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Lifthrasil: I am fairly confident that Consul is either scum or neutral,
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JoeSapphire: Why?
Matter of exclusion and likelihood. I work on the assumption that we have two anti-town players. They have to be in the group of Pooka, you, Joppo and Consul. Consul was behaving scummy time and again and less invested than some. His play would fit a third party that is disinterested who is lynched as long as it isn't him. I don't think at the moment that Pooka is scum. So I guess it's either you and Consul or Joppo and Consul. Of course it might also be you and Joppo with you being the neutral and Joppo scum. But somehow I don't feel Consul as Town.

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Lifthrasil: Let's do a quick calculation: We are probably at 5 vs 2. If you lynch me it will be 3 vs 2 tomorrow. Assuming and hoping that the double kill was a one-time thing. So you'll be at LYLO and have then to lynch correctly. I am fairly confident that Consul is either scum or neutral, so lynching me now might not spell doom for Town if you lynch him tomorrow. But still I would prefer if we lynch Scum today instead of me.
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agentcarr16: This goes down real bad.
Why? The numbers are what they are, whether you like them or not. If we assume 2 anti-town, we can afford one mis-lynch, but not more. What about this simple fact 'goes down real bad'? Or do you have some additional information that makes my assumed anti-town number unlikely?
I don't think more than one Jack of all Trade is particularly suspicious, as actions are "spells", fit the theme and most of the roles had limited shots.

Joppo claiming to be 100% true and offering to be the next lynch if he isn't is not very assuring, I have to agree with Lift there.

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JoeSapphire: It's POSSIBLE Agent Carr is a mafia godfather neighbouriser who's lying about the actions to discredit me - with a perfectly-judged delicate touch trusting others to come to the conclusion. Hmm... or maybe not.
Does anyone know if the Harry Potter canon would support a villain taking in an apprentice/protegé while pretending to be good?

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agentcarr16: However, he did say that either Caesar was the one or we believed a false claim. Make of that what you will.
Well, I know I'm town, so this naturally worries me. Did he elaborate? Any suspects? Just a hunch?
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JoeSapphire: Lifthrasil
Joppo
Pooka
Caesar
Carr (the one that's still in the game ;p)
Microfish
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agentcarr16: This whole Carr / Carr thing is getting really confusing.
Ok. I fixed it.

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JoeSapphire: It's POSSIBLE Agent Carr is a mafia godfather neighbouriser who's lying about the actions to discredit me - with a perfectly-judged delicate touch trusting others to come to the conclusion. Hmm... or maybe not.
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agentcarr16: Do you doubt that I have the delicate touch required for such a risky maneuver?
ummmm... of course not! 0:)

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agentcarr16: @Joe, do you have any more abilities?
Maybe I doesen'ts. Maybe I doesoseos.

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JoeSapphire: Why aren't we lynching Lifthrasil?
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agentcarr16: I don't follow.
We almost lynched him yesterday, but Carradice held out and it swung to Trentonlf. After Carradice's flip I thought he must have had some good reason for holding out. Now I see there is none. So what's changed?

Yesterday, you were in favour of lynching Pooka, is that still the case?

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Lifthrasil: Consul was behaving scummy time and again and less invested than some.
Can you find me examples? People have been speaking vaguely about Consul's scumminess for so long, but I don't really recall anything other than being less-present than other players, which I feel has been somewhat exaggerated.

Do you find Yogsloth's pushing for Caesar's lynch day one relevant?

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JoeSapphire: It's POSSIBLE Agent Carr is a mafia godfather neighbouriser who's lying about the actions to discredit me - with a perfectly-judged delicate touch trusting others to come to the conclusion. Hmm... or maybe not.
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ConsulCaesar: Does anyone know if the Harry Potter canon would support a villain taking in an apprentice/protegé while pretending to be good?
Nothing particularly compelling. Or spoiler-free. That I can think of.
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Lifthrasil: Consul was behaving scummy time and again and less invested than some.
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JoeSapphire: Can you find me examples? People have been speaking vaguely about Consul's scumminess for so long, but I don't really recall anything other than being less-present than other players, which I feel has been somewhat exaggerated.

Do you find Yogsloth's pushing for Caesar's lynch day one relevant?
Huh. Checking back there isn't that much concrete scumminess as I remembered. It is mostly lurkiness and the impression that he stalled his claim until it was too late to do something with it last Day. Other than that there were just small things like expressing relief over the missing NK and congratulating the Cop. (Posts 898 and 994).

However, if he really is neutral, Yogs pushing for his lynch doesn't exonerate him. Scum usually doesn't know who the neutral player is. They just know who isn't on their team.
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Lifthrasil: Other than that there were just small things like expressing relief over the missing NK and congratulating the Cop. (Posts 898 and 994).
Would you have preferred if I was sad that we were winning? :p


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Lifthrasil: However, if he really is neutral, Yogs pushing for his lynch doesn't exonerate him. Scum usually doesn't know who the neutral player is. They just know who isn't on their team.
That is true (not my being neutral, which I'm not, but the logical relation you established. Perhaps we could try to establish new ones with living players? For example, is Joppo is telling the truth about his tracking, then Pooka is innocent from the night kills (although not vice versa: Pooka being innocent makes Joppo look good but doesn't clear him). Do you guys trust this binomial? Can anyone come up with others?
@Consul: the point is, expressing relief at a Night that went well for Town or, even worse, thanking the Doctor or the Cop for doing their job is a frequent strategy of scum players to show that they are oh so happy and not bothered at all about Scum's misfortune. Especially newer players tend to do that.

But yes, the Joppo->Pooka relation was already established. Which is why I treat Pooka as 'probably not scum'. See post 1329.

Then Joppo and Joe seem to be at odds. Seem to be ... but would Scum!Joppo really call doubt to the 'confirmed Town' status of a theoretical Buddy!Joe? I don't think so. So I guess this is either Town on Town or these two are in different factions.
my thought has been that Joe is town, but why auto-clear Pooka?

Pooka & Joppo could be on the same team. Pooka claimed a role easy to hide behind, after the night was over claimed a "oh, btw, you could have cleared me last night, but i didn't mention it and now you have 0 more chances".

But would scum!Pooka call Joppo's credibility (the multi-use thing) in question if they were teammates? I think this leads to Pooks leaning town, barely.

As I commented to ZFR recently...
I don't suppose the scum would remove one of their own players (A) to give another teammate (B) a good story to make him (B) lock-town, now would they?!?! Paranoia at work there...

My thought almost as soon as Trent was removed was "I sure do wish we had removed Lift instead" for several reasons, as stated previously.

Only reason for Joppo to lie is if a) Pooka is a ninja, invisible to trackers/watchers, or b) they are on the same team.

^^This doesn't clear Pooka by a long shot. Why does Lift not consider that Pooka might have lied, after his whole Lunch-all-liars-no-questions-asked thing early on and nearly every game?

I was hoping Carradice would say why he cleared Lift, as I only have gut feelings to clear him on.

Conversely, if Joppo