Because, like I said before, I usually read it in your mood and even without the fluff eventually some signs of your mood get through. And they are not exactly screaming "regular town!GH" in this game.

And that was even before I factor in the self-vote. I really feel like voting you for that, but I reckon we have more to gain by using what time we have left. Because even if we get your lynch through and that doesn't end the game we would still have to figure out who the other scum is. Might as well start working on that toDay.

First, yes I do. Taking some risks became a necessity this late in the game. We don't have a cop to tell us 100% sure who is scum, so basically it comes to passing a treshhold of certainty. Which I believe Pooka was close to when the Day started, and was passed when you voted yourself. Pooka did not put you in quickhammer range, you did. I see his vote as a form of gauging a reaction and in that sense it was successful even if with an unexpected reaction.

Lastly, yeah, no. I'm not doing this dance right now. I see this as nothing but a repeat of the tactic I pointed in #693:
Which is even worse because there is no toMorrow if we mislynch, so zero benefit for town!you to use it.

Agreed.

Good to see you back mate and glad that you finally had some decent sleep. I'm not upset at all, in fact I'm relieved.
I admit a new NL is not a pleasant thought, but we wouldn't have that option if we didn't let a second NL happen. So it's on us now to use that time if we need it to figure out both mafiosi.
I like your analysis.

Too late. I needed it to post what is in #725. But thanks anyway.

Agreed. Assuming that this is town!GH, it doesn't help Town at all if in the same move where he confirms one scum he also makes himself look scummy as heck because now he's going to have to convince several townies that the scummiest-looking out of the conflict is actually town. People will end up voting out the one that looks scummy and his newfound certainty will net absolutely nothing.
Knowing something and convincing your peers of that something are completely different things. Those who have participated in SH3, like GameRager did, remember that this is a lesson Scene learned the hard way.

Money would help more, but thanks.

Oh? In that case, do you imagine there could be a teensy little flaw in your plan? Of course, the circumstances now and then might be different so it's a worth a shot. (Including the possibility that your alignment is the difference. But whatever.)

Okay, I will give your theory some credibility just in case. I am willing to spend some hours rereading Pooka from the very beginning just to make sure he is who you say he is.

<emoticon with one raised eyebrow>

The near necessity of a third NL is a consequence of the second one, blame nmillar. As soon as I'd seen the second one happen I was pretty much resigned to the idea that there'd have to be a third at some point. Let's use the day to discuss, but I'm going to need a lot of convincing to vote for a lynch today.


While the ATE is NAI, I don't like it much. Obviously by stating that you will 100% vote for GH if he makes it through the night, you have ensured that town!GH will make it through the night, which means his survival is guaranteed regardless of alignment. In other words, if he's alive tomorrow it won't mean anything.

*/-------------------------------/*

Ok, wild theory time. What if neither GH or Pookina is scum, but Trent is? Trent saw GH at L-2, so he slammed his vote on there hoping his scumbuddy would be quick enough. Unfortunately for him, GH pulled his vote first.
Please pick holes in it if you see them.

+1 about the ATE being NAI and also not liking it. You have a point with the survival of town!GH, but then again which scum would ever NK the most suspected townie when they just need a mislynch to win? Unless if they knew that that townie had some powerful PR that could turn the game around the next Day. Not the case here.

Your wild theory is not impossible, but I find it a stretch. Both you and me were posting regularly during the L-2. A scum!Catte/Joppo would only need to stay posting actively until seeing Trent come online, a few quick meaningless posts to ensure both are in at the same time, BAM! Two votes in rapid succession. Trent's posts at the time don't look like an attempt to coordinate anything with you or me. He writes his single post with a vote and that's it.
That leaves a possibility for a Trent+Micro scumteam, but once again: why wouldn't Trent wait for Micro? Why vote when he has no idea how many hours until Micro shows up?

Those are good points. Still, he might have just been trying his luck.
I see no way that town!Trent could be certain enough that GH is scum that he'd casually put him at L-1 when we're in MyLo.

Obviously if GH is town, no scum team would NK him, but Trent's "I'll vite for him if he survives the night" still sounds a bit like a setup.

