I would bet it on mod (we do not have such bug while testing F2 - and we test it hard :D ) but you can edit your char to put more skill points in outdoorsman skill - that might lower error. Use FALCHE2 to do so (well - its in the name of the game play so do not has any remorse, any regrets ;) ).
Also you can try to make your luck higher or lower - it also might support you in that case.
Have a good game ;-)