If this happens to be a planted field, things are much worse because half of the potential crop is immediately lost, not to mention the massive seasonal hit to the remaining field.

For the first two years you will be trying to build happiness and population and will not have any real purchasing power for supplemental grain if the harvest is bad.

Cattle only
Starting with cattle only might appear attractive as weather is not much of a concern and fertility can be increased (by leaving a field fallow) before switching to grain. However, it remains labor intensive and after about two years it will become difficult to feed the population and do any meaningful field reclamation, or collect enough wood for a palisade.

I've tried a few scenarios where I start with cattle for a few years and buy grain as needed/when available. Sometimes I can get a palisade built, get a field reclaimed, have sufficient population, and begin some grain harvesting. But this only really works if the AI does not advance in my direction and the weather is good. If the AI is aggressive and weather is poor I can end up with an enemy army on my soil before a palisade is constructed to deter them from such a foray. Even if the AI doesn't attack and I get fortresses built, I sometimes lose fields as rapidly as I can reclaim them since I can't spare much labor for reclamation. (Last time I tried to stay all cattle, built an M&B and small field army, took another county...and was still undone by weather knocking out 3 fields over the years this took.)

One of the biggest problems with dairy on "impossible" is that it takes a lot of extra dairy maids to grow the herd. And the herd will need to grow as the population expands during the 2nd year and so on. Once you reach "overcrowded" (30 animals/field) it takes roughly 10 extra dairy maids to gain one cow--in addition to the 3 dairy maids/cow to maintain the rest of the herd. On average crowding it is closer to 5 extra to gain the cow with 2.5 maids/cow to maintain the rest of the herd.

So my conclusion is that if one starts with cattle only, the plan should be to begin growing grain in the following year to supplement.

Mixed dairy/grain -- Goldilocks scenario
The most successful scenario that I've found on "impossible" is to plant grain in one field on the first turn, leave one field fallow, and keep cattle on the other two. This is the most flexible approach and will always allow some sort of ration, even if the harvest fails. It does not require a merchant cart on the first turn. It also saves money compared to purchasing supplemental grain later on. Fertility will slowly improve, even as I'm reclaiming another field. Even if I lose a field I can usually reclaim one soon enough to compensate.

Splitting the initial herd between two fields keeps the herd crowding at "average." This is enough to feed everybody for the first year while maintaining herd size rather than using extra labor to expand it. The extra labor is shuffled into reclamation while industry efficiencies are ramping up. Once I have a 5th field around the start of 3rd year, I can reduce the herd to around 30 or less and put them on one field, then add a second grain field, leaving two fallow.

This strategy can handle some fairly awful starts and dealing with bad weather. (I've used a variant of it when I started the game with a field already lost to flooding, and 4 cattle short as a result as well.) It will allow building a palisade late in the 3rd year/early 4th. I can't recall the last time I actually lost a game with this approach.

Great post, i created a account just to reply.

Been playing this gem of a game on and off since my teenage years, though I've known this game inside out but just started again few weeks ago and learn some more. A amazing gem. This time around finish the siege pack campaign in one sitting. So dam addicting.

I find the most efficient starting strategy to be 1 wheat, 1 cow, 2 fallow. Once cow drop to 41 change to 2 cow for one turn. Also if you start with 43 cattle, it's better to skip planting wheat for the first year and just leave it fallow as the first year is guarantee bad whether already.

Hardest possible challenge i can think of is playing as tribal republics in India map as you start out with no industry whatsoever. Impossible difficulty, no tax, fight all, no castle building or garrison, weak start, 100 gold, no weapon. No glitch abusing or 1 man army.

Only just manage to finish after lots of tries, really though this game can't offer anymore challenge but here it does it again. Truly is a classic, Total wars got nothing on this game.

Great post indeed but I wanted to add one consideration:

I mostly use dairy, i.e., I reclaim all fields, have one fallow, one grain and the rest for cattle. Although it may be less optimal compated to having more grain, it has two huge advantages:
1. Far less micromanagement, which once you have more than three counties really bothers me; and,
2. Cattle serves as a buffer for when you either raise armies (to outside the county or into the castle) or the pest comes around. In both cases you'll have an excess of cattle which you can typically sell very quickly.

Assuming I survive the first few years and manage to get to three counties, my people feed on dairy and the grain that I do harvest is a nice war-buffer.

@ OP...


Ahh the memories. I went back and blew through the campaign again for amusement. I do have one contention over your comments on mercs. Yes they are more expensive and i have no issue with your analysis. However, Merc value is far beyond economic. They are effectively invisible to your economy and allow for a great deal of tactical flexibility. If i get a Saxon band early on, its worth two neutrals for 2k in gold. Not a bad trade off.


@Bear...

India is a tough map. I enjoy doing the Crusades as Jerusalem as well. Not as difficult a start but surrounded is always fun.


@umfriend

There are many ways to win, and you play the way you like. I think the ultimate point is, this used to be an ongoing discussion like Ninjas vs Pirates. But bottom line, under almost no circumstance does cattle pay off over grain. Sheer force of economy allows for larger/better equipped armies much faster.

Regarding the micro management. It should be noted this only impacts you if you are concerned about specific yields. For example, if you need iron over wood in large amounts. Otherwise you can simply setup the percentage of labor in winter and then use the slider throughout the year. it will evenly distribute based on what you set. So really, unless you are literally going pure wood for mounds of archers or some such, no mirco is required.

This is an awesome guide. The author has really done the math and laid it out in an organised and easy to read way. Thank you so very much for all of your hard work RedHarvest1