Very high likelihood he as Hitler knows who his buddies are at this stage of the game. If he shoots a fascist, it's either betraying Joe, or someone that he has no idea is a fascist.

It is my first game, and playing it safe, I decided to pick the most favorable option at the time, which leaned towards Lift. Add to that that some of you wanted the game to speed up, so I thought if nobody had much of a thing against Lift, things should be fine.

That there's actually a probability that Lift isn't all that trustworthy and therefore you aren't scum, though I hope that's not the case here and that what happened is Liberal Lift confirming you as Fascist and ZFR buddying up to him by clearing his reputation, and therefore gaining more trust across the board. He put me in an interesting scenario where he can get away with creating conflict AND get rid of a liberal, preferably two in one shot thanks to my confirmation of blotunga.

Sounds like a solid plan. In the next government it doesn't matter whether there are Fascists involved, as long as we avoid a Hitler Chancellorship. It's going to be FFF anyhow, since the last L was buried (even if someone chooses to believe Pooka, he'd have to assume that you buried that L). So trent can either choose me, then we circle the Presidency back to me and I choose you as Chancellor and we enact the last L. If trent is Fascist after all and shoots one of us, the next Liberal presidency candidate makes the surviving one of us Chancellor and we still win. Although for that we both would have to stay eligible.

So, ideal scenario: trent+me (since I'm proven non-Hitler), kill Joe, then me+ZFR to bring home the last L.
Alternate scenario (if trent is L): trent+Scene (doesn't matter if Scene is Fascist), kill Joe, then me+ZFR.
Alternate scenario (if trent is F): trent+Scene, kill one of ZFR or me, then SPF+(the surviving of ZFR or me)

The alternate scenario has the drawback that we don't know SPF's alignment for sure. But it has the advantage that, if trent is F, him shooting one of us doesn't prevent us from winning. If he shoots me, SPF just selects you as Chancellor. If he shoots you, SPF selects me. The first one seems safer and more straightforward to me if the majority agrees on it. The second one would work too and it would guard against the trent=Fascist possibility, but it banks on SPF being liberal. But if trent turns out to be Fascist, SPF is likely liberal by pure numbers (there are only three Fascists and one Hitler in the game, after all). I'm fine with either plan.

I'm fine with either. The alternate scenarios have the additional disadvantage that we lose if scene is Hitler, but I see it extremely unlikely. He could be fascist; but trent drawing FFF makes it irrelevant.

At this stage I trust trent. As I said, he cannot be vanilla scum.
Can he be Hitler? When Joe selected him was it a last attempt to elect Hitler? No. If that was so, Joe at least would have voted YES. Or any of the fascists. Or trent himself. After all there was some doubt that I'd be voting YES, why didn't any of the fascists try to grab a win? Even if caught they would have plausible deniability.

So here is my new theorem on why I think trent can't be Hitler: He voted NO to Joe+him. And Joe voted NO for Joe+him.
I'm pretty sure if anyone trent!Hitler would vote YES. He had the perfect reason to do so. There was some doubt about me voting YES and having the government pass. And even if caught he had the perfect excuse: I voted YES because I was the chancellor.
Ditto for Joe. If trent was Hitler, Joe would have voted YES. On the off-chance reason it passes. And becuase he too could do it safely; there was no danger for him outing himself.

So trent can't be Hitler. And he can't be vanilla scum. ergo he's liberal.

Thoughts? With that in mind, do you think it's a good idea to go the safe "ideal" route? Without relying on scene nor SPF?

Hopefully Blotunga is Hitler and the game can end , but if he’s not I’ll be straight up and tell you if I’m elected and a fascist policy passes I’m shooting Pooka. As I said I find it hard to believe ZFR is a fascist with how he’s been playing so Pooka is for sure a fascist in my eyes. I know ZFR has no misgivings about Lift and Joe but I do. We know Lift isn’t Hitler, but we also don’t know if he’s Liberal. If Lift had not passed that fourth L policy I would say he was more than likely fascist because I lean toward believing Joe more than I do Lift. So I’m not taking a chance and shooting Joe when I’m more certain of Pooka being a fascist.

