"Confirmed" Town is just that, confirmed. But only for the moment. That's why the quotation marks. Once Night comes around, they are no longer confirmed.

I see...

Guessing what? CL knows perfectly well that Bookwyrm didn't hit a cultist. And CL is the only one who knows if Bookwyrm hit CL. (Unless Cult has Daychat, I suppose.)

So it's better to keep CL guessing as to who Bookwyrm knows is Town?

'Twas confirmation. I felt he was playing anti-Town. I voted for him. A little bit later he voted himself. Not a pro-town move.

Thank you.

Perhaps you could try not posting one minute before me.....;)

Agent, humor me for a moment and please tell the class how "Follow the Cop" works.

And the thread dies. Boom, headshot.

Agent is probably at work. Anyone else that thinks I should share my target from last night, feel free to jump in and answer the question I posed to Agent in my previous post (394).

FTFY ;-)

Confirmed long term yes. But again we're still early in the game, and for one day I don't mind making assumptions. I'm biased so here are my assumptions:

I don't feel bad, for just today, assuming Bookwyrm really is the deprogrammer. Thereby I'd like to know the townie he found last night. I also don't mind assuming cult wouldn't have wasted their conversion on Dessimu last night (though they'd be silly not to convert him in the next day or two - sorry Dess!).

So with myself there's a voting block I feel really strongly about for today. Other assumptions - right now we're at a really unique point in mafia games - we can get a really good idea of who, for the moment, is town. We can really "pare down" the potential lynch candidates for today.

Come LATER days, that's going to get harder and harder which is why it's very important to do now. So, here's my "no vote" list for today: Me (LOL), Dessimu, Bookwyrm, Bookwyrm's townie.

Ironically, as time goes on (ESPECIALLY without a better confirm on Wyrm) that list will become my MOST suspected list because cult CAN'T let known townies persist.

Vote flubb for consistently trying to obscure the value of learning a short term townie block by trying to equate it to what's going to happen in later days.

Still worry about drealmer and I will RADICALLY alter my view on Bookwyrm if I think he's using this deprogrammer "role" more as protection / manipulation than to help town.

I will take that as a compliment.

So we are now likely at 8/2 or 7/3 in town vs. cult. My guess is the CL was on RWarehall's wagon. Of the other votes, Ixam seems town (or at least seemed town yesterday) and hopefully one of our two new players did not draw CL, although it's possible.


You could be onto something. The most likely candidates then would be Agent, drealmer, JMich, and flubbucket.

Some interesting ideas are floating around, and they're over my head.

*Considers looking for the station's gravity control and shutting it off. Maybe then I could float up and grab one*

If you can guarantee I visited a townie last night, I'll be happy to tell you who it was.

Please do share those ideas when and if you finally catch them.

Nope, I was shown I was wrong about RW, and so have to shift my views, obviously.

Your quoting of me and saying how I've changed...ummm, so? Information has been obtained and my view has altered. You can't damn me for having changing thoughts from one point in the game to another, it doesn't mean I've changed sides, it means my view has shifted. The problem here is that no one else is sharing their thoughts enough, just because I am being open with mine and so you can see every bit of nuance from moment to moment (that is GOOD, that is TOWN, imo) doesn't mean I'm bad. If everyone where sharing more of their thoughts we'd be able to pick through the ones that seem genuine (mine are genuine) and those that seem fabricated.

That's because you'd been lurking/had just minimal participation, were called on it (by me maybe?), started to talk more so you weren't seen as lurking, and got caught as scum. Hence why I'm trying to get you to participate more here, and I'm getting a similar read on you this game as that game.

I agree you using the vig. shot was a good call with it being a cult game + how well you play scum (if I were CL you'd have been a top recruit for me.) I would have used it on your top suspect on RW's wagon though, pretty sure the CL was there somewhere (just because it's logical.) Babark was an okay choice because he did seem a little wishy-washy and I was pretty certain he wasn't a PR.

RW voting himself after that just re-emphasizes that it was the turning point, RW saw it, and figured he'd help it along (because at that point if the wagon fails, whatever forms next is weaker because it is deadline-motivated and by default secondary to the one that was already forming. I agree that it is anti-town in some ways, but that close the deadline, it also gives us a bit stronger of a wagon, as weak as wagon-analysis is in this game, it's still something, and RW saw it is meaningful, certainly.) If I were a cultist, I'd have waited until that exact point, knowing it would very possibly "send it over the edge" (regardless of the self-vote after or not.) It's just another tick in my agent suspicion, and it's added up to enough for me to be comfortable voting him. I don't have anything else better to go on.

I have a bit of time now to post something more, but I don't have anything important or very new to say.

As per special rules about DP, fact that only Babark died tonight, Bookwyrm must have deprogrammed simple town player. For us to draw better conclusions, we would have to know not only Bookwyrm's target, but also what response he got after the night ended. However, knowing those two things publicly would put CL into much better position, for (s)he would be able to plan recruitment actions better. We don't want that, we don't need that.

And I feel like I am babbling just because I have time.

Current list of living players with info we know about:

1. JMich
2. flubbucket
3. Bookwyrm627 :: believed to be deprogrammer
4. Dessimu :: vigilante, still town
5. agentcarr16
6. drealmer7
7. cristigale
8. Fantasysci5
9. docbear1975
10. Ixamyakxim

For me and for the deprogrammer pool of suspects is the biggest - 8 players. For any other town player (if you believe me and Bookwyrm (you should)) - you have 7 suspects. So better judgement falls to you. What else we know? There logically should be two enemy players: one CL and one cultist. Any other possibility is only a possibility and mostly a distraction.

That said, I think everyone should think things over, read whatever posts, follow any hunches. And choose not one, not three, but first of all - two suspects. I will say no more here.

2 top suspects, at this point are:

agent
Ix

Uh, did we read the same self-vote reasoning from RW? Like, at all? Because most of what I saw was along the lines of "FTSIQ", with "no one is listening" sprinkled on top.

I didn't see anything about him doing it to help with wagon analysis or because his wagon would be better than someone else's wagon. The closest he came to that was "maybe once I'm dead, you people will actually consider that my plan came from a townie". I like the plan, but I'm not fond of the suicide.

Let me quote some OP for you: I'm not providing details of what I DID get at Dawn; you'll just have to wonder.

I was rather surprised by this line from docbear:
because that is my mental suspicion list, albeit for different reasons.