I... don't know.

I wasn't looking at adalia as a very possible "hidden fascist ace up their sleeve" mainly because he wasn't in a good positon to help them much: he's neither soon to be in government (like Kusu or Lift) nor he really gets to be a hero after Brasas fails (like RW). You never know though of course. What I was more concerned about was dedo double-bluffing, counting on the fact that we mistrust him and elect adalia.

But now I'm not sure. First he became "friendly" to me, which I don't trust (and last game when he was friendly, he was scum), and second his insistence to point to scene as Hitler based on what I think is a stretched reason.
I wanted to see how Brasas reacts to that, and lo and behold he's said he thinks adalia is a fascist. Both overdoing the distancing? Both meaning scene to be fall guy?

I'm really not sure...

Seriously...
What did you really think was going to happen?

Just think about it based on Scene and Brasas pushing the vote to Dedo...
Of course Dedo was going to claim he drew 3F because of the 30%+ chance
And of course he was going to claim he had to pass Scene 2F so you can't blame Scene.
Scene was obviously going to claim that Dedo can be fascist without him being in on it.
And Brasas was obviously going to point out how if he gets screwed it's because Dedo set him up.

And that's what we got. They are doing everything they can to distance themselves from one another.

-----------

@Brasas Go for it! Pass the 4L for the WIFOM factor! Should give us one more extra chance not to get a bad draw. Doesn't mean that you are necessarily liberal, but hey, I'll open up to the possibility a little.

I imagine that whether they seriously consider going the 4L route instead of the 3L2F route also depends on how well placed their Secret Hitler is. They might take the chance if it's either Lift or Greek.

And for the record, I do not buy Scene as Hitler. It doesn't fit. He wouldn't have known who the rest of the fascists were with enough certainty to steer this game the way he did. Other actions don't fit it either, but I'm not going into detail as it involves strategy that might provide useful for real Hitler.

That's wishful thinking on some people's part.

I think I'm sticking to our original plan. Get to Brasas. If he enacts a F then he and dedo are 90% fascists. We have other trustful people to enact the last two L (greek and Lift).

I think I agree with this as well. Of course whatever I say, that person will be my new hidden scum buddy whether its his ZFR, me, Adalia and Blotunga like he keeps trying to claim (strangely again having the secret Hitler come so clearly out of hiding)...or how I'm buddies with Dedo, or since I'm voting for Brasas, now I'm buddies with him too. You guys should be worrying a lot, as I've found a way to have 6 of the 10 players be fascists...I'm just that good!!!

Just a word of advice Scene, next time you draw scum, don't jump around so much, it appears much more liberal (town) if it appears you are thinking things through carefully and not just flailing wildly with every random incrimination you can come up with.

Obviously, I think Adalia's chances of being a liberal are higher than Brasas, but with Greek ignoring the advice of his own guide not to distrust both the President and Chancellor when 3F is claimed to be drawn, if he isn't Hitler, some bad luck from the cards and he probably falls into following Scene blindly.

And let's face it. If Adalia is liberal, that most likely means Dedo is fascist which also means we can't count on the cards being what they say. Means the chance of a liberal policy is down to the same 64.3% that Dedo had with a 35.7% chance Brasas and the shitposting crew won't shut up for the rest of the game.

I can't be 100% sure who's fascist, but since yesterday I've realised there is reason for Dedo to pass Brasas knowing Brasas may well get 3 cards. Probability wise I'd go:

The triangle of best friends - could one of them, maybe be innocent and hood winked by the other 2? I'm not sure they agree on everything and believe each other to be 100% Lib.

RWarehall 90%
ZFR 75%
Adalia - 70%

As you said yourself the loudest voices are likely to be fascist and these 3 make the most posts and longest posts alongside Scene and Brasas.

Dedo 64% (based on odds) - but if he is fascist why wouldn't he cause a dispute with me and completely eliminate me? Plus people would maybe consider him less suspicious and shift the blame onto me perhaps. Although maybe not.

Brasas - 50% - even if Dedo is fascist, Dedo may incriminate him to essentially nominate him knowing he would likely to have poor cards, so less chance of Brasas than Dedo.

So that's 5 players and Hitler maybe a seperate player so between 1-2 of them are ofcourse liberal. If Hitler is among those players they have to be playing for the 5 Fascist policies.

We now have a chance to either clear Dedo and Brasas or incriminate them further. They will be the most confirmed players in the game if we do test both and if guilty their votes/criticism will give insight into who else is Scum.

Hey look!!! Scene knows how to pull numbers out of his behind!!! You do have a talent!

I love how you don't even attempt to think and any possibilities beyond your narrow path even though you are seemingly pretending to be looking at all possibilities...

What makes you think Dedo and Brasas are "the most confirmed players" if Brasas passes a liberal policy? They can't possibly do it for the WIFOM potential? They won't do it because otherwise they are over 96% confirmed as fascists? It's not like this hasn't been talked about before...

Your deceptive attempts at very faulty logic should be proof to everyone that are are not to be trusted.

RWarehall's right, what if dedo is Hitler and his plan in investigating Brasas as liberal is with the expectation this will get proved and then he can be elected as chancellor (once two more F policies are passed).

