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greeklover: He isn't saying Zfr was telling the truth in a serious way. He's saying that Zfr picked the specific names not by accident, which is a premedisomething lie. He's saying that if Zfr was pissed off, he would have picked 3 random names. Myself, I completely disregard Zfr's post, I avoid so deep psychology shit.
I do see what Brasas is saying, and there is a certain logic to it.

But here's a test, pick three random players to be fascists.
I bet you picked me, ZFR and ash didn't you. Because your mind is already set up to believe that is the case.
If I asked you to pick three liberals you'd probably pick Lift, scene and Brasas because that is how your mind is currently biased.
The human mind is really shit at choosing randoms. Whether ZFR is liberal or fascist I actually tend to believe he did random number those names, because otherwise it just represents a bias.
If he didn't then the reason he chose me and RW 'randomly' is because we were on his 'side'. He would have chosen you for Hitler due to the same uncouncious bias.
I don't believe it says anything about his alignment (or of those he picked) and was just a (poor) reaction to pressure.

More telling I think is his assumption that me and Brasas were referring to him as stirring the pot. I didn't respond to his apology in case I was tunneling on you and misunderstood Brasas, but Brasas' post confirms my interpretation that he was referring to you not ZFR.

I don't trust the choice of scene as chancellor. If I'm completely wrong about you and Brasas I'm still fairly convinced scene is Fascist.


I'm not sure I agree about randomly choosing being just as good either, if that were the case we may as well all vote no and let chaos rule.
We're only looking to test someone on the basis an L isn't past (if an L is passed then it's moot), so we would never be clearing, only damning one or the other of the current 'sides'.
On that basis if Brasas is chancellor and passes an F we are left with no one who is tested and can be trusted. We can infer that me and ZFR could be trustworthy but there is no proof.
However if I am chancellor and pass an F then you can assume I was fascist all along and resume trusting you (greek) and Brasas who at least have a positive record and investigations to support them, which is a better result.
Randomly choosing Kusu or Blotunga tells us next to nothing about who else can or can't be trusted if they pass an F.

Plus I know if an L presents itself I will pass it.
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adaliabooks:
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adaliabooks:
Are you distancing yourself lately from the camp or is it my idea? Anyway your post makes sense.

I don't have any problem picking you or Zfr as chancellor.

BUT

To have any benefit from the testing someone from a "camp" strategy, we must agree in advance that if he proves fascist, we will remove all the members of the camp from future governments. If you or Zfr or ashwald turns out fascist, we will remove all three of you. This is the only way I see to gain something. Oh, and I am not accepting Scene in my camp:)
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adaliabooks: I'm not sure I agree about randomly choosing being just as good either, if that were the case we may as well all vote no and let chaos rule.
No, the chances of randomly getting a liberal policy are much worse than the chances of randomly hitting a liberal chancellor. There are at most 2 L policies left in the pile. Or even only one, if one was already buried. So 'Chaos' would be much worse than picking a chancellor at random.

But I see the picking at random only as emergency fallback solution. It would be better if a majority of us agrees on someone.
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greeklover: Are you distancing yourself lately from the camp or is it my idea? Anyway your post makes sense.

I don't have any problem picking you or Zfr as chancellor.

BUT

To have any benefit from the testing someone from a "camp" strategy, we must agree in advance that if he proves fascist, we will remove all the members of the camp from future governments. If you or Zfr or ashwald turns out fascist, we will remove all three of you. This is the only way I see to gain something. Oh, and I am not accepting Scene in my camp:)
That makes sense, I'm happy to agree to that (assuming I am made chancellor anyway).

There are some stipulations though, if Lift admits to passing two F (due to getting 3 F, I don't see him claiming to bury an L whether he might or not) then it will need to be looked at again as either Lift is not as liberal as he seems or it tells us nothing about the chancellor. Either way I'm not sure that's a reason to blacklist.
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greeklover: Are you distancing yourself lately from the camp or is it my idea? Anyway your post makes sense.

I don't have any problem picking you or Zfr as chancellor.

BUT

To have any benefit from the testing someone from a "camp" strategy, we must agree in advance that if he proves fascist, we will remove all the members of the camp from future governments. If you or Zfr or ashwald turns out fascist, we will remove all three of you. This is the only way I see to gain something. Oh, and I am not accepting Scene in my camp:)
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adaliabooks: That makes sense, I'm happy to agree to that (assuming I am made chancellor anyway).

