Goodaltgamer: I read somewhere that GOG has like 2 million customers. NOW if I could only find this link again....And I think they were talking about real customers.
If you do find it, please do post it so we can keep track.
Goodaltgamer: Don't forget, TW3 had to be registered via GOG, even if bought in another shop.
Only exception Steam. But like all boxed versions had to go through GOG, but GOG didn't sell them!!!!
Correct, both authorized and unauthorized are all either GOG or Steam keys, any GOG keys would be GOG customers upon redemption (whether bought or free etc.), but presumably those keys are not counted until they are redeemed.
Goodaltgamer: But back to your figures: that would mean 1.5 millions, which is even less than the 2 millions I mentioned ;) And I expected to see a much higher figure....LOL
For the math:
10 million, 30 % of it, 3 million, , 50% of this is 1,5 million. (10*0,3*0,5=1,5)
EDIT
I did not modify the first part, just to show you my thought process ;)
Yeah, at the present the figures we have to work with are pretty vague or dated at best with reasonable sized margin of error which would get compounded with each additional data point used in estimation thus lowering the accuracy of the resulting estimate, but it would just mean that you end up with a range rather than a specific number, and the width of the range would be a reflection of the quality of data used in estimation.
I went through CDP's quarterly/annual reports and while they contain profitability figures and other really interesting data, none of it could easily translate into numbers that are terribly useful for estimating the size of the GOG customer base as I had hoped. :/
Still, I think it's safe to say they have millions of Witcher 3 customers here on GOG and that they only account for a fraction of the total customer base, and while we can't draw a conclusion - it is reasonable to estimate a similar percentage of ownership of the game compared to Steam if we can get decent numbers on Steam. I found some stuff but it's hard to find updated figures on Steam and on Witcher 3 sales, and the recent GOTY release only further complicates that with little info available. :/