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PookaMustard: A side note...an Epic Cop...that certainly isn't a run of the mill role, huh. That, with RWarehall's flip, makes me think this game is probably Role Madness.
I sure hope no one takes this bait and any and all talk about ROLES is avoided

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Carradice: It does not make sense that scum has Cop powers, unless it is a name cop, don't you think? Finding the rare Neutral is not that useful for them.
This is not true at all, as has already been pointed out Role Cop is a very common Power role for scum.


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GameRager: Dammit....they got our bodyguard....damn damn damn.

Thankfully though, it seems we do have a cop/etc on the team.....hmm, I wonder who they investigated and what the results were(hopefully they will let us know somehow if need be).

Also HOW did they find one of our PRs? Luck, or do they(scum teams in general) have a way to find PRs in some games?

(If anyone more knowledgeable in the game could help me on the second question it'd be appreciated)
This post makes you look really bad

First off if you are Town as you are implying with this post, exactly how are you so sure we have cop/etc on the team (as you put it)?

Secondly, seeing as how there is a myriad of ways scum can hit a PR on Night 1 in any game and you have played numerous games this question screams "Woe is me, I don't understand this game at all, please help me as I'm just an innocent Town player who doesn't know what to do".
Baa! What's up with Wizards' fixation on sheep?
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PookaMustard: I don't know how to interpret it, whether it came from a town or mafia mindset. It seems likely that a Town Flocke thought to stay to the wagon he believed in, mine, rather than "try" Micro so to say. It's also just as likely that a Mafia Flocke saw his scumbuddy Micro getting too much heat but didn't have the idea of bussing for town points.

That said, I think Mafia Flocke is less likely. That effort of reading between the lines and trying to find people communicating in code is, as RW put it, a Town effort. I don't see that kind of play coming from scum.
Yeah, it could go either way, but it IS odd that every "veteran" player I saw kept saying essentially "nolynch is bad....town should always lynch D1" & Flocke still chose to not hammer and get us a lynch.

Of course Rwarehall did as well, but he has been vetted town after his "passing".

And add to that all the players(myself included, yes) who kept shifting wagons and not helping us reach consensus......what a mess that last "day" was. :\

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PookaMustard: I am feeling a lot better now, thanks. GameRaget was a ZFR typo that I copied without fixing.
That's good to hear....also lol, I didn't even notice that typo he made....gotta pay more attention than even now, methinks.

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PookaMustard: Imagine a game where almost everyone has a role. That's Role Madness. There might be a vanilla or two in those games, but they're so low (or non-existent) that finding them is like finding a needle in the haystack.
Sounds interesting, to be sure, if it is indeed the case here.
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trentonlf: I sure hope no one takes this bait and any and all talk about ROLES is avoided
Why ANY talk? What about people just speculating what roles might be in the game, as long as no one gives away anything about their own possible roles?

I agree being cautious is prudent, but saying we shouldn't talk AT ALL about such things sounds a bit over the top.

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trentonlf: This post makes you look really bad.

First off if you are Town as you are implying with this post, exactly how are you so sure we have cop/etc on the team (as you put it)?
Post 579, part 2.....and also that(according to what i've read on the role)supposedly it's usually(though not always) a town PR.

So yeah, I jumped the gun and assume a bit with that post, but I am leaning more towards it likely being a town PR than a scum one based on the mafia wiki/etc info & my gut instinct.

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trentonlf: Secondly, seeing as how there is a myriad of ways scum can hit a PR on Night 1 in any game and you have played numerous games this question screams "Woe is me, I don't understand this game at all, please help me as I'm just an innocent Town player who doesn't know what to do".
If you know that i've played multiple games then you also likely know that my play style makes me a perpetual "green horn" & my poor memory IRL makes me forget things from time to time if I don't use that info often enough.

