Carradice: Any hints on why are they taking so long?
Mount & Blade did the impossible: Horses!. Warband improved on it.
Maybe they want to do the impossible again? Not just a better looking M&B but taking it to another level.
Dray2k: I know, I've been following Taleworlds for a long time, around more than 17 years I think.
The first Mount and Blade took 8 years to develop (Pre Alpha began during the very early 2000s and release was in 2008).
Warband is a engine based update over Mount and Blade to make it futureproof. Development began after 1.011 and took 2 years. There still updating the engine however. Presumably, the person who made the formations mod might also be working with Taleworlds a few years after Warbands initial release.
Viking Conquest isn't wholly related to the core engine and Native game, however the experts who made Brytenwalda are handling the process, optimizing anything that isn't related to the engine itself. Its a "more polished" version over the Mount and Blade native experience. Presumably, they're also workiong with Bannerlords development to some degree. People who digged into the intricacies of the DLC know that VC is more optimized than mods based around Native.
Speculations aside, with these very simple axioms (understanding how Taleworks works) in mind its fairly easy to predict
the release of Bannerlord around mid/late 2021, so in around 2 years! The beta/early access release will be earlier, should it happen.
Its common knowledge that a wholly new developed Taleworlds game should take
at the very least 8 years to make (we're past this time). However, consider that a game as simple as Mount and Blade was made by 2 people. Warbands development had around 6-8 (?) people actively working on it. Bannerlords development directly began after Warbands (2010). Talewords size also changed its size from 6 to 50 people and all of that while considering that Bannerlord is also a vastly more ambigious game than Warband is. Relating how long the previous development time took, believing it takes 10-11 years seems to be the most reasonable assessment considering how the company works from a surface perspective and how previous installments progressed in their development time.
Modders are sort of figuring out how Bannerlord might be in terms of gameplay. If you want to play a Mount and Blade game that kinda shares Bannerlords battle atmosphere, I very strongly recommend
A World of Ice and Fire to you, which basically has very similar field battles as shown with Talewords promo videos and teasers for Bannerlord. It also wars that happen on seas with ships that you can sail (its unsurprising that this mod is also based on Viking Conquest rather than Warbands Native). It might be a good mod to waste a few years on. I'm fairly certain that people will try to crease a "Bannerlord mod" for Warband at some point since the modding tools and understanding for Warband and VC are already very much developed.
Thank you for the comprehensive reply. Some thoughts:
0. Followed Mount & Blade since the beginning. Played it to death, then Warband. The variants as well. Got tired of following Bannerlord development. Thank you for the great update.
1. Seeing the staff rising from 2 to 6-8 to around 50 may arise both expectations and fears. Hopefully they will be able to manage a larger team and the associated problems that come with that. And hopefully, all that people will be doing more than beautifying the game with bells & whistles.
2. Never looked at the entrails of Viking Conquest, although it is nice to have ships in the gameplay. Maybe there might be more surprises in that vein. As you mentioned the formations mod, maybe they will be improving said formations. Making it more interesting/easy to work with larger armies?
3. Viking Conquest was way less player-friendly than the standard Calradia setting. It seems to be trying hard to be realistic. Maybe a tad too much?
4. Will be checking A World of Ice and Fire. Thanks for the heads up.