Maybe GH is scum, but if he isn't he's an awfully convenient distraction. There's got to have been at least one scum on his wagon when he was briefly at L-1 and I'm worried it might not have been him.

Extremely late EBWOP:

Trent's "I'll vote for him if he survives the night" still sounds a bit like a setup.

Totally you should just lynch me today

I'd rather NL. Why, do you fancy claiming scum?

*cracks fingers*
*gets a small bowl of ice cream*

So let's do this vote record thing. I'll follow Joppo's advice and copy bits of #633. After that would be an estimated 120 posts to skim over.

day 1:
#132 Pooka votes GH
#155 Flocke (Trent) votes GH
#193 Flocke (Trent) unvotes GH
#246 ZFR (TOWN) votes GH
#261 Blotunga (TOWN) votes GH
#277 ZFR (TOWN) unvotes GH (and votes Lift)
#289 GH votes Lift (TOWN)
#292 Lift (TOWN) votes GH

day 2:
#332 Pooka votes GH
#347 GH votes Bookwyrm (TOWN)
#372 Nmillar (Joppo) votes GH
#400 GH votes Nmillar (Joppo)
#424 Blotunga (TOWN) votes GH
#460 GH votes Trent
#507 Catte votes GH
#514 GH votes Micro
#519 GH votes Lift (TOWN)
#521 Nmillar (Joppo) unvotes GH, promises to revote in 45 minutes
#524 Nmillar (Joppo) revotes GH
#525 Blotunga (TOWN) unvotes GH (and votes Lift)

day 3:
#540 GH threatens to vote nmillar (Joppo) and put him at L-1 (he wasn't at L-1)
#544 GH votes nmillar
#595 Pooka votes GH
#639 GH unvotes nmillar (henceforth Joppo)
#649 GH votes Blotunga (TOWN)
#640 Catte votes GH
#658 GH unvotes Blotunga (TOWN)
#668 Blotunga (TOWN) votes GH
#669 GH votes Blotunga (TOWN)
#692 Pooka unvotes GH (and votes Blotunga)

day 4:
#705 GH votes NL
#707 Pooka votes GH (L-3)
#709 GH unvotes NL, votes himself (L-2)
#728 Trent votes GH (L-1)
#729 GH unvotes himself (L-2)
#732 GH votes NL
#748 Pooka unvotes GH (L-1)


OK, let's dice and slice and this thing.

Day 4: As noted, GH, Pooka and Trent joined the GH wagon, yet no quickhammer happened. Personally I strongly believe GH is the scum. Even if you don't believe my theory, you should at least believe that the probability of there being a scum on this wagon is high.

Day 3: GH only ever votes nmillar (Joppo) and blotunga (TOWN). Catte, Pooka and Blotunga (TOWN) vote him. Micro, Joppo, Trent and Bookwyrm (TOWN) don't vote him.

Day 2: GH votes Bookwyrm (TOWN), Lift (TOWN), Micro and nmillar (Joppo). Catte, Pooka, nmillar (Joppo), Blotunga (TOWN) vote him. Micro and Bookwyrm (TOWN) don't vote him.

Day 1: GH votes Lift (TOWN). Pooka, Flocke (Trent), ZFR (TOWN), Blotunga (TOWN) and Lift (TOWN) vote GH. Micro, Bookwyrm (TOWN), Catte and nmillar (Joppo) don't vote him.

I'm worried that Micro seems to almost never vote (neither on GH nor on anyone else), but I'm not feeling he's scum. You know what, might as well do this thing too:

likely town:
trentonlf
Joppo

neutral:
Catte
Microfish

likely scum:
GymHenson

Yeah, this alignment list will kill Town if the likely scum section consists of one dude. Yet I still can't find the other.
Hmm. I just realized trent doesn't have that many posts. Maybe it's easier to ISO substitutes?

While doing an ISO, I found this post by bookwyrm. Interesting. GH asks him why he hasn't made a list of suspects in case he'd get NK'd, and BW responds by saying he's been vocal about them and he doesn't even need to wait until he's a NK. That was on D3, right before he NK'd. Not sure what to do with this.