(The above queries are WHY I often bring up my play style and memory issues IRL....as often people seem to forget or "forget" that when judging my words and actions)
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RWarehall: Baa! What's up with Wizards' fixation on sheep?
(Note to all: Link is semi-nsfw YT video)

(Also when the game is over please try to remember to tell us who you protected and why)
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PookaMustard: I don't know how to interpret it, whether it came from a town or mafia mindset. It seems likely that a Town Flocke thought to stay to the wagon he believed in, mine, rather than "try" Micro so to say. It's also just as likely that a Mafia Flocke saw his scumbuddy Micro getting too much heat but didn't have the idea of bussing for town points.

That said, I think Mafia Flocke is less likely. That effort of reading between the lines and trying to find people communicating in code is, as RW put it, a Town effort. I don't see that kind of play coming from scum.
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GameRager: Yeah, it could go either way, but it IS odd that every "veteran" player I saw kept saying essentially "nolynch is bad....town should always lynch D1" & Flocke still chose to not hammer and get us a lynch.

Of course Rwarehall did as well, but he has been vetted town after his "passing".

And add to that all the players(myself included, yes) who kept shifting wagons and not helping us reach consensus......what a mess that last "day" was. :\

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PookaMustard: I am feeling a lot better now, thanks. GameRaget was a ZFR typo that I copied without fixing.
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GameRager: That's good to hear....also lol, I didn't even notice that typo he made....gotta pay more attention than even now, methinks.

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PookaMustard: Imagine a game where almost everyone has a role. That's Role Madness. There might be a vanilla or two in those games, but they're so low (or non-existent) that finding them is like finding a needle in the haystack.
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GameRager: Sounds interesting, to be sure, if it is indeed the case here.
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trentonlf: I sure hope no one takes this bait and any and all talk about ROLES is avoided
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GameRager: Why ANY talk? What about people just speculating what roles might be in the game, as long as no one gives away anything about their own possible roles?

I agree being cautious is prudent, but saying we shouldn't talk AT ALL about such things sounds a bit over the top.

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trentonlf: This post makes you look really bad.

First off if you are Town as you are implying with this post, exactly how are you so sure we have cop/etc on the team (as you put it)?
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GameRager: Post 579, part 2.....and also that(according to what i've read on the role)supposedly it's usually(though not always) a town PR.

So yeah, I jumped the gun and assume a bit with that post, but I am leaning more towards it likely being a town PR than a scum one based on the mafia wiki/etc info & my gut instinct.

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trentonlf: Secondly, seeing as how there is a myriad of ways scum can hit a PR on Night 1 in any game and you have played numerous games this question screams "Woe is me, I don't understand this game at all, please help me as I'm just an innocent Town player who doesn't know what to do".
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GameRager: If you know that i've played multiple games then you also likely know that my play style makes me a perpetual "green horn" & my poor memory IRL makes me forget things from time to time if I don't use that info often enough.

(The above queries are WHY I often bring up my play style and memory issues IRL....as often people seem to forget or "forget" that when judging my words and actions)
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GameRager: (Note to all: Link is semi-nsfw YT video)

(Also when the game is over please try to remember to tell us who you protected and why)
Tell me, what benefit is there for discussing roles or possible roles in the game right now? Even better, who would benefit from any talk about roles?

After you think on that for awhile and realize the answers are 1)None and 2)Scum, let’s move along to trying to figure out who might be scum based on actual play instead of roles/setup discussions.
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trentonlf: Tell me, what benefit is there for discussing roles or possible roles in the game right now? Even better, who would benefit from any talk about roles?
I was talking more about side talk/misc talk as the game goes along(for the sake of musing for the heck of it, for fun[i.e. what games are supposed to be about as well;)], etc) rather than just to use such to win the game.

Also I wasn't suggesting we talk solely or even the majority of the time about possible roles/etc, or even that we should do such at all....just that it wouldn't harm town(as your post seemed to imply from how I read it) to speculate a bit when there's free time between more serious/important posts.