There are some stipulations though, if Lift admits to passing two F (due to getting 3 F, I don't see him claiming to bury an L whether he might or not) then it will need to be looked at again as either Lift is not as liberal as he seems or it tells us nothing about the chancellor. Either way I'm not sure that's a reason to blacklist.
Yes. Drawing 3F obviously doesn't tell us anything about the chancellor. Let's hope I draw at least 1L.
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adaliabooks: There are some stipulations though, if Lift admits to passing two F (due to getting 3 F, I don't see him claiming to bury an L whether he might or not) then it will need to be looked at again as either Lift is not as liberal as he seems or it tells us nothing about the chancellor. Either way I'm not sure that's a reason to blacklist.
Sure, if Lift draws FFF, no one gets blacklisted. But if there is a conflict, you bet the table will be with Lift.
Before I start reading any of the new posts:

I'd like to hear from the lurkers.

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blotunga: *pokes blotunga*
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kusumahendra: *pokes kusu*
What do you guys think? Any opinions? Preferences? Do any of you want to try being a chancellor this time? Anything at all? You too dedoporno, what do you think?


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dedoporno: *pokes dedo*
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ashwald: Before I start reading any of the new posts:

I'd like to hear from the lurkers.

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kusumahendra: *pokes kusu*
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ashwald: What do you guys think? Any opinions? Preferences? Do any of you want to try being a chancellor this time? Anything at all? You too dedoporno, what do you think?

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dedoporno: *pokes dedo*
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ashwald:
Ah sorry, still trying to catch up, was traveling most of the day. Imho Lift and Brasas are the only duo that I trust mostly, having passed the 4th L. So the Lift presidency sounds good. Imho greek isn't a that bad chancellor candidate since if he is L and Lift passes him a L, we'll win. If he's Hitler or scum he will be term-locked (I don't think he's a regular scum, worst case only Hitler). The problem is whom to choose as chancellor in case of 3F and Brasas as likely president.
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greeklover: snip
Hey now. If anyone were to be throwing dice It'd have to be zeo or a mod. Certainly not a player. But I'm not against the general idea if push comes to shove.

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Brasas: Do what ZFR did, randomly draw your best buddies on one side, and the top Liberal read on the other side!

In case the dripping sarcasm isn't obvious let me double down on it:

Do what ZFR did, randomly draw the lie you want!

PS: In case anyone has forgotten I am referring to ZFR's explanation for the names in his shitpost. He said he drew them randomly... those digital dice were amazing seers.
Now that's actually a very good point against ZFR.

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Brasas: Or whoever they investigate of course. Which reminds me of another angle RW was pushing that you might analyze. Do you agree with him we should treat the investigation results as null value because of potential WIFOM?
That's only applicable if the investigators were liberals. And that's up in the air. Investigation results could be real and given with no ulterior motives or they could be lies to prop up fascists/Hitler, or they could be real but an attempt at buddying. Thus results are something to keep in mind and periodically re-examine vs the investigators' conduct throughout the game.

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Brasas: What a neat twist.
As neat as when you were doing it. ;)

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Lifthrasil: snip
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adaliabooks: snip
No there's actually merit there. I originally passed that by because I got stuck on the word "random" and like adalia says exasperated sarcasm would sound exactly like ZFR's post. But then he went and told Brasas that he actually picked greek, RW and adalia's names not simply at random, but by use of random.org.

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ZFR: I actually used random.org to get those 3 names for him (in case anyone did take those names in any way seriously). For you Brasas, since it doesn't matter what I say: more mindfucking.
It's very very unlikely that random.org would pick names that correspond to ZFR's biases so accurately. I'm now against a ZFR nomination. I'd rather take the risk that eg. one of you might not be liberal. And I formally nominate myself.
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ashwald: And I formally nominate myself.
Another one. You're not helping. Everyone nominates themselves. Sure, one self is the only one a liberal can be sure of. But it's also what a fascist would do. It is the safe play (liberals have reason to only trust themselves) and avoids creating more visible connections.

So, let me repeat that question to everybody in a clearer fashion: who, besides yourself, would you be OK with as chancellor? Brasas? I guess dedo would vote for that, if he were here. Or if you want to test someone else: whom?

