StingingVelvet: So... sort of a 50/50 shot there.
captfitz: realistically i'd say it's more like 90/10. can you show me a precedent for the latter situation (sorry, i'm lazy)
The people who still buy boxed copies, which is still about half of PC game purchasers, have different ideals than people who are already going digital. Those ideals might match up more with Gamersgate than a constant social client like Steam. That is why I think he MIGHT be right.
That said Steam has a PR juggernaut going and that counts for a LOT, plus people tend to enjoy convenience over anything else and Steam is good about making you think it is more convenient. So, like I said, 50/50.
As for examples there are literally thousands of examples of juggernauts weakening over time, do I really need to list any examples? Playstation 2 to Playstation 3 jumps out at me immediately.