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trentonlf: After you think on that for awhile and realize the answers are 1)None and 2)Scum, let’s move along to trying to figure out who might be scum based on actual play instead of roles/setup discussions.
Finding scum is important..i'll give you that.

So then tell me who(besides me of course) do you suspect and why?

I suspect currently: Flocke(slightly due to not hammering Micro when other more seasoned players kept telling us over to avoid a nolynch on "day" 1, and also posting very little) and Micro(due to his train growing then shrinking then growing again and stopping just short of hammer).

Also less suspect but still on the list: Lift(due to that whole bout with agent on "day" 1 and the sticking to the dropping of the LAL thing) and Yog(due to his sticking onto the agent "silly claim" train and making one of his own), and Micro.

As for the others: I cannot really get a read atm from the reads I did of the others who posted a good number of posts, and the less frequent posters could go either way I guess.
2x now i've had a super long post ready to post (covering everything from toDay through 600) and had it deleted by operator error or my browser refreshing when i tried to scroll too quickly -- thus deleting the quick post.
So annoying so that i almost want to give up trying atm.

TL; DR: Yogs & GR are most likely scum, Pooka I'm less sure of than I was yesterDay but still consider scum. Caesar leans fluff/scum to me
Trent leans solid town.
Joe/pooka debate says if one is scum, the other is prob town. unless bussing.
ISO of RW clears me and 595 stinks to high heaven.
Wondering why 592 #A. spells out "TRUST", and if I should do a reread of all 600+ posts so far in one sitting. ugh.


Note: Also, game 57 barely reached around 1100 posts, and we are over halfway there on D2.

very busy this week with IRL, so while I hope to retype my post a 3rd time, idk when--or if--it will happen.

neighborizing is NAI, so what benefit it is, idk atm.
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Microfish_1: 2x now i've had a super long post ready to post (covering everything from toDay through 600) and had it deleted by operator error or my browser refreshing when i tried to scroll too quickly -- thus deleting the quick post.
So annoying so that i almost want to give up trying atm.
This is why I copy my posts to notepad/etc and check for formatting errors to make sure I have a backup(in case of site problems or if I made a formatting error).

Also don't give up...I really want to see what you have to say. :)

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Microfish_1: TL; DR: Yogs & GR are most likely scum, Pooka I'm less sure of than I was yesterDay but still consider scum. Caesar leans fluff/scum to me
Why Yog and me, if I may ask...ditto for Pooka and Caesar.

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Microfish_1: ISO of RW clears me and 595 stinks to high heaven.
How does it clear you?
(I don't do ISOs much if ever, so I want to know what you mean by this as I am genuinely curious)

Also I note that 595 is the one where Yog points out Flocke's lack of hammer on the previous "day".......why does it stink? I thought you and others wanted a lynch(ANY lynch) on D1 to help us find scum?

(Of course, to be fair/honest, I suspect him as well.....imo one of you two is likely scum.....I dunno which, though, but i'm leaning a bit more towards Yog atm)

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Microfish_1: Wondering why 592 #A. spells out "TRUST", and if I should do a reread of all 600+ posts so far in one sitting. ugh.
That bit talking about agent?

It's likely nothing, nothing at all.....btw, want a bite of my ham sandwich? It is a bit dry and all(and messy because of being so dry), but still very tasty, I think.

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Microfish_1: Note: Also, game 57 barely reached around 1100 posts, and we are over halfway there on D2.
I know, but I LIKE it...so much to reply to. :D

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Microfish_1: very busy this week with IRL, so while I hope to retype my post a 3rd time, idk when--or if--it will happen.
Well make sure to weigh in a bit so we know what your thought are from time to time. :)

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Microfish_1: neighborizing is NAI, so what benefit it is, idk atm.
I dunno either(it's a new role to me as this is the first game i've ever heard of it), but I guess if both are town then they could maybe get their ducks in a row and both vote the same and maybe catch scum that way? I dunno...i'm spitballing atm.
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Carradice: Very interesting thoughts. He was at minus-1. He could have been hammered... Staying there being Mafia might have been throwing him under the bus in D1, a bit too soon, don't you think?Thanks for sharing.
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PookaMustard: Mafiosos bus each other all the time for Town points. Wouldn't have been strange.

