Posted August 05, 2015
Bookwyrm627
ADD Jumping Bean
Registered: Nov 2013
From United States
dedoporno
A bloody pirate!
Registered: Apr 2012
From Bulgaria
Posted August 05, 2015
Do you have a suggestion on who the [un]lucky scapegoat should be? Let me guess - not you!
The bolding is from me and highlights what made me go like this.
adaliabooks
"Vell, Zaphod's just zis guy, you know?"
Registered: Jun 2013
From United Kingdom
Posted August 05, 2015
Think about it. When someone dies we get a flip, we get an alignment (and a role and all the rest, but that's not quite as important), that's basically a cop investigation. Ok, we're one person down, but let's face it, how many of us are really such good players that us still being the game is equal to a cop investigation?
Plus, it's much easier to choose 3 (or 4) from 11 than from 13.
As for who to choose, that's much more difficult and I do get where you're coming from with the lack of wagon to analyse, but my idea isn't that we should all agree on a single person and lynch them at random, it's more that's how we should start. And some people will be more or less willing to take the hit, or to go along and those reactions can be used to start some actual scum hunting and increase the chances of hitting scum.
Plus, it's much easier to choose 3 (or 4) from 11 than from 13.
As for who to choose, that's much more difficult and I do get where you're coming from with the lack of wagon to analyse, but my idea isn't that we should all agree on a single person and lynch them at random, it's more that's how we should start. And some people will be more or less willing to take the hit, or to go along and those reactions can be used to start some actual scum hunting and increase the chances of hitting scum.
CSPVG
Headless
Registered: Jan 2013
From South Africa
Posted August 05, 2015
I had no reason whatsoever, it was merely an RVS vote. I voted for you in post #6, but soon after (post #14, I think) I unvoted you and went for HijacK.
As to your suggestions, I didn't think that either JMich or trentonlf would go for the first one. As for the second one, I think it's really too early to declare anyone a lurker.
In General:
I think that adalia is being a little disingenuous when he presents my argument as me pushing for a random lynch day one. I clearly said in post #72 that what I'm really after is simply more material to work with. There's a possibility in presenting all of these things that someone says something revealing, or that there's a massive crossover in lists or some such occurrence. That would be interesting, and I think we could discuss that, and go from there.
The other thing that troubles me, is that I say (more obliquely this time, but still) in post #127 that I don't want a random lynch forced on us by a deadline. Even though he refutes that he was calling for a random lynch in his latest post, I'm a little unconvinced with his reasoning.
Yes, we'd get information from having a flip (if there is such a thing in this game, which I find likely judging from yog's reactions to no-info flips in a previous game), but does it really outweigh most likely being one townie down? It could, but all the scum could stay off the wagon or not make a 'slip' of some sort. Where would we be then?
I guess my concluding thought is actually a question to adalia: Would you be willing to be our first 'random' kill guinea pig?
As to your suggestions, I didn't think that either JMich or trentonlf would go for the first one. As for the second one, I think it's really too early to declare anyone a lurker.
In General:
I think that adalia is being a little disingenuous when he presents my argument as me pushing for a random lynch day one. I clearly said in post #72 that what I'm really after is simply more material to work with. There's a possibility in presenting all of these things that someone says something revealing, or that there's a massive crossover in lists or some such occurrence. That would be interesting, and I think we could discuss that, and go from there.
The other thing that troubles me, is that I say (more obliquely this time, but still) in post #127 that I don't want a random lynch forced on us by a deadline. Even though he refutes that he was calling for a random lynch in his latest post, I'm a little unconvinced with his reasoning.
Yes, we'd get information from having a flip (if there is such a thing in this game, which I find likely judging from yog's reactions to no-info flips in a previous game), but does it really outweigh most likely being one townie down? It could, but all the scum could stay off the wagon or not make a 'slip' of some sort. Where would we be then?
I guess my concluding thought is actually a question to adalia: Would you be willing to be our first 'random' kill guinea pig?
trentonlf
Easily amused
Registered: Apr 2014
From United States
Posted August 05, 2015
I sure hope no one is really considering a random lynch viable. If there are flips we will get info as to who they were, but that's it. All scum would have to say if we lynch a townie is "I only voted for them because we agreed to do a random lynch"
Now using votes to apply pressure on someone to gauge their reaction I understand, but voting for someone just to get a random lynch I'm not on board with.