Remember, even if we get the 4th L policy this government after the reshuffle there is only 2 L cards out of 12, a bad shuffle could mean even with a double liberal billing we end up passing 2 F cards before we even see another L.

If either dedo or Brasas are Hitler then they can't be written off as confirmed liberal just because they passed an L policy.

I think it's safer to elect me, then even if I do get 3 F (highly unlikely unless dedo or someone else lied) and have to pass 2 F to greek we'll get another investigation unlinked to dedo.

It seems we have 2 teams right now.

ZFR+RW+Adalia

vs

Scene+Dedoporno+Brasas

So, in both cases who is the 4th fascist? And what's the chance that some people from opposite teams are trying to muddy the waters to keep our attention at them?

Because I might not be around too much over the weekend, let me snipe tonight..

I think I want to ask everyone: what's your gameplan? I see a lot of interaction but I don't really see much strategy (with the obvious exceptions)

Kindly remember it's important that Liberals can coalesce...

PS: Exception details
1 - the get to Greek quick + test Brasas alignment path forward
2 - the push for Adalia and overall confuse the gamestate as much as possible "scum swamp"

Hope you don't terribly mind but I think the play is to enlarge the field. We can discuss later ofc.

You would :)

You're waffling alot mate... I think you need to make peace with some uncertainty, and make your bets so to speak. Don't be afraid to be open about questions you have and probe everyone on what they think - Liberals are the majority afterall so with proper filtering you can get value. But focus, because it seems to me you are trying to crack the game through pure logic and math. And that won't work... you'll just burnout so to speak...

ZFR and? Oh... you mean me right? :)

So pragmatic...

As if this was the first time... when I last gave my reads I clearly said out of the 4 around null read (kusu, blotunga, dedo, adalia) I was leaning town on kusu and leaning scum on Adalia...

Hmmm... you certainly gave me an adrenaline kick...

All five of them? Might be easier to find meaning in a pigeon's entrails...

Jokes aside, Adalia has done little to make me reevaluate the working theory that he is 3rd wheel on the Fash tricycle.

Maybe? Maybe? o_0 He's given lip service to me being Liberal when I tease him about it but really... Maybe?

To be fair I think almost everyone in the game has some suspicion of me except Dedo. And the 3 you mention are faking their suspicion. They know I'm Liberal, and they understand how having been investigated I am a huge threat. If one of them gets president and gets a chance I expect I'll get the bullet. But I think we won't get to that despite the odds after the shuffle being super sucky.

And maybe by RW as well? :)
I do apologize for having missed that unlike RW you have not hammered that point.
You understand, it's hard to say where you end and RW's arm begins... ;) he's so clearly the Jim Henson to your Kermit...

How does it feel? I have a colonoscopy due as I mentioned a while ago...

I think the time for that discussion is later. There will be more data so the Hitler speculation becomes more informed.

Maybe not, but far fetched and daring plans are definitely your forte...

I think you'll notice that I qualified that as a very unlikely turn of events.

To be honest I wouldn't be investigating you, purely the fact that I drew 3 F would suggest you were probably F, so I would look to confirm someone like greek or Lift, or investigate an unknown like Blotunga or Kusu.

I think he was just afraid I'd go "name one instance where I..." ;)

But no need of that here. Brasa is my suspect list in almost all scenaeios.

How do you spot Hitler when his prime game plan is to appear liberal until forced to turn? The plan is to get to 4L where Hitler has to play as fascist if it looks like he's about to lose. We'll talk about Hitler if we get to 3F.

Look, the questions you should be asking is why did it becomes so important for Scene, all of a sudden to get his one choice of President? It was universally agreed that he should be Chancellor. What made him decide to push his point so hard? My conjecture is that since we were already at 3-0, he couldn't afford a dispute with a liberal (and also giving them an investigative power at the same time). With a fascist president, they would lie for him to maintain his cover.

And let me put it this way, with all the respect so many people have in my scum abilities, do you really think this is how I'd have played my hand as scum potentially exposing all my partners? No offensive but the straight and simple path for me would have been to lay low and let the ZFR wagon fizzle (which it would have). If necessary I would have pointed out how this limits us to Cristi as the only option to Greek. That would have been enough without sticking out too much at all. Then with Dedo, if the tide was turning, push the fact that my actions lean me slightly liberal by the fact that both Scene and I cannot both be regular fascists since that wouldn't make sense with the 2L pass. That way when I pass the fascist policy, you'd have absolutely no clue who my partners would have been. Whether I would have claimed to draw 3F or dispute Scene would have depended on my read of the table at the time.

I'm good at this game because I look at least 2 steps ahead. Before Scene even spoke up against ZFR, I was ready for it. Either no one speaks up (meaning ZFR is scum), or someone does, turned out to be Scene. It's the play from the Godfather where Vito tells Michael how whomever brokers the next meeting is the traitor. It turned out to be Tessio. In our case, it turned out to be Scene. All the dominoes flow from there...

CURRENT PROPOSED GOVERNMENT
President: Adalia the Bookkeeper (adaliabooks)
Chancellor: The Greek (greeklover)

Y'all know the drill by this point. Send in your votes.

Sucks to have to give your mate instructions this way instead of night chat, eh?