Remember the Watcher of Kalunga incident we keep bringing up? In that very same game, Trent was Agent's scumbuddy, and he voted for him, on Day 1, and successfully got him lynched.
All right, so scum bussing and successfully lynching scumbuddies on D1 is a regular occurrence. Very well.

Then, why a veteran player such as @yogsloth neglects that fact when he says:

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PookaMustard: If microfish is scum, I won’t believe any of his buddies were on that wagon… which means, assuming three mafia, his partners have to be exactly 2/4 of Flocke, joppo, Lift, and Carradice
Surprising and worrying.

Plus, being privvy on the information of one of those mentioned, 2/3 mafiosi should be Flocke, joppo, Lift? That means, Lift plus either joppo or Flocke? Or even joppo AND Flocke. No way. No can do. But, @yogsloth also forgot to mention @GR as part of the seven (minus RWarehall) who were not on @Microfish's bandwagon at closing time.

=> Sure it looks like @yogsloth is sowing seeds for a case or cases against specific people, constructed on an intellectually dishonest way (meaning, neglecting factors that he knows well). Someone who wants to clear the waters does not proceed in this way.

What is more, why @yogsloth does not even consider the opposite possibility, that @Microfish is NOT scum, and that all the mafiosos were doing their best and failing... Because that bandwagon might be... Let us see... trent, Pooka, yogsloth, ConsulCaesar, SirPrimalform. agent, Joe. Agent has a believable claim, so that leaves...

trent, Pooka, yogsloth, ConsulCaesar, SirPrimalform, Joe

Who do you think might NOT be scum in this list? Who IS suspicious?

Another question: do you think that Micro being town implies Pooka being non-town?

Do you think that @Micro being scum implies that there are no scumbuddies in his bandwagon?

Are these two cases the only possibilities for the bandwagons?

Hum.
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Why no one is commenting on the evaporated @Agentcarr's bandwagon? As of #460 it was this: agent 6 - RWarehall, Lift, SirPrimalform, Joe, Micro, GameRager

_____


People who keep calling for an open debate on roles and powers, sure are looking scummy. @GR gets extra points for insisting on it, even after @trent's call to abandon all discussion over roles.

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PookaMustard: There is a version of the Cop called the Role Cop. Rather than tell you the alignment of the player, it tells you the role of the player. For example, if the Role Cop investigates a person, he will get a PM saying that person is a Doctor. Role cops benefit the Mafia A LOT.
Thanks for explaining that. Had read about affiliation cop and name cop so far.

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@Microfish: A lightweight text editor is the way to go... Lost already 2 posts (including a previous version of this one). No problem if you just copy. The trap: posts that initially are intended to be quick & short often end up growing. Plus, if you lose even a short one, it is fastidious anyway.

The upside is that re-writing often leads to clearer ideas and a reduced extension, compared to the first draft.

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Microfish_1: TL; DR: Yogs & GR are most likely scum, Pooka I'm less sure of than I was yesterDay but still consider scum. Caesar leans fluff/scum to me
Trent leans solid town.
Joe/pooka debate says if one is scum, the other is prob town. unless bussing.
ISO of RW clears me and 595 stinks to high heaven.
Wondering why 592 #A. spells out "TRUST", and if I should do a reread of all 600+ posts so far in one sitting. ugh.
It seems that you want to expand this a bit later, but right now, no idea what the reference to #592 means.
The point about RW ISO, surely was an important part of the lost post, and about everyone will be interested in reading it, probably.
@Pooka has offered some solid ideas on D2, at least. Also, some people voted for Pooka just on the grounds of 'I don't know what you are', which is way less than can be said about people who are leaning scum step by step. It would be nice if some presented something coherent that could be read, as apparently the suspicious bits have escaped the attention of many of us.
Agreed on #595.
Hmmm, who's not shown up yet? FlockeSchnee and Lift, anyone else?