Greek at least made an argument for selecting someone out of the second player block and not one of the un-aligned lurkers. That helps more than everyone else calling "Me! Me! Pick me!" Keep in mind, if everyone just shouts 'me' we will never get any majority or agreement. So if you think nominating Brasas is a bad idea, speak up and nominate someone else who isn't you.
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Lifthrasil: snip
I'm fine with nominating Brasas or Adalia. I'm against Scene or ZFR. I will not be refusing the position if it falls to me. Blotunga appears to be favoring Brasas and hasn't put himself forward (yet anyway), which is very interesting considering he considers you and Brasas the most trustworthy ones.
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Lifthrasil: snip
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ashwald: I'm fine with nominating Brasas or Adalia. I'm against Scene or ZFR. I will not be refusing the position if it falls to me. Blotunga appears to be favoring Brasas and hasn't put himself forward (yet anyway), which is very interesting considering he considers you and Brasas the most trustworthy ones.
Thanks for the input. I had hoped to nominate someone before disappearing for a day, but I actually would like to hear from dedo (he said he's busy, but would look in every day) and kusu before nominating. So it will have to wait another day, since I'm not online tomorrow. I'll look in on Monday again and then decide my nomination.
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ashwald: It's very very unlikely that random.org would pick names that correspond to ZFR's biases so accurately.
Wait a minute. Look exactly at when that post was made. I had no bias then.
http://www.gog.com/forum/general/secret_hitler_1_legend_of_the_cows/post451
RW's first post "supporting" me came after it, adalia was "linked" with our "team" even later, and my bias against greek came only very recently (around the time of his second presidency).

Back then RW was being groomed as the most likely stepping stone to a quick cycle-back-to-greek, while adalia has just replaced cristi and barely made a post or two. How could I have any bias against either of them??? The only one I was biased against was Scene.

No, if anything your statement should be "It's very very unlikely that random.org would pick names that correspond to what later would become ZFR's biases so accurately." And Brasas pointed out that I have a bias for RW and adalia and against greek and a correlation is important whether for or against. But at this point I have a bias for almost everyone. I have a bias for kusu, who Brasas said was likely the hidden Hitler, and I have a strong bias agains scene, and dedo for being on Brasas's "team". Only Lift is kind of neutral and blotunga is absent. So out of 8 people (10 players minus me and Brasas), there are 6 against who correspond to a "bias", so picking 3 from this pool is not so unlikely.

What this is is just an example of Apophenia. Whatever names random.org had picked back then would have looked somewhat "suspicious" later on. And this is from someone who does AI and data analysis for a living (and incidentally, yes I do use random.org professionally; I even mentioned it in some work related thread a year or two ago, but can't find it now; anyone remembers? Adalia, I think you were part of that discussion too).
It's like "pick a random number from 1 to 10" and then saying how can 1 be random? Or 10? Or 5 which is just in the middle? Or lucky 7, or the devil's 6...

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Brasas: ...
Rested now? Had your fill of pussy and gold? OK, let's take a closer look at your bulletproof case. You keep saying that no liberal would act the way I did, ignoring my answer that my statement was so sarcastic that I absolutely didn't think anyone would take it seriously.

But let me humour you, forget about that, and show you that there is absolutely no way a fascist would make the "shitpost" I did.

I can see a fascist shitposting and telling everyone he's fascist and the names of his "buddies". But if that happens, one of the following has to be true:
A) He cracked. He's had enough and is just throwing the game.
B) It's a carefully thought out and crafted post meant to mindfuck and create conflict.

Either is valid for a fascist, but they're mutually exclusive. It's either-or. If I'm not mistaken, you believe I did (A), but so that I'm not accused of purposely misinterpreting you, I"m going to analyze both.

Let's say A is true. I cracked and did a "screw you guys, I'm going home", giving away my team. But if that were the case then greek had to be on my team too! If I put there his name as a sort of mind fuck and to create conflicts, then that would point at a carefully crafted post. Do you really a guy cracking, giving up on the game, giving away two of his team members, but then deciding he'd instead implicate an innocent so his team can win the game?

And there is more. Look at that post (linked above - 451). It's a huge wall of text with multiple quotes (which had to be manually copy pasted since post merging is not allowed). Is that the post someone who just cracked and wants to say "screw you!" makes? I'd just have typed my final sentence. Look at the posts I make a bit later. Are these the posts someone who gave up on the game makes?

