That was my point ;-)

What are these 'points' of which you speak? This sounds like advanced technology! I find this worrisome and threatening! I shall alert the collective...

Now I have a picture in my head of you running into a field as a beam of light shoots down and the aliens take you into their ship, and the whole time you're screaming "He has points!!! He has points!!!" LOL

I'll be nice to you and provide it in advance.

By it I mean right now:

Leonard – 5 - Krypsyn, yogsloth, trentonlf, flubbucket, agentcarr
trentonlf – 2 – JMich, cristigale
bler – 1 – Rwarehall
flubbucket – 1 – bler

not voting – 3 - Leonard, Sage, CSPVG


Leonard is closest to lynch with 5 votes at L-2.


Let me know if anything is wrong.

I think that exchange uses up our daily ration of winking smiley faces.

My application is done! Now I just need to, y'know, pack and run errands get to bed early and stuff. NBD.

Ok, so I think here's where we stand in the bigger picture:

1) Kryp is goners at dusk, by brain eating vampire or whatever. If we're wrong on that, we're clearly not lynching him anyway. SO that leaves:
2) 11 possible lynch targets.

For sake of S&G let's assume 8 of 11 are town. Not a known, or a slip, just a back-of-matchbook estimate. Of those 8 I'm ballparking 3 have useful roles, and the remainder have lesser roles, vanilla roles, or just plain g'damn weird roles. "Zeppelin Pilot" or some shit. That would leave 3 as scum/independent. So on pure RVS, as a ballpark estimate assume odds look like this:

Chance we kill townie with useful power: 27%
Chance we kill scum/independent 27%
Chance we kill vanilla-ish townie: 45%

So Scenario 1: We lynch Leon and he was truthful on faction and role. Running RVS we would have done much better 1/4 of the time, about the same half the time, and much worse the other 1/4. That's not a great outcome, but it's not terrible.
Scenario 2: Leon was truthful about faction but lying about role. Probably bad for town, since he'd presumably be lying to cover another role. Maybe unwise, but not much town can do about it.
Scenario 3: Leon is lying about faction (role irrelevant) and it's likely a win 100% of the time, assuming independent is anti-town.

You can tinker with the assumptions on count of scum/roles and how that shifts the percentages, but that's the basic idea. Not sure we can do anything about Scenario 2, and that the calculus really comes down to scenario 1 vs 3. 3 is a big win. 1 isn't great, but it's ballpark of what we'd get half the time from straight RVS using those assumptions.

That's talking about collective group decision making, of course. An individual town looking at it would see a pool of 10 other candidates, so estimate 30% chance of nailing scum, and other 70% would depend on your own role. But blah blah blah I've got to go make dinner and then call my daughter.

We already have 2 town claims so far today, and I'm not sure more roles on the table this fast helps town. So I'm tempted to join the Leon bandwagon, on the mathematical proposition that "He's either lying, or if not, hey, it could be worse!" And of course the reality that, even with death looming over us, he's still a bit...nonverbal.

Back in 2 hours or so before I call it an early night.

Wait, those are rationed now?! Dangit! Nobody told me!

The rest of your post involves math. Usually, I like math. Like, way more than normal people do (Yes, I am admitting I am abnormal). The trouble is that someone, you know who you are, started talking to me about Objectivism. so.. after you logged off, I had to do a few shots. It is a thing, okay!

Well, long story short, I have a link. I am breaking my no link rule because this is just a song I really like. So there... and stuff...

Oh yeah... Bler144 is totes town, and we can't be friends anymore if you don't think so as well. Maybe... dunno. Let me ask my bottle for advice... It isn't talking to me now.. come back later.

Well, I may as well post my reads now, as I may be dead by morning :(
Cristigale: leaning town, her play is kind of similar to last game however. She should still be watched.
JMich: leaning town. I don't really see JMich as scum at all, I'm not exactly sure what the point of the vote on Bookwyrm was, but otherwise he seems to be actively scum hunting.
bler: neutral. He is probably one of the most active posters, and yet I still don't really have a feeling on him. Does anyone else find this?
agentcarr: leaning scum. He really just seems to be taking whatever wagon is most popular and jumping in wih the most popular reason. I'm guessing he jumped off the Bookwyrm wagon trying to distance himself. Also seems to know more than a newbie could.
yogsloth: neutral. Scum hunting, barking up the wrong tree though. Could be all those pain meds, I will forgive him :P
CSPVG: neutral. Hard to read as well, seems to be helping town.
RWarehall: neutral. Similar to CSPVG.
trentonlf: leaning scum. I don't like the defence of his hammer it is too strong. Overreaction over a slip I think.
Sage: neutral. Lots of question, lots of questions. Questions aren't bad, necessarily.
flubbucket: neutral. Lurking a little, but not as much as CSPVG/RWarehall.

Sorry for this post, another unhelpful one I'm sure, and long this time too :P

Hmmm...

Yep...

Hmmm...

Sure.. sure...

Fine.

Unvote: Leonard03
Vote: agentcarr16

The bottle has spoken.

You're just saying that so I'll feel bad when you come back from the dead again tomorrow as a zombie.

And dammit, it worked. Now, instead of voting for you I'll have to build you a shed out back where we can play xbox and drink beer.

Thanks, Shaun.

I dunno, I think I have a pretty good read. Only a little bit of confusion.

It's enough of an effort that I'll hold off. I like my vote where it's at. And since me voting wouldn't push us into nighttime anyway that means I need to try and login at some point tomorrow either way.

Which blows - I just wanted to sleep on the plane all day and then go get drunk and listen to music on Bourbon Street all night and into Sunday. Come on, people, is that too much to ask?

Apparently yes. Yes it is too much to ask.

Anyway, have fun playing. If I have wifi on my layover I'll try and check in then, otherwise probably not til whenever I get to the hotel.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Your interview is in The Big Easy? Yeah.. I no longer feel even a little bit sorry for you. Have fun. :)

Wrench in the gears time.

I think Leonard may be telling the truth about his role. I have no idea why Krypsyn would be the Night Kill, unless scum were fed up with his youtube links. Leonard makes a bit of a better choice, mainly due to his lack of posting during Day 1 (no fault of his, but still no posts). Could it be that scum decided to go after him, but the kill was redirected to Krypsyn instead? While I also thought this could explain the "real NK" comment, that was made by Leonard, so it can't be due to that.

P.S. I do agree that Leonard will have to be policy lynched at some point.

Or, maybe I was just so awesome with my reads, they got scared and killed me. They were banking on the fact that nobody would pay attention me. ;)