I'd like to hear who Agent neighbourised. I know it's NAI, but I don't see a downside in everyone knowing and having it confirmed by said person. In the unlikely event that Agent was scum lying about being a neighbouriser it would let us take down his buddy anyway.
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PookaMustard: Remember the Watcher of Kalunga incident we keep bringing up? In that very same game, Trent was Agent's scumbuddy, and he voted for him, on Day 1, and successfully got him lynched.
You may also remember that we lynched Trent the very next day because of how weird he was about bussing Agent...

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GameRager: Why ANY talk? What about people just speculating what roles might be in the game, as long as no one gives away anything about their own possible roles?

I agree being cautious is prudent, but saying we shouldn't talk AT ALL about such things sounds a bit over the top.
I agree with trent, it's too early to be talking about roles in this way. Later on role discussion can be an important part, but at this stage it's at best a distraction and at worst it risks outing essential PRs. Let's not do it at the moment.

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Microfish_1: neighborizing is NAI, so what benefit it is, idk atm.
Tricky. I'm not sure if there's any disadvantage to knowing who Agent neighbourised. There is of course the possibility that he neighbourised scum.
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trentonlf: I sure hope no one takes this bait and any and all talk about ROLES is avoided
I find it worrying that you're calling that "bait." As if I had ulterior motives or something.

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GameRager: Yeah, it could go either way, but it IS odd that every "veteran" player I saw kept saying essentially "nolynch is bad....town should always lynch D1" & Flocke still chose to not hammer and get us a lynch.

And add to that all the players(myself included, yes) who kept shifting wagons and not helping us reach consensus......what a mess that last "day" was. :\
Not to beat a dead horse, but you really didn't help the previous Day with your lack of vote. Granted it's slightly better than the no-lynch vote, but you ultimately chose not to vote anyone at all. And that was indeed, after you saw "every "veteran" player kept saying essentially nolynch is bad....town should always lynch D1."

I remembered something I sent ZFR right after the no-lynch was announced. Let me post it here for fun.

GOG Mafia: NO-LYNCH BAD
Also GOG Mafia: happily ends the day no-lynch

The worst part about this is that history repeats itself one too many times here. I'd suggest we should get our act together next game. Enough rambling for me.

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Carradice: Then, why a veteran player such as @yogsloth neglects that fact
I've no idea why he just doesn't neglect the fact but brazenly throws it out under the bus (heh). In a game where you can't be too certain of what's going on around you, he's awfully quick to point out that if Micro is scum, his buddies aren't on his wagon. I'm interested in hearing why he thinks his buddies can't be on a Scum Micro wagon, or what things would be like if he were Town Micro.

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SirPrimalform: You may also remember that we lynched Trent the very next day because of how weird he was about bussing Agent...
Indeed. Bussing isn't guaranteed to 100% work without backfiring, but the fact it happened and we caught him on it is what's more important.

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SirPrimalform: FlockeSchnee and Lift, anyone else?
Joppo.
Sorry. I'm travelling from meeting to meeting today. No time to read. Will check in later.
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GameRager: I was talking more about side talk/misc talk as the game goes along(for the sake of musing for the heck of it, for fun[i.e. what games are supposed to be about as well;)], etc) rather than just to use such to win the game.

Also I wasn't suggesting we talk solely or even the majority of the time about possible roles/etc, or even that we should do such at all....just that it wouldn't harm town(as your post seemed to imply from how I read it) to speculate a bit when there's free time between more serious/important posts.

Finding scum is important..i'll give you that.

