Posted November 06, 2018
flubbucket
"Intoning"
Registered: Dec 2012
From Micronesia
Lifthrasil
Bring the GOG-Downloader back!
Registered: Apr 2011
From Germany
Posted November 06, 2018
That's true. It wouldn't matter for the role PMs. But any other PMs that I chose to send to one player only are for that one player only and are not to be quoted. For example clarifications about role-rules, if not asked and answered here, should not be quoted. Just to be on the safe side.
supplementscene
New User
Registered: Nov 2015
From United Kingdom
Posted November 06, 2018
So could we just ask every player if they are town or not??
I'll start. I'm town. So who's next??
We should be very cautious of voting on the basis of a wagon gaining steam more than ever because of this.
P1na
Wandering fruit
Registered: Apr 2012
From Spain
Posted November 06, 2018
So could we just ask every player if they are town or not??
I'll start. I'm town. So who's next??
We should be very cautious of voting on the basis of a wagon gaining steam more than ever because of this.
flubbucket
"Intoning"
Registered: Dec 2012
From Micronesia
my name is catte
i touch your foods
Registered: Mar 2010
From United Kingdom
Posted November 06, 2018
So... we still seem to be missing some players.
Lifthrasil
Bring the GOG-Downloader back!
Registered: Apr 2011
From Germany
Posted November 06, 2018
Yes. Joe and Ix seem to be missing. Both have been notified and reminded that the game has started.
HypersomniacLive
The Reluctant Voter
Registered: Sep 2011
From Vatican City
muddysneakers
Dinosaur
Registered: Mar 2010
From United States
Posted November 07, 2018
Apologies if it was already stated but I didn't see it. For the purposes of the Parity Cop role does successive investigations of the neutral roles (lyncher and survivor) result in the same alignment being returned?
bler144
μαϊμού
Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
Posted November 07, 2018
[...] Totally want them to be town: Pineapple [...]
I do have an answer though but have to run to dinner.
Barely slept last night (sick household) so involvement will likely be minimal tonight, but appears there's not much on the table other than mechanics/roles and people set on talking more to the mod than each other. >< So...
back in a bit
Lifthrasil
Bring the GOG-Downloader back!
Registered: Apr 2011
From Germany
Posted November 07, 2018
Yes. If there are two neutrals, they will be considered the same alignment.
muddysneakers
Dinosaur
Registered: Mar 2010
From United States
bler144
μαϊμού
Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
Posted November 07, 2018
Why cristi?
And if your answer is "RVS" - why is your RVS coming in your fourth post rather than your first?
Great? I mean, best case you're setting a very low bar. ;)
supplementscene: In terms of numbers and this is important. There will be at least 4 players voting against towns interests and perhaps 5 depending on the number of witches (we know there are at least 2 depending on the number of Goons). Errr...that's a dangerous assumption. Neutrals can be unpredictable depending on both the player and the game state. The lyncher is only anti-town if their target is town, which it may or may not be. If the lyncher's target is maf, the lyncher becomes pro-town, generally - assuming they play to that wincon rather than just trying to coast it out as neutral.
We've seen cases where maf have specifically co-opted neutrals (Leonard in the dungeon), but also cases where neutrals have played as committed pro-town (Tammy & cristi in doghavenwoodville) from start to end.
Also, consider that the presence of the vengeful town changes that calculus you're assuming pretty significantly.
SirPrimalform: So that's why it's called prime suspect! Because all the killers do things in prime numbers. Good show.
...scene/lift interaction is a mess.
OT: The 'balance' of roles in general is a fascinating jumbled mess.
I'd completely forgotten Damnation was even playing.
bler144: [...] Overall impressions/early wagers:
[...] Totally want them to be town: Pineapple [...]
HypersomniacLive: Impression or wager? Heh. I'm not even sure where you're going with this or why.
Why would I wager on something without any impression? I don't think I was thinking of them as necessarily discrete categories.
Similar to SPF, I like that the entry is casual but direct, no agenda. Relevant. good first impression.
Though since then, P1na seems to have settled into just goofing, which is NAI on its own, though perhaps undercuts the immediate impression (caveat: only game I recall P1na in was Lift's other game) but...will be interesting with SPF/Joe both also playing depending on alignments.
I'm curious to see if you're going to change up, but your first two posts seem to deliberately project "NEUTRAL" particularly in context. Or would you disagree?
Current view:
absent:
Ix
Joe
safe enough for D1:
SPF
cristi
flub
P1na
null:
ZFR
problematic:
scene
mud
Would vote:
HSL
agent
And if your answer is "RVS" - why is your RVS coming in your fourth post rather than your first?
Great? I mean, best case you're setting a very low bar. ;)
We've seen cases where maf have specifically co-opted neutrals (Leonard in the dungeon), but also cases where neutrals have played as committed pro-town (Tammy & cristi in doghavenwoodville) from start to end.
Also, consider that the presence of the vengeful town changes that calculus you're assuming pretty significantly.
...scene/lift interaction is a mess.
OT: The 'balance' of roles in general is a fascinating jumbled mess.