Now using votes to apply pressure on someone to gauge their reaction I understand, but voting for someone just to get a random lynch I'm not on board with.
yogsloth
GRAAAAAAH!!!!!
Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
Posted August 05, 2015
The group’s discussions continued, now around a small cookfire. The main camp was set, but the tone of the adventurers was still largely one of hushed camaraderie. Clearly, the murderers were blending in well. There were only the first slight hints of accusations on the minds of the party.
Suddenly, a white moth appeared – fluttering in a breeze only it could feel; it came to light on jutting stone in the center of the group.
“I have been sent by yoglsoth!” it squeaked. “He reminds you that your time is short, and your task must begin! Two of you have slain poor Bobo, and the killers must be found to ensure the success of the quest! You must hurry!”
A puzzled hush fell upon the group.
“Uh… did you just say two of us?” asked QuadrAlien.
“Ah… er, I don’t think…. Possibly I did. It’s an estimate. What of it?” snapped the moth in an indignant squeak.
“Did you seriously just tell us there were two scum? Did you really just blow it?” asked Lifthrasil, throwing his hands in the air. “That doesn’t even make sense! Out of thirteen?”
JMich slowly shook his head. “Worst wizard. Ever.”
The moth seemed taken aback, as much as moths can be seen to be taken aback. “Oh, ah, two? No. No! Five! Five of you have slain the poor hobbit! You must…
“Actually!” shouted Bookwyrm, waving his hands, “Five is just as unlikely as two, perhaps more so…” He quickly whipped an abacus out of his rucksack. “… that would make 5/13 = just over 38% scum, which is highly unlikely for several reasons, all of which I can explain. If you analyze the permutations…” A swift slap from adaliabooks sent the instrument flying and hushed his mouth.
“That checks out,” added Leonard03. He tapped his digital watch. “Has a calculator on it.”
“Well I never… you imbecilic… of all the moronic… would you… would you just… GET TO WORK!” sputtered the moth, before flying off in an angry huff.
“What a tool,” opined flubbucket.
_____
OFFICIAL “48 HOURS” VOTE COUNT
adailabooks – 1 (Leondard03)
dedoporno – 1 (QuadrAlien)
bler144 -1 (Lifthrasil)
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch
Nobody is in much danger
There is not yet a deadline.
_____
Suddenly, a white moth appeared – fluttering in a breeze only it could feel; it came to light on jutting stone in the center of the group.
“I have been sent by yoglsoth!” it squeaked. “He reminds you that your time is short, and your task must begin! Two of you have slain poor Bobo, and the killers must be found to ensure the success of the quest! You must hurry!”
A puzzled hush fell upon the group.
“Uh… did you just say two of us?” asked QuadrAlien.
“Ah… er, I don’t think…. Possibly I did. It’s an estimate. What of it?” snapped the moth in an indignant squeak.
“Did you seriously just tell us there were two scum? Did you really just blow it?” asked Lifthrasil, throwing his hands in the air. “That doesn’t even make sense! Out of thirteen?”
JMich slowly shook his head. “Worst wizard. Ever.”
The moth seemed taken aback, as much as moths can be seen to be taken aback. “Oh, ah, two? No. No! Five! Five of you have slain the poor hobbit! You must…
“Actually!” shouted Bookwyrm, waving his hands, “Five is just as unlikely as two, perhaps more so…” He quickly whipped an abacus out of his rucksack. “… that would make 5/13 = just over 38% scum, which is highly unlikely for several reasons, all of which I can explain. If you analyze the permutations…” A swift slap from adaliabooks sent the instrument flying and hushed his mouth.
“That checks out,” added Leonard03. He tapped his digital watch. “Has a calculator on it.”
“Well I never… you imbecilic… of all the moronic… would you… would you just… GET TO WORK!” sputtered the moth, before flying off in an angry huff.
“What a tool,” opined flubbucket.
_____
OFFICIAL “48 HOURS” VOTE COUNT
adailabooks – 1 (Leondard03)
dedoporno – 1 (QuadrAlien)
bler144 -1 (Lifthrasil)
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch
Nobody is in much danger
There is not yet a deadline.
_____
HijacK
Bona fide badass
Registered: Apr 2012
From Romania
Posted August 05, 2015
Random lynching sounds like a terrible joke to me. It's a joke, right? Because the whole thing sounds fishy. We managed to go without this random picking of a target according to what our stomach is saying for about 28 games, or so I assume. Why fix something that ain't broken?
Or "I did not vote because I knew it was a bad idea." There lots of ways to twist this thing around and gain town credit. I do not think it is a good idea.