So then tell me who(besides me of course) do you suspect and why?
At this moment there is truly no reason for any role discussion to happen, it has the high possibility of someone revealing a role without meaning to (or meaning to if scum) and that just gives scum a target. I can harp all day on the pointlessness of discussing roles, and even this discussion is pointless. Role talk will happen, it is inevitable, but now is not the time for it.

I have several people I suspect, and most of them are still the ones I listed on Day 1, but my opinion is starting to shift of some people. I am looking forward to see what the people who have yet to appear for this day to see what they have to say.
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Carradice: Why no one is commenting on the evaporated @Agentcarr's bandwagon? As of #460 it was this: agent 6 - RWarehall, Lift, SirPrimalform, Joe, Micro, GameRager
Well we know Rwarehall was town...dunno about the others(besides myself, that is).

As for me: I dropped my vote back then when it became apparent that wagon wasn't going to happen...as others kept saying we needed a lynch for info, so I tried my best to help get those(mostly from my top suspects list) lynched so we could analyze the wagon...even though I had a feeling we wouldn't reach consensus by the end of D1.

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Carradice: People who keep calling for an open debate on roles and powers, sure are looking scummy. @GR gets extra points for insisting on it, even after @trent's call to abandon all discussion over roles.
I know this likely won't count for much, but(as I keep saying) I play as I feel & to have fun first and foremost, and that priority is over all else.....even slightly over winning the game.

As such I thought at that time that it might be fun to just speculate about what rules we might have....not for anyone to state what roles they have or any other info that might compromise a town player.
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SirPrimalform: I agree with trent, it's too early to be talking about roles in this way. Later on role discussion can be an important part, but at this stage it's at best a distraction and at worst it risks outing essential PRs. Let's not do it at the moment.
Fair enough
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PookaMustard: I find it worrying that you're calling that "bait." As if I had ulterior motives or something.
Agreed somewhat....either trent is town and one of those "by the book/numbers, win at all costs" kinds of town players, or scum trying to throw shade on you....though I lean more towards him being town atm.

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PookaMustard: Not to beat a dead horse, but you really didn't help the previous Day with your lack of vote. Granted it's slightly better than the no-lynch vote, but you ultimately chose not to vote anyone at all. And that was indeed, after you saw "every "veteran" player kept saying essentially nolynch is bad....town should always lynch D1."
I voted nolynch mainly because I felt consensus wouldn't be achieved due to vote fracturing. Others said(as you stated) that nolynch is bad, so I voted for those I suspected the most(at that time) while hoping for a lynch & at the same time feeling deep down we wouldn't get one.

As such, I then dropped voting entirely as I more or less could see the writing on the wall & that there was likely little I could do to change it.

Could I have voted someone? Sure, but without the other needed votes it was almost pointless(imo) to even bother.
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trentonlf: At this moment there is truly no reason for any role discussion to happen, it has the high possibility of someone revealing a role without meaning to (or meaning to if scum) and that just gives scum a target. I can harp all day on the pointlessness of discussing roles, and even this discussion is pointless. Role talk will happen, it is inevitable, but now is not the time for it.
Fair enough & point taken, though a question if I may: Couldn't that same slipping of roles also happen with scum and help us win if roles were discussed?

(Note that I have dropped the idea of any role discussion at this time...I am just curious on that point atm)

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trentonlf: I have several people I suspect, and most of them are still the ones I listed on Day 1, but my opinion is starting to shift of some people. I am looking forward to see what the people who have yet to appear for this day to see what they have to say.
Me as well...especially the ones who post rarely.
Goodbye RW, you are gonna be missed. Recover well under madam Pomfrey's care.

BTW, is it just me that find it deliciously ironic to see a character that was played by Robert Pattinson described as a "Macho Bodyguard"? :D

To all of you: I owe an apology. I believed I would be able to come back in time to change my vote, but Real Life decided otherwise.
@Micro: in a way, you've been given a second chance. Make it count; help us nail scum today. You already have a collective of people suspecting you so if you're town give us reasons that will make us realize it was better not have you lynched, otherwise D2 could end worse than D1 did.