I'd completely forgotten Damnation was even playing.
[...] Totally want them to be town: Pineapple [...]
Why would I wager on something without any impression? I don't think I was thinking of them as necessarily discrete categories.
Similar to SPF, I like that the entry is casual but direct, no agenda. Relevant. good first impression.
Though since then, P1na seems to have settled into just goofing, which is NAI on its own, though perhaps undercuts the immediate impression (caveat: only game I recall P1na in was Lift's other game) but...will be interesting with SPF/Joe both also playing depending on alignments.
I'm curious to see if you're going to change up, but your first two posts seem to deliberately project "NEUTRAL" particularly in context. Or would you disagree?
Current view:
absent:
Ix
Joe
safe enough for D1:
SPF
cristi
flub
P1na
null:
ZFR
problematic:
scene
mud
Would vote:
HSL
agent
bler144
μαϊμού
Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
Posted November 07, 2018
Didn't refresh, apparently.
bler144: appears there's not much on the table other than mechanics/roles and people set on talking more to the mod than each other. >< So... 
muddysneakers: How do these things usually get started? Town mislynches on D1 and analyzes how everyone voted? Well, there you go. That's something.
Lately we've been on a kick of ending D1 with no lynch, though that's not possible here.
Broadly speaking, i think town's record on D1 is probably roughly similar to random chance - if we lynch well, there's a big edge going into D2. Lynch poorly, and, well, odds are you probably will, but if you mislynch well at least, you might get usable information. The no lynch, imo, results from a tendency here to dawdle in getting even a first wagon started, and then there's no time to do anything else when you get a good claim or there's just too much resistance.
But there's only so many votes to go around, and most (statistically) will fall on town. So who you questions/press matters, who you lay off matters, and why.
My personal preference is always to have 2-3 serious wagons d1, as that increases the odds one of them will be on target, and give at least something to try and read later on, but you can't just say it, it has to be relatively organic. I have occasionally voted on counter-wagons just to make sure there are at least two in play, however. One wagon is all eggs = one basket.
Game setup matters as well - if this were a traditional GOG game with a 2 week D1, then poking around for three RL days is no big whup. This setup is largely open, and the days are relatively brief, so the fact that we're halfway through stage 1 with most of the talk being about mechanics is a problem.
If you're town, your best course is to ask questions (as you've done here, albeit this is still probably a bit too much on the mechanics side vs. asking why I said what I said to HSL, or asking him why he responded to what he did vs. anything else, why he voted P1na, etc), and observe who responds and how.
We have a cultural split here on how much of your observation you should share (cristi and I are both on the share broadly side, trent, OTOH would be on the cards close to the chest side), so that I'll leave to you, but you should be asking questions about what other players observe/think. Right now there's not much to go on, but if no one asks questions, it will probably remain that way and the final vote will be random and fairly meaningless if flip is town/neutral.
In which case mislynch votes mean even less because it's easy to justify being off/on a wagon if it comes down to "Deadline! Had to vote somebody!"
gotta give medicine
Lately we've been on a kick of ending D1 with no lynch, though that's not possible here.
Broadly speaking, i think town's record on D1 is probably roughly similar to random chance - if we lynch well, there's a big edge going into D2. Lynch poorly, and, well, odds are you probably will, but if you mislynch well at least, you might get usable information. The no lynch, imo, results from a tendency here to dawdle in getting even a first wagon started, and then there's no time to do anything else when you get a good claim or there's just too much resistance.
But there's only so many votes to go around, and most (statistically) will fall on town. So who you questions/press matters, who you lay off matters, and why.
My personal preference is always to have 2-3 serious wagons d1, as that increases the odds one of them will be on target, and give at least something to try and read later on, but you can't just say it, it has to be relatively organic. I have occasionally voted on counter-wagons just to make sure there are at least two in play, however. One wagon is all eggs = one basket.
Game setup matters as well - if this were a traditional GOG game with a 2 week D1, then poking around for three RL days is no big whup. This setup is largely open, and the days are relatively brief, so the fact that we're halfway through stage 1 with most of the talk being about mechanics is a problem.
If you're town, your best course is to ask questions (as you've done here, albeit this is still probably a bit too much on the mechanics side vs. asking why I said what I said to HSL, or asking him why he responded to what he did vs. anything else, why he voted P1na, etc), and observe who responds and how.
We have a cultural split here on how much of your observation you should share (cristi and I are both on the share broadly side, trent, OTOH would be on the cards close to the chest side), so that I'll leave to you, but you should be asking questions about what other players observe/think. Right now there's not much to go on, but if no one asks questions, it will probably remain that way and the final vote will be random and fairly meaningless if flip is town/neutral.
In which case mislynch votes mean even less because it's easy to justify being off/on a wagon if it comes down to "Deadline! Had to vote somebody!"
gotta give medicine
muddysneakers
Dinosaur
Registered: Mar 2010
From United States
Posted November 07, 2018
And if your answer is "RVS" - why is your RVS coming in your fourth post rather than your first?
Why did you vote agent and what makes you lean scum on HSL?
How are scene and I problematic?