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General discussionThe COVID-19 thread(1039 posts) (1039 posts) 
(1039 posts) 
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This is my favourite topic
Posted March 14, 2020
Some graphs about the evolution of COVID-19 in Italy (updated 13 March).
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Posted March 14, 2020
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kai2: instead of containment, moving to a strategey of slowing the virus spread through the population
They don't seem to intend to actually do anything that would slow the spread...last time I checked they didn't even want to ban mass audiences at football matches, based on some bizarre reasoning that people could also catch the virus when watching football matches on tv in pubs (restricting that as well is apparently unthinkable). The likely result will be a rapid rise of cases in a short time which will overwhelm the health care system.
Post edited March 14, 2020 by morolf
Posted March 14, 2020
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kai2: instead of containment, moving to a strategey of slowing the virus spread through the population
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morolf: They don't seem to intend to actually do anything that would slow the spread...last time I checked they didn't even want to ban mass audiences at football matches, based on some bizarre reasoning that people could also catch the virus when watching football matches on tv in pubs (restricting that as well is apparently unthinkable). The likely result will be a rapid rise of cases in a short time which will overwhelm the health care system.
All I can say is their stated plan is to slow the virus. Whether they are actually doing that...?

The biggest problem with their strategy IMHO is something I added above after posting: the biggest problem with the "herd immunity" question regarding COVID-19 is that SARS studies 10 years ago showed that immunity did develop after recovery, but... it wasn't long-term. With COVID-19's relationship to SARS, any immunity might be too short-term for "herd immunity" to be a thing

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160

[i]Does an infection make people immune to the virus?

Whether patients develop antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 infection that will protect them against future infections is still a mystery. Surveys of SARS patients around five or 10 years after their recovery suggest that the coronavirus antibodies don’t persist for very long, Gralinski says. “They found either very low levels or no antibodies that were able to recognize SARS proteins.”

However, for the new coronavirus, “we would expect some immunity, at least in the short term,” she says. [/i]
Post edited March 14, 2020 by kai2
Posted March 14, 2020
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fronzelneekburm:
Hi, just wanna ask if you could link the source for that WHO quote?
Posted March 14, 2020
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kai2: Whether patients develop antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 infection that will protect them against future infections is still a mystery. Surveys of SARS patients around five or 10 years after their recovery suggest that the coronavirus antibodies don’t persist for very long, Gralinski says. “They found either very low levels or no antibodies that were able to recognize SARS proteins.”

However, for the new coronavirus, “we would expect some immunity, at least in the short term,” she says. [/i]
Seems kind of stupid to base one's "strategy" on assumptions which are at best unproven, and could in fact be totally wrong. Shockingly irresponsible approach by Johnson's government imo.
Posted March 14, 2020
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fronzelneekburm:
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KasperHviid: Hi, just wanna ask if you could link the source for that WHO quote?
Don't you have google in Denmark?

Just google "WHO Europe epicenter" and you'll have a wide selection of news sources.

Here you can hear it directly from the source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YSS5vlBRt8
Posted March 14, 2020
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kai2: Whether patients develop antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 infection that will protect them against future infections is still a mystery. Surveys of SARS patients around five or 10 years after their recovery suggest that the coronavirus antibodies don’t persist for very long, Gralinski says. “They found either very low levels or no antibodies that were able to recognize SARS proteins.”

However, for the new coronavirus, “we would expect some immunity, at least in the short term,” she says. [/i]
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morolf: Seems kind of stupid to base one's "strategy" on assumptions which are at best unproven, and could in fact be totally wrong. Shockingly irresponsible approach by Johnson's government imo.
Well, although "herd immunity" is getting the most press, I don't think it is the main strategy (I may be wrong). The main strategy is simply slowing the virus' spread so that the medical community can effectively deal with a steady stream of patients over time instead of a deluge of patients all-at-once.

With Italy, I think everyone saw containment didn't work, so they're forced to try other things.

One Italian town (Codogno?) -- one of the first to have COVID-19 cases -- has indeed slowed the spread by simply keeping people home. They gave up on containment awhile ago. New cases there have seemingly been relatively "easily" dealt with.

So, replicating that seems to be the hope.
Post edited March 14, 2020 by kai2
Posted March 14, 2020
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dr.schliemann: This virus, like the others of the Coronaviridae family, seems to be able to mutate very quickly. A study tracked back the origin of the infection present in Italy thanks to genome analyses and it proved that the virus probably came from southern Germany because the italian and german viruses genomes share some mutations not present in the chinese strain.
However, after the first infection, the immunity system should be able to identify the virus, at least to certain extent, even in case of mutation: that's what happens with the seasonal flu. In other words supposition of Johnson's scientific advisor is probably that, after a cycle of contagion, SARS-CoV-2 could become similar to the seasonal influenza or wishfully vanish as previously happened to the first SARS-CoV.
I agree that there seems to be a lot of assumptions and speculations in this strategy and I think it's very hard to tell what's going to happen.
I've turned this all in my mind and given all the variants involved, this 'great idea' is like playing apprentice sorcerer, which I find greatly disturbing if not criminally insane. That's the kind of thing that's most likely to keep me up because I've never liked the idea of someone playing Russian roulette with my life and countless others.