Or "I did not vote because I knew it was a bad idea." There lots of ways to twist this thing around and gain town credit. I do not think it is a good idea.
bler144
μαϊμού
Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
Posted August 05, 2015
....
“Actually!” shouted Bookwyrm, waving his hands, “Five is just as unlikely as two, perhaps more so…” He quickly whipped an abacus out of his rucksack. “… that would make 5/13 = just over 38% scum, which is highly unlikely for several reasons, all of which I can explain. If you analyze the permutations…” A swift slap from adaliabooks sent the instrument flying and hushed his mouth.
I also think I might have broken my toe. Side note. Fortunately not my typing toe. So other than some time getting it x-rayed and likely heading home sooner than expected, shouldn't impede my verbosity. (Assembled crowd begins to weep softly)
As an observation, while many of us have been quite chatty, I think we're sitting on three 2-line posts from QA, no? Though he does get bonus points for identifying dedo's image while the rest of us were on a side-discussion harping about resolution.
@JMich - ah, I missed that. I was a bit dazed by the end of last game - esp. that flurry of posts that came in in the immediate post-game I probably only read half.
Bookwyrm627
ADD Jumping Bean
Registered: Nov 2013
From United States
trentonlf
Easily amused
Registered: Apr 2014
From United States
adaliabooks
"Vell, Zaphod's just zis guy, you know?"
Registered: Jun 2013
From United Kingdom
Posted August 05, 2015
The other thing that troubles me, is that I say (more obliquely this time, but still) in post #127 that I don't want a random lynch forced on us by a deadline. Even though he refutes that he was calling for a random lynch in his latest post, I'm a little unconvinced with his reasoning.
Yes, we'd get information from having a flip (if there is such a thing in this game, which I find likely judging from yog's reactions to no-info flips in a previous game), but does it really outweigh most likely being one townie down? It could, but all the scum could stay off the wagon or not make a 'slip' of some sort. Where would we be then?
I guess my concluding thought is actually a question to adalia: Would you be willing to be our first 'random' kill guinea pig?
Scum can stay off the wagon or jump on the wagon with any reason they like in a non random lynch, it's how they go about doing so that is important. How much was gained from Bookwyrm's wagon last game? Or AFP's the one before? The data is the data, what we do with it is another matter.
As for you final question; while having skipped the last game I'd rather not go out day 1 in this one, yes I am willing to be the first lynch. I'd like to think I'm a decent player, but I think a flip and a confirmed townie and the wagon presented is probably more useful than my presence.
Now using votes to apply pressure on someone to gauge their reaction I understand, but voting for someone just to get a random lynch I'm not on board with.
Also, look at that. Four responses and some discussion and conversation stimulated. Even if the idea may not be perfect, at least it's getting people talking.
HijacK
Bona fide badass
Registered: Apr 2012
From Romania
Posted August 05, 2015
Irrelevant to the discussion at hand. You're trying to put a nice spin on your idea and look like a good guy, but bottom line is that your ultimate goal is proposing this wasn't just discussion, thus the argument that it stimulates one is not one for which I give you credit.
Bookwyrm627
ADD Jumping Bean
Registered: Nov 2013
From United States
Posted August 05, 2015
Adalia's post 135 gave me the jumping off point for this. I haven't counted anything after that in this analysis because it didn't exist yet (Dedo added something by the time I finished). I didn't post this when I first wrote it because I wanted to see where Adalia's idea went (if anywhere), so I restricted myself to asking about CSPVG's initial RVS vote on me (Post 136).
-----
While I think Adalia's suggestion that we start looking for someone to lynch has some merit, I don't like just randomly selecting a player. Dedo has covered the basic problem with it (doesn't give us much more than a dead player). That player is confirmed, but they are also dead.
Therefore, I suppose we could look at lynching a lurker (cue protestations about how lurking doesn't indicate alignment). I went back over the thread and pulled together a list of the posts from each player that I think have contributed to the advancement of the game in a more direct fashion, to try and avoid just counting number of posts when determining lurking. Even one helpful sentence in a wall of text was enough to add that post to this list. However, only one "point" was awarded per post, regardless of how many different useful bits are in the post.
So fair warning: this list is going to be fantastically arbitrary. Please stop and read that B/I/U warning again. One post may get credit for something another post didn't, even though the second post might have also addressed the thing that gave the first post credit.