Anyway, that ISO was for Trent. He's feeling...like Trent. The GH vote is consistent with his style with going after whoever he believes is the most scummy, and at the moment that's GH for him. Does this mean Trent is cleared? No. Trent will go after GH whether he's Town or Mafia, so I don't think that's our "scum trent tell." Now what's giving me pause is how he brought GH to L-1 and...nobody quickvoted. Now, from his ISO, he wasn't really strong on lynching GH before post #728. In fact, as recently as #596 he has no interest in lynching GH or bookwyrm as he likes "how both are pushing and questioning." On the fifth of his posts after that (#703) he confronts GH for accusing bookwyrm and joppo for suspecting blotunga whom GH voted. Possible distancing? Would explain why he put GH at L-1 and nobody quickvoted, or rather, that GH quickly unvoted. BUT honestly this sounds too farfetched and way too obvious of a scumplay. And honestly, scum trent has better and more sly ways to still feel like town trent.

You know what, I'll consider trent lock-town based on this scenario alone, assuming GH is 100% our guy. There's no way a GH-Trent combo makes sense with what we currently know.

That's all I got right now and I've spent over an hour on this notepad. Don't expect any posts from me tomorrow though, work stuff.

"What is this? A center for ants!?" Derek Zoolander, Zoolander, 2001

Why not? It's just as productive as another NL

I'm here, catching up.

Bump please.

"The first rule of Fight Club is: You do not talk about Fight Club." -Tyler Durden, Fight Club, 1999

Love the wit and the attempt to draw out trent. Let me know if he does claim scum.

Hey! I'm not that bad am I? Er.... yes. :( Sorry about that.


Er, three things. 1) your math is off. 2) are you trying to pressure me into voting? ;-) I came here to vote because I was finally convinced enough in my gut that GH is scum to vote. Not sure yet who his counterpart would be but enough to vote him. Also, I have sympathy for Trent feeling rotten and wanting to get this over with. Not saying I agree with him, but he seems NAI. This is of course, NAI for him because he prides himself in being himself as town or scum.
3) what I just said. trent doesn't possess a scum tell. He prides himself in this.
4) you don't list yourself as town. Are you scum?

steeples fingers together in deep thought. While GH was able to convince me that you are more likely scum than you had been a few days ago, he did not convince me enough to move the bar much beyond "Town!pooka" to "leantown!pooka" or "scum!GH" to "leanscum!GH" . Soooo. Also, I have voted. Not often because I am muddling through this and no one is claiming scum, but...
I stayed off of the GH wagon because of the speed at which it built earlier toDay. I wanted to see what would happen, who would join, etc. The last thing I wanted to do was to bring him to L1 and have scum jump him, if he is town. The fact that he never got lunched, despite being at L2 for the longest time and L1 for a while does lend credence to the theory that at least one or more of GH, Pooka, and Trent are scum. Of these three, despite valiant efforts at staying alive (kudos for a strong defense), GH seems the scummiest.

Now I had to decide if you are scum trying to push me into voting for GH or not. I spent the night sleeping, playing WINGS remastered, and thinking.
So.... I have come to decide that our best bet at winning this thing is to lunch one of GH, Trent or Pooka.

Refreshes and AGH!!! Trent seems to be...nah, that's not a claim. It's a soft claim but earlier he softclaimed vanilla and claimed town. This changes things... I don't see scum!trent giving up like this, however. Would scum!trent push people to lunch him? I... well, I think that would be highly anti-team, and I don't think scum!trent would do that on the verge of victory. Of course, WIFOM and all that, but I feel this would be unlikely for town!trent. I'll reevaluate toMorrow.


So.... having thought the night about this, I have come to decide that GH is our single biggest chance at hitting scum. I allowed Bookwyrm to convince me otherwise YesterDay, and we collectively went for the unfortunate Blotunga.

vote GH

I believe this puts him at L2.

vote count please.

Thank you for the bump.

I agree that if GH is scum then Trent is lock-town and vice versa, I've been saying this since yesterDay

I would consider it a high-risk, high-reward strategy which isn't exactly outside of Trent's MO. Either people back down or, If he gets lynched then his buddy probably gets distance points.

Still, I think that the simplest and most likely explanation is GH being scum.