All Europeans/US/Canadians people etc living here who know of this, probably are too in a very rattled frame of mind...
Posted March 14, 2020
low rated
Some posts in this thread appear to be more toxic than the actual virus. Read and believe at your own peril. Hint: if there are no credible sources, it is probably a lie.
Posted March 14, 2020
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kai2: Well, although "herd immunity" is getting the most press, I don't think it is the main strategy (I may be wrong). The main strategy is simply slowing the virus' spread so that the medical community can effectively deal with a steady stream of patients over time instead of a deluge of patients all-at-once.

With Italy, I think everyone saw containment didn't work, so they're forced to try other things.

One Italian town (Codogno?) -- one of the first to have COVID-19 cases -- has indeed slowed the spread by simply keeping people home. They gave up on containment awhile ago. New cases there have seemingly been relatively "easily" dealt with.
The way they are 'reasoning' with this, is that they just want to let it spread and unless I stand corrected, you'd need a 60% rate of population infection to get that 'herd immunity'. As for them to let it slowly spread, without any kind of measure to slow the spread,l good luck to them imposing speed limit on that virus. This is really doing my head in right now!

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Carradice: Some posts in this thread appear to be more toxic than the actual virus. Read and believe at your own peril. Hint: if there are no credible sources, it is probably a lie.
Should you be referring to that 'herding' stuff being a lie, then please do contact all the UK TV/Online and paper 'medias' happily relaying that lie so that they can stop doing so.
Post edited March 14, 2020 by Flyingfluffypiglet
Posted March 14, 2020
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morolf: Seems kind of stupid to base one's "strategy" on assumptions which are at best unproven, and could in fact be totally wrong. Shockingly irresponsible approach by Johnson's government imo.
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kai2: Well, although "herd immunity" is getting the most press, I don't think it is the main strategy (I may be wrong). The main strategy is simply slowing the virus' spread so that the medical community can effectively deal with a steady stream of patients over time instead of a deluge of patients all-at-once.

With Italy, I think everyone saw containment didn't work, so they're forced to try other things.
What are they doing to slow it down because it looks like not a lot.

The only other explanation for the poor actions in the UK is that Boris Johnson is a secret disciple of NURGLE !
Posted March 14, 2020
Shutdown in my state. The virus stays in the air for around 3 hours and on surfaces for 9 days!

The problem is not what we know but rather what we don''t. Is this here to stay?

A vicious cycle has already been set in motion. If not the disease then bankruptcy shall kill.
Post edited March 14, 2020 by Lionel212008
Posted March 14, 2020
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kai2: Well, although "herd immunity" is getting the most press, I don't think it is the main strategy (I may be wrong). The main strategy is simply slowing the virus' spread so that the medical community can effectively deal with a steady stream of patients over time instead of a deluge of patients all-at-once.

With Italy, I think everyone saw containment didn't work, so they're forced to try other things.
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Spectre: What are they doing to slow it down because it looks like not a lot.

The only other explanation for the poor actions in the UK is that Boris Johnson is a secret disciple of NURGLE !
Again, I am not arguing for or against Johnson's strategy.

Here's a CNN article on the UK situation:

UK coronavirus response: What does Britain know that Europe doesn't?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uk-coronavirus-response-what-does-britain-know-that-europe-doesnt/ar-BB119jXF
Post edited March 14, 2020 by kai2
Posted March 14, 2020
low rated
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dr.schliemann: This virus, like the others of the Coronaviridae family, seems to be able to mutate very quickly. A study tracked back the origin of the infection present in Italy thanks to genome analyses and it proved that the virus probably came from southern Germany because the italian and german viruses genomes share some mutations not present in the chinese strain.
However, after the first infection, the immunity system should be able to identify the virus, at least to certain extent, even in case of mutation: that's what happens with the seasonal flu. In other words supposition of Johnson's scientific advisor is probably that, after a cycle of contagion, SARS-CoV-2 could become similar to the seasonal influenza or wishfully vanish as previously happened to the first SARS-CoV.
I agree that there seems to be a lot of assumptions and speculations in this strategy and I think it's very hard to tell what's going to happen.
avatar
Flyingfluffypiglet: I've turned this all in my mind and given all the variants involved, this 'great idea' is like playing apprentice sorcerer, which I find greatly disturbing if not criminally insane. That's the kind of thing that's most likely to keep me up because I've never liked the idea of someone playing Russian roulette with my life and countless others.

All Europeans/US/Canadians people etc living here who know of this, probably are too in a very rattled frame of mind...
When you have policies that promote mass migration, and you have little or no preparedness for dealing with infectious disease, catastrophic results are a certainty, so there's plenty of blame to go around. Johnson's crime is in saying what others are only thinking. *All* of the Western "leaders" are profoundly incompetent, and should be rounded up and sent to The Hague, IMO.
Posted March 14, 2020
There do not appear to be many cases here and they are all imports.

Stay safe all and maybe the heat does help after all.
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionThe COVID-19 thread(1039 posts) (1039 posts) 
(1039 posts)