A (-) after a post means I think that post detracted some (primarily by shutting down a possible avenue of discussion), and score is x/y where x does not include the (-) while y does. Question mark means I wasn't sure if I wanted to include the post, and I give it maybe half a point.
Hijack scores 3.5/2.5. Post: 13?, 16, 19, 23, 92 (-)
Lifthrasil scores 3. Post: 30, 56, 77
JMich scores 1/0. Post: 58, 64 (-)
CSPVG scores 3.5. Post: 12 (asks Hijack for 3 scummiest when only 6 players have checked in), 14?, 52, 72
adaliabooks scores 3. Post: 80, 95, 135
Sage103082 scores 0. Post:
flubbucket scores 1. Post: 102
Bookwyrm627 scores 3. Post: 62, 83, 134
Leonard03 scores 1. Post: 104
QuadrAlien scores 0. Post:
dedoporno scores 1. Post: 49, 91 -> (Didn't deny he was scum. ;) )
bler144 scores 5. Post: 18, 20, 46, 66, 114
trentonlf scores 1/0. Post: 57, 84 (-)
So, judging by this list, neither Sage nor QuadrAlien seem to have contributed anything new to the game thus far. If one uses the (minus), then the pool of zero scores expands to include JMich and Trent.
Hopefully, this can be a jumping off point if we discuss who has and hasn't been helping. Sadly, I'm not sure if there is any more new data to be gleaned for someone to upgrade their "helpfulness level", without dipping back into roles/PMs.
-----
Alternatively, some of CSPVG's comments have pinged my radar, and JMich's method of displaying his (unsurprising) distaste for speculating at this stage pinged my radar.
-----
While I think Adalia's suggestion that we start looking for someone to lynch has some merit, I don't like just randomly selecting a player. Dedo has covered the basic problem with it (doesn't give us much more than a dead player). That player is confirmed, but they are also dead.
Therefore, I suppose we could look at lynching a lurker (cue protestations about how lurking doesn't indicate alignment). I went back over the thread and pulled together a list of the posts from each player that I think have contributed to the advancement of the game in a more direct fashion, to try and avoid just counting number of posts when determining lurking. Even one helpful sentence in a wall of text was enough to add that post to this list. However, only one "point" was awarded per post, regardless of how many different useful bits are in the post.
So fair warning: this list is going to be fantastically arbitrary. Please stop and read that B/I/U warning again. One post may get credit for something another post didn't, even though the second post might have also addressed the thing that gave the first post credit.
A (-) after a post means I think that post detracted some (primarily by shutting down a possible avenue of discussion), and score is x/y where x does not include the (-) while y does. Question mark means I wasn't sure if I wanted to include the post, and I give it maybe half a point.
Hijack scores 3.5/2.5. Post: 13?, 16, 19, 23, 92 (-)
Lifthrasil scores 3. Post: 30, 56, 77
JMich scores 1/0. Post: 58, 64 (-)
CSPVG scores 3.5. Post: 12 (asks Hijack for 3 scummiest when only 6 players have checked in), 14?, 52, 72
adaliabooks scores 3. Post: 80, 95, 135
Sage103082 scores 0. Post:
flubbucket scores 1. Post: 102
Bookwyrm627 scores 3. Post: 62, 83, 134
Leonard03 scores 1. Post: 104
QuadrAlien scores 0. Post:
dedoporno scores 1. Post: 49, 91 -> (Didn't deny he was scum. ;) )
bler144 scores 5. Post: 18, 20, 46, 66, 114
trentonlf scores 1/0. Post: 57, 84 (-)
So, judging by this list, neither Sage nor QuadrAlien seem to have contributed anything new to the game thus far. If one uses the (minus), then the pool of zero scores expands to include JMich and Trent.
Hopefully, this can be a jumping off point if we discuss who has and hasn't been helping. Sadly, I'm not sure if there is any more new data to be gleaned for someone to upgrade their "helpfulness level", without dipping back into roles/PMs.
-----
Alternatively, some of CSPVG's comments have pinged my radar, and JMich's method of displaying his (unsurprising) distaste for speculating at this stage pinged my radar.
bler144
μαϊμού
Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
JMich
A Horrible Human Person. If you need me, chat.
Registered: Apr 2011
From Greece
Posted August 05, 2015
Now, do you really expect me to believe that we do not have people capable of wagon analysis in the group? Or do you want us to believe that no data is better than data, like trentonlf was going that no claim is better than a claim? Misguided beliefs or deflection attempt?