And something much more important. Why did my "teammates" RW and adalia react the way they did. Why not bus me??? They could do so easily. RW was set up to be the next president while cycling back to greek. All he had to do is do nothing. adalia has just come in to replace silent-cristi. He could easily distance himself too.
Really? You're saying a fascist cracks up, posts his 2 team members names, and those two instead of bussing him, or at least create some form of conflict and distancing, both of them decide to support him instead??? And we're talking about highly experienced adalia and RW here. And they had plenty of opportunity.
And additionally look at RW the person. Is it his nature. Someone from his team screwed up his game and instead of "fuck you, screw you too", he becomes supportive.

No, the only reason for not bussing that fascist would be if that fascist was Hitler. I won't repeat how as Hitler I wouldn't have created the stink around me by rejecting kusu's nomination, there is soemthing much more important. As Hitler I wouldn't have known adalia and RW were my teammates (there was absolutely no indication on them back then)! The only way I'd have picked them as Hitler is if I got lucky and randomly happened to hit two of my teammates. But that contradicts your assumption that my picks weren't random. If Hitler-ZFR could randomly hit adalia and RW then so could Liberal-ZFR.

So let's look at (B). I didn't crack up, but this is a carefully crafted plan I made. But this doesn't hold either. If this was so, why did I risk giving up two names of my teammates. If I meant creating mindfuck conflicts, I would have given 3 liberal names, or 2 liberal + one teammate for WIFOM potential. But why give up two of them if I could achieve the same thing by giving up one (or zero), at a much smaller risk?
And if B is true, the point about them not bussing me still stands. Just like above.

So, Brasas. You've repeatedly said how the way I acted could only indicate I'm fascist. Forget about me for a moment and answer me, if your theory was true, how on earth would veteran mafia players adalia and RW act the way they did, the latter of whom was on everyone's good graces and didn't even need to bus me. All he needed is do nothing and not support me.
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Brasas: By stirring the pot I referred to Greek. You are clearly over-defensive.
Nitpicking now? I thought the pot stirring referred to me so I said I'd stop since I didn't want it to detriment the substance of my posts. You call that over-defensive?
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ZFR: No, if anything your statement should be "It's very very unlikely that random.org would pick names that correspond to what later would become ZFR's biases so accurately." And Brasas pointed out that I have a bias for RW and adalia and against greek and a correlation is important whether for or against. But at this point I have a bias for almost everyone. I have a bias for kusu, who Brasas said was likely the hidden Hitler, and I have a strong bias agains scene, and dedo for being on Brasas's "team". Only Lift is kind of neutral and blotunga is absent. So out of 8 people (10 players minus me and Brasas), there are 6 against who correspond to a "bias", so picking 3 from this pool is not so unlikely.

What this is is just an example of Apophenia. Whatever names random.org had picked back then would have looked somewhat "suspicious" later on. And this is from someone who does AI and data analysis for a living (and incidentally, yes I do use random.org professionally; I even mentioned it in some work related thread a year or two ago, but can't find it now; anyone remembers? Adalia, I think you were part of that discussion too).
It's like "pick a random number from 1 to 10" and then saying how can 1 be random? Or 10? Or 5 which is just in the middle? Or lucky 7, or the devil's 6...
This is actually what I was going to say as well. I'm currently reading a very good book about this kind of thing actually, and basically the bias is on the viewers end. We find that it looks suspicious now (far more than it did at the time) but actually as ZFR said whoever he picked would probably look odd for whatever reason, or wouldn't raise our suspicions at all (for example I could go back and pick any number of posts by any of us mentioning other players, but only the ones that match the current state of the game would stand out or look odd. If things had turned out differently and it looked like greek, blotunga, Lift and Kusu were a team then any posts mentioning them all together would stand out).

The fact that Brasas has basically used it to build a case against ZFR (and thinking about it, probably me too as I'm not sure his suspicions of me or cristi predate that post) seems far more telling to me.

As for Lift's question, I would probably be happy with Ash who seems to be fairly liberal and maybe ZFR (though I'm still on the fence as to whether he could be a fascist or not, I just find it less likely than the other available options).

And sorry ZFR, I don't really remember the thread... the only thread I can remember discussing work stuff in was the self employment one...