OK, here goes. This is actually not as bad as I thought it was. When I saw the government pass I thought we're going to see back and forth accusations and it'll get uphill from here, but the fact that the two at least agree on the policies passed makes this that much easier. So, without further ado
First:
supplementscene: I thought he or ZFR would be the one to take me out.
No, you didn't "think". That's the crux of the problem. You were "convinced" I'm fascist and based all your reasoning around that.
"If you start with a preconceived assumption you'll only arrive at a conclusion which supports that assumption" Can you honestly tell me, did you in all your reasonings and analysis of the game at least once consider "what if ZFR is not fascist?" and see what analysis you get from there.
I know someone said I like to play the devil's advocate a bit too often, but it's for precisely the above reason that I do it. Confirmation bias can be dangerous. And this is why I prefer not to do direct reads but instead follow if x then y analyses.
Of couse I'm writing all of the above assuming you are townie. If you're fascist then as greek said well played.
By the way, I'm keeping an open mind and much as I'm tempted to, I'm not calling you a fascist based on this policy your government passed. Especially because something new popped up since. But more on that in my analysis below.
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Second:
I formally apologize to all fellow liberals(*) for my "shitposting" and especially to RW, adalia and greek for naming them fascists. I snapped, but that's no excuse. Brasas is right in that: even if it was not meant to be taken seriously, it doesn't help liberals in any way and only creates unnecessary "mindfucking".
(*) If my "fellow liberals" includes Brasas then these apologies specifically exclude him. Because by God Brasas, if you're townie this has got to be the worst play I've ever seen. When you so happily did all your "baiting" thinking how clever you are, did you for
once consider that maybe, just maybe, a fellow townie will bite that? That not everyone played lots of mafia and might not be familiar with what the heck you're doing. That this is not the board secret Hitler game played on friday evenings that last 15 minutes each while having a beer, but actually takes many days? That you invest hours of your time analyzing plays? And that if for a week you, consistently and out of thin air are being called a fascist without any facts then the strain may take its toll?
Did you think of the
damage your "baiting" would be doing to liberals? all the mindfucks*1000 your tunneling could cause? I hope you are a fascist because if I find out after all this that you've been making this play as a liberal I'm going to use the new GOG profiles to somehow find out where you live, fly to Poland and take a dump at your doorstep.
Gaaaaaarh.
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Third:
A quick cursory analysis on the possible P-C combinations.
L-L : YES Possible. They're both liberal and got unlucky with the cards. Especially if someone lied before and the probabilities were worse than we thought they were.
L-F: YES Possible. Same as above. dedo got unlucky with the cards and scene was only too happy to pass a fascist policy without getting into conflict.
F-F: YES Possible. They could draw any cards then. F-F might actually explain one thing that didn't fit in a "scene is fascist" assumption. If scene is fascist why vote against me picking him? But maybe at this stage he felt that the need to be in a government with a fellow fascists and not risk LLF being drawn was more important than framing me (and I was being framed anyway).
Also FF might explain how scene conveniently "forgot" the FF possibility in his post 549 above.
F-L: I'm seeing this as a NO - not really possible. I might be wrong here but I don't see the possibility of a fascist passing FF to a liberal and then covering for him. If anything he'd want to create a conflict and say he passed FL no matter what he did.
Please correct me on this if you see anything.
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Fourth:
We should NOT get complacent. It might seem we're leading by a good margin, but in reality we're only safe if fascists are below 3 votes. We can't let them reach that limit because at that stage would you still be ready to trust greek + lift? That's when mindfucks really start.
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Fifth:
The one thing that struck me as odd yesterday was RW's YES vote. So here is another line of thought (and this one assumes scene is Liberal):
Now, as I stated earlier (and Lift mentioned recently too), I often when two guys are at each others' throats accusing each other of being scum, they're simply both scum trying to distance themselves. Could that be what Brasas and RW were doing?
RW was set against Brasas and scene but then he supported dedo+scene government ("to give them rope to hang themselves") and even said that Brasas should be next for the same reason. So that after his scum buddies dedo and Brasas pass 2 fascist policies he could emerge as the hero of the day?
Is that why he initially voted NO for dedo but then, due to the secret nature of voting this time, got scared that the government might actually fail so voted YES for dedo instead?
The only thing that doesn't fit with RW-dedo-Brasas scum team is the fact that this would mean this government was F-L, which in point 3 I showed to be unlikely. So there is something wrong in this line of thought. But some things really fit and I'd appreciate your input on this (RW, I'd appreciate your input on why you voted YES, and if you still think Brasas government is a good idea).
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Sixth:
If dedo is scum, then whoever of the duo (adalia, Brasas) he chooses to investigate is going to be WIFOM galore. I'm not sure what's the best course here.
What are your thoughts on investigating someone different altogether, like one of the "established" duo (greek, Lift) on the chance of picking off a well hidden Hitler? I toyed with that idea myself, but because we're close to reaching 5L policies I'm thinking it better to get a safe stepping stone to greek. Hitler can't hurt us yet.
And I'm done.Phew. That's some wall of text.