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GameRager: Also HOW did they find one of our PRs? Luck, or do they(scum teams in general) have a way to find PRs in some games?
AFAIK scum can find PRs with a Role Cop but it requires a night action... Sorry, a Special Casting Phase action. So the one thing we can be certain of is that they didn't choose RW due to discovering his role through a Role Cop.
(Barring bizarre rules of course. MafiaWiki says there existed extremely not-traditional games where some roles could act during the day instead of the night, but I really don't think that our host would do that to us. It would be extremely bastard)

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GameRager: To all: What does everyone think of the above musing on Flocke and his hesitation to lynch "yesterday"?
While he won't step out of it scot free, I don't think it is as bad as it appears when you say it like that. First of all he's a new player and mistakes are fairly common when you're learning the ropes. Second, even RW who is the one player whose townness we can be sure of didn't lynch. If an experienced player like him can make that blunder, so does FlockeSchnee.

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yogsloth: As to whether RW made a save or not, menh, who cares, and it's probably utterly useless to speculate. I like to think he did, just to bestow extra glory on him in Valhalla... unless he made the save on a vanilla townie lol
It could be worse than die protecting a vanilla townie. He might have died protecting a 3rd-party... even worse if anti-town. *facepalm* Yeah let's hope he protected someone very useful instead.

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GameRager: Well maybe Rwarehall protected Agent(due to his claim) or maybe he ferreted out who another PR might be and protected them Instead. :|
Agent? I find it really unlikely. He wasn't even confirmed town and to be honest neighbourizer is a pretty crappy PR. Taking a bullet for Agent means not doing the same for a doctor or cop later. What's more, RW is one of the more skilled scumhunters, it wouldn't make much sense to take a bullet for someone who probably wouldn't be as skilled.
Another PR is a possibility, but we'd better not discuss theories on this. It will only help scum narrow their target list.

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SirPrimalform: Hmmm, who's not shown up yet? FlockeSchnee and Lift, anyone else?
Me too. I actually did arrive a while ago but had lots to read before I post. I also had to give some thoughts to some players' actions and wonder about the reason RW died. More on that below.

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SirPrimalform: I'd like to hear who Agent neighbourised. I know it's NAI
I suppose you're right about this. I don't see any downsides in us knowing, tho I gotta admit all it does is confirm that Agent didn't say a lie that would be so easy to find, only a major idiot would spout it.


Ok so here's what I'm thinking. I have 4 theories why RW was killed

1) He was getting close to nailing a scum who didn't like the heat.
2) He was far from scum, but they were getting heat elsewhere so they decided that it would be a good idea to move the focus to who RW suspected at the time.
3) Totally random kill (yeah, right).
4) He used his PR to cover someone who was the chosen NK.

Theory 4 has a problem I mentioned above: RW would only protect people he had good reason to assume were not just townies but also decent PRs. Otherwise it's just exchanging one life for another, possibly less useful at scumhunting.
Theory 3 is laughable. Let's not waste time on it.
Theories 1 and 2 are both reasonable. I guess we'd better check who he suspected at the end of the previous day and who he didn't but others did.

#565 he said he was voting Pooka for the lack of a better read among many others: SPF, Joe, Trent or Yog. That's way too many for us to think he was close to nailing someone. But just before in #559 his post was "Any chance of us revisiting Caesar or Agent?" Hmmmm, it's possible they are scum and saw this as a sign he would be more agressive to get one of them lynched on D2.
On the other hand who was taking heat from other players but not RW? Micro is the most obvious choice. But I don't think it makes sense for Micro to kill the main person who was helping him overturn the notion he is scum. Of course, there's WIFOM and all... but would Micro really do it?

In the end Agent and Caesar go up a notch in my scum-o-meter.