rojimboo: @ddmuse: Good job going through the article. Hope it proves educational.
Tbh, no, it hasn't been much of an educational experience. The data and inferred causal links aren't solid enough to have much persuasive power, tho there have been a few interesting bits and valid points here and there.
rojimboo: 1. Steam - the author does not state it is DRM free, clearing that contradiction. It is however, by his definition (and most of the world's) not considered intrusive DRM, especially since there seems to a workaround to even access games completely offline (yikes). Also, having internet for someone who bought their game from a digital distributor seems a bit of a moot point.
Steam users (and there a lot of them, yes) accept Steam and regard it as more-or-less non-intrusive. That doesn't say anything of value to the point; it's akin to saying to saying that Christians accept the Bible and proceeding to draw conclusions about the Bible itself from that acceptance. The opinion of Steam users, who are purchasing their games via Steam, isn't the relevant opinion. Rather, it is the opinion of those who regard Steam as intrusive DRM that matters here, for it is that group that might be pirating games requiring Steam based on their evaluation of it. As I'm sure you are well aware, many physical disk retail games now *require* Steam, meaning that the scope of the matter is not limited to digital distribution. You are also no doubt aware that Steam is intrusive in ways other than online activation, and that offline mode requires preknowledge of network outage or unavailability and is repeatedly reported as unreliable by some users.
I'm not interested in detailed debate concerning how intrusive Steam is or is not. You have only to hang out on these forums for a while to see that some users completely reject Steam, or perform a web search and read any number of such discussions. What matters here is that Steam games are rather clearly not valid or useful examples of "DRM-free or DRM-light" games suffering piracy.
rojimboo: 2. Regional piracy rates vs economic loss - Even if you skimmed the article, you must have noticed his considerable critical objections on past attempts on quantifying economic loss due to piracy. In fact, there are whole paragraphs devoted to it. Hence, why you seem to think he even attemps to do this, is beyond me. Once again, he looks at piracy rates, not economic loss, clearly demonstrated in even your quote. The differences between regions is always reflected in the pricing of the game, which is why a game in Thailand costs a fraction of the same game in the US, and the excuse of third-world country citizens not being able to afford a game like Crysis, is refuted by the simple fact that they must have a PC gaming rig capable of playing it in the first place. Like you said, it does not excuse piracy, and in no way affects looking at trends of piracy rates for similar games (as the methodology and basis of comparison remains the same for all his games).
Actually, the author himself makes the point that price has not been historically proportionate to differences in regional economies, and that disparity still exists today. And while he does avoid quantifying economic loss due to piracy, he attempts to present the magnitude of the problem piracy actually poses based on torrent statistics, which is rather meaningless without knowledge of actual economic loss due to piracy.
rojimboo: 3. Console vs PC gaming piracy: You seemed to have not considered the main point of his analysis - even the upper bound of his estimates from multiple sources of the number of PC gamers vs number of console gamers, does not even come close to explaining how there is a 5:1 or 4:1 ratio of games sold on consoles vs the PC, like Witcher 2. Not even close. Thus, there must be another reason. Could it be price (the author goes on to argue, as you are well aware)? Nope, in fact, console games cost 10 dollars more usually on the consoles compared to the PC. Etc etc, he goes on, until he looks at piracy. Eureka.
Again, inferring causal links based on haphazard data and flippantly disregarding other possible factors.
Perhaps you didn't understand (or I did not adequately explain) my objection to his estimate. The "5:1 or 4:1 ratio of games sold on consoles vs the PC" could be easily explained by a substantial difference in the numbers of gamers
actually interested in playing those games on each platform. The author attempts to disregard this as a factor entirely by estimating the number of PC gamers being roughly equal to the number of console gamers based on estimates of the number of graphics cards sold and assuming a roughly equal distribution of preference of games between the two types of platform.
This is an unreliable estimate: The number of graphics cards sold tells us virtually nothing about the PC gamer base for any particular title. It fails to account for users interested primarily in only MMOs (this number could well be huge as his own later appraisals of the popularity of MMOs indicate), users playing primarily only older games (such as those purchased from GOG), users who utilize their PC for multimedia purposes other than gaming, users having consoles in addition to PC and preferring to play certain games on console, bulk purchases by governments and other organizations, etc, etc, etc.
A bit of humor (remembering that CoD 4 is the author's primary example here): Is it that hard to believe that there are a lot more CoD 4 fans among console gamers than PC gamers? ;-)
Edit: Thinking about that joke brought a question to mind: Does the author build his ratio case on just that one example (CoD 4)? That's all I recall atm aside from a developer or publisher quote about Crysis games (surprise: another shooter). A greater number and diversity of case studies (here and in the rest of the piece) would go a long way towards improving the persuasiveness of the article.
rojimboo: 4. Changing business models: Wow (no pun intended). You seem to enjoy cherry-picking and missing the point of his analysis. He is arguing how the business model of PC gaming has changed towards online only. Not that there is a fraction of PC gaming still going the single-player route, but that how much more succesful the online seems to be, especially as the growth in 2009 in the PC gaming industry was due to online-based avenues, only (I'm sure if you read the page, you will find the reference). Not offline, single-player games. That fact right there is quite striking - the online gaming is keeping the PC gaming industry alive (no growth as you may know, is a slow and painful death to most businesses, or an instant one to some).
Again, inferring causal links and flippantly disregarding other possibilities. If you want to demonstrate that single player PC gaming is becoming less and less viable, isolate the figures pertaining to such games and show me that sales are decreasing substantially. Instead, the author says, "Look, this new online gaming thing is popular and growing, and making a shitload of money because it's designed to continually generate revenue each month, thus single player gaming on the PC is dead because of piracy!" Perhaps the single player PC gamer base itself isn't growing much (perhaps because the average casual gamer prefers the preconfigured ease of console gaming). (To be fair, I was getting a bit irritated with the author and sleepy, and approaching the end of a slow work day, so perhaps I'll reread that section when I resume reading the article.)
rojimboo: 5. Cherry-picked reference, that you misrepresent, regarding looking at online activation/verification and its link to piracy. If you had been playing PC games (single-player) you must have noticed a trend like this yourself? Single-player games constantly tying a bunch of functionality server-side, with no apparent reason than to clearly serve as DRM?
For what other reason would single-player games do this?
Having said that - Ghazi seems to imply a little (but not state) that businesses looked to online only business models due to piracy as a driving force. Whilst this maybe true for any game that is single-player mostly, it is of course completely not true for MMOs for instance, where social, multiplayer aspect is inherently the reason why WoW works so well. So I am with you on that, his tone (but not his assertions) overstates the importance of piracy prevention in the success of WoW's business model. However, if you keep reading, his main point is that online verification is implemented in an ever more increasing fashion, even in single-player game, where clearly the only reason to do that would be to serve as DRM. Hence, changing business models due to piracy.
Yes, of course developers and publishers implement online-DRM due in part to a perception of piracy as a major issue (a web search should reveal plenty of discussion pertaining to the cycle of piracy and DRM). That is not what I disputed. The "leap" I referred to was associating success with presence of online-DRM:
"...
the increasing presence of online activation/verification in successful games."
Perhaps he goes on to explain this in further detail (several pages to read yet), but this seems yet another case of "This must cause this, disregard all other factors based on my selected examples and unreliable data."
---
It's my Friday (the beginning of my days off work, during which time I'm almost never on here), and I'm starting vacation anyway (10 days of no work, no Internet, no worries!!! lol), so it'll likely be a while before I get back to this topic (and that's assuming I remember and am in the mood to continue when I get back).