I will not select Joe or Lift for chancellor and if a fascist policy is passed I will shoot Pooka because a dead fascist is what’s needed.

OK. Fair enough, I'm happy with Pooka being shot. He's100% confirmed fascist, and though we don't get to shoot Hitler, this is good too.

This I completely disagree with however.

Whom would you choose as chancellor? Would you risk the fact that that person could be Hitler?
Lift is guaranteed non-Hitler. The game would have ended when I chose him otherwise.

So why don't you select Lift. Even if you don't trust him he's a safe choice. And you won't be passing liberal policies anyway; there are none left.

I agree that trent looks quite liberal. So probably the 'ideal' route is indeed safe and would be our best choice. If trent decides to play along, after all. However, in the end it's up to trent and if he prefers the alternate route, we take that.

@trent: I'm fine with you not trusting me. But when nominating, consider that it doesn't really matter for the next government if I'm Fascist or not. As far as we know the last L was buried. That means you are going to draw FFF. That again means, as long as your Chancellor isn't Hitler, his alignment won't change the outcome.

Welp. So at this rate, my not being Hitler doesn't really stand to save me from a shooting. I would've been fine being barred from government.

That's fine. You want to waste your shot on me, go ahead. Just know that your "definitely not Hitler" list is down yet again to a single person: Lift. He can't be chancellor in both the next government and the last. The chance of a Hitler election is high, and with the second "definitely not Hitler" choice eliminated, good luck with a liberal win. Seriously.

So your defense is not "Why would you shoot a Liberal and bring Fascist that much closer to winning" but instead "Hey I'm not Hitler you need me as a non Hitler selection". That all but confirms it for me that you're a Fascist and ZFR is more than likely Liberal, so you are not even needed as a non Hitler option.

I'd use that defense if it wasn't an obvious one and if he wasn't so keen on insisting that I'm the fascist one. Of course I'm a liberal, and of course shooting me means the fascists are much closer to winning. The one thing I do have going for me in terms of actual reality is that I'm not Hitler. Now the rest of you are stuck between me as the fascist or ZFR. Of course each one of us would use that defense, it's no brainer.

Why are you even intent on getting rid of me anyway? And if you get rid of me, will you go after blotunga as well, bringing the liberals down by two? The last government, if fascist, will have all the leverage it needs to win through Hitler by the four fascist votes and one vote from a liberal. Hitler is literally right there, ZFR has done a pretty swell job getting me into this bind. Perhaps you're a fascist, and it's in your interest to get ZFR to power? That would explain it, then again, you're a hard read to begin with.

Just stop and think about it. Not only do you finish off your second Not Hitler choice, you also put blotunga and myself in further jeopardy than we already are - in turn, leading to a liberal loss.

ZFR already shot Blotunga, and by how you're trying to protect Blotunga so much even now makes me think ZFR made the right choice.

An FFF gets passed next putting your score at 5. At this stage non-Hitler fascist is just as bad as Hitler.

Wait what. I thought zeo needed to confirm this before we can even do anything - like everything else here. Ack, well, here we go. Blotunga's a goner, nice. Congrats, fascists. You got rid of a liberal.

To everyone else, you'll see when zeo confirms him NOT Hitler as the game continues on. If you don't want a fascist win, then please don't vote any trent government into power, and skip governments until SPF becomes president, then shoot ZFR. That will lead to an executed fascist, and getting our chances up for the 5th L.

Since all they have to do is NOT ask for a veto... to win... or use an F with an L/F passed to them.

Either way, it's now heavily in Fascist's favor if they are either president or chancellor.

As i've said before. Even if everyone was Liberal, Fascist policies would end up being put down due to RNG.

If you think that will work.

Let's look at the odds. I think i got the math figured out now.

5F 4L on board, so 6F and 2L are left. This gives us 16 possible states after the reshuffle.

FFF - 10/16 = 62.50%
FFL - 5/16 = 31.25%
FLL - 1/16 = 6.25%

37.5% to draw an L (or two).

Very. Bad. Maths.

With 6F 2L, chances of F F F are

6C3 / 8C3 = 20 / 56 = 35% (rounded)