flatiron: Fact: Every year, people in the United States use guns to defend themselves against criminals an estimated 2,500,000 times – more than 6,500 people a day, or once every 13 seconds. 1 Of these instances, 15.7% of the people using firearms defensively stated that they “almost certainly” saved their lives by doing so.
HereForTheBeer: In an older report, the Bureau of Justice Statistics suggests around 7 million violent crimes annually, both reported and unreported:
https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/press/vnrp0610pr.cfm.
That "Fact" suggests that there are 9.5 million violent crimes - both perpetrated (7.0 mil) and prevented by firearms (2.5 mil) - and that people defended themselves with firearms against roughly 25% of them?
I find that difficult to believe.
flatiron: And then you look at places like Idaho, where you can walk around with guns in the open with no license and yet it has one of the lowest murder rates of any state, while at the same places like Chicago have massive gun violence rates in spite of the strictest gun laws in the nation...
HereForTheBeer: Population density and the huge difference in lifestyle play a big role here. Comparing all of Idaho (1.75 million people and 21 people per square mile) to Chicago (2.7 million people and 11,800 people per square mile) is about like comparing Mars to the bacteria population in my work boots.
Instead, compare Chicago to its closest large-population neighbor, Milwaukee. Milwaukee is in Wisconsin, a state that allows both open and concealed carry and socially quite similar. Population density is about half that of Chicago, but that's certainly closer than the Idaho comparison. They're about 90 miles apart, and Chicago has a notable influence on Milwaukee. From the FBI:
Chicago, 2.7 million people, 14,007 (reported) violent crimes in Jan-Jun 2017. One violent crime per 200 people
Milwaukee, 600,000 people, 4,539 (reported) violent crimes in Jan-Jun 2017. One violent crime per 132 people.
Just because we can, let's throw in another large metro area known for crime problems, but in a state with strict gun laws:
Oakland, CA, 425,000 people, 2,782 (reported) violent crimes in Jan-Jun 2017. One violent crime per 152 people.
Interestingly, Madison in Wisconsin, about 70 miles from Milwaukee and 110 or so from Chicago, has its own added gun restrictions, and they're sitting way low at 522 people per violent crime.
Using those numbers, one could argue looser gun laws equals
more violent crime. There's a lot more to it than simply strict or loose gun laws, even when comparing similar circumstances. The numbers for the murder rates are a bit different but show a similar tale: loose gun laws don't necessarily correspond to lower murder rates, unless one cherry-picks data. Even Oakland has a lower rate than light-restriction Milwaukee. And West Palm Beach in Florida - a state with very loose laws - has a higher murder rate than Chicago. So yeah, trying to make that correlation doesn't really work in a direct 'A has led to B' manner.
I agree, though, with some of your basic points. There are other ways of doing harm. And also that restrictions now aren't going to do much to change things, but I feel that's because there are simply soooo many firearms here now, that a 100% halt sales today means we still have 300 million of them in the country, along with billions and billions of rounds of ammunition. The best we can hope for is that the people who do purchase and own them take seriously the life-or-death power that this device gives them, and treat firearms accordingly.
But I also agree with adaliabooks, who points out that there is a difference between using a firearm for mayhem and using a knife or other up-close weapon, both physical and psychological.
Anyway, gruesome topic, and it's not a great thing to distill it down to numbers.
I wasn't saying that loose gun laws necessarily lead to lower murder. I was saying that stricter gun laws don't do a thing to lower murder... or at least I think I was saying that.
What loose gun laws do is offer an opportunity to lower murder rates by making sure citizens can defend themselves.
And the attitude toward guns means something. I would think that people in Idaho are more likely to carry, than people in Wisconsin. They have to actually be carrying to have an effect.
There is more to the story than simply making it easier to carry. But, as has been proven over and over again in places like Russia (which the people do live as well as they do here in the US) Brazil, etc... gun laws don't lower gun crime. All they do is disarm the victim or intimidate the victim from being armed.
And I don't see why density increase the risk of murder. It would be easier to hide the corpse in rural areas for example.
HereForTheBeer: In an older report, the Bureau of Justice Statistics suggests around 7 million violent crimes annually, both reported and unreported:
https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/press/vnrp0610pr.cfm.
That "Fact" suggests that there are 9.5 million violent crimes - both perpetrated (7.0 mil) and prevented by firearms (2.5 mil) - and that people defended themselves with firearms against roughly 25% of them?
I find that difficult to believe.
Population density and the huge difference in lifestyle play a big role here. Comparing all of Idaho (1.75 million people and 21 people per square mile) to Chicago (2.7 million people and 11,800 people per square mile) is about like comparing Mars to the bacteria population in my work boots.
Instead, compare Chicago to its closest large-population neighbor, Milwaukee. Milwaukee is in Wisconsin, a state that allows both open and concealed carry and socially quite similar. Population density is about half that of Chicago, but that's certainly closer than the Idaho comparison. They're about 90 miles apart, and Chicago has a notable influence on Milwaukee. From the FBI:
Chicago, 2.7 million people, 14,007 (reported) violent crimes in Jan-Jun 2017. One violent crime per 200 people
Milwaukee, 600,000 people, 4,539 (reported) violent crimes in Jan-Jun 2017. One violent crime per 132 people.
Just because we can, let's throw in another large metro area known for crime problems, but in a state with strict gun laws:
Oakland, CA, 425,000 people, 2,782 (reported) violent crimes in Jan-Jun 2017. One violent crime per 152 people.
Interestingly, Madison in Wisconsin, about 70 miles from Milwaukee and 110 or so from Chicago, has its own added gun restrictions, and they're sitting way low at 522 people per violent crime.
Using those numbers, one could argue looser gun laws equals
more violent crime. There's a lot more to it than simply strict or loose gun laws, even when comparing similar circumstances. The numbers for the murder rates are a bit different but show a similar tale: loose gun laws don't necessarily correspond to lower murder rates, unless one cherry-picks data. Even Oakland has a lower rate than light-restriction Milwaukee. And West Palm Beach in Florida - a state with very loose laws - has a higher murder rate than Chicago. So yeah, trying to make that correlation doesn't really work in a direct 'A has led to B' manner.
paladin181: The problem here is proximity. Guns are illegal in Chicago, but they are readily available in Milwaukee and St Louis (Another very near neighbor) It is trivial for someone to travel to either and get a weapon. Once you have one, you become the king because no law abiding citizens will have one. So it's not just about the laws in a specific place, but rather their proximity to other places with lax laws. If you make stricter federal guidelines and laws to regulate, then the availability of such weapons decreases exponentially because you can't just wander 50 or 100 miles and get what you want.
Tell that to Russia and man Latin American countries. High gun crime, strict gun laws nation wide. Proximity isn't the issue. They can be gotten and made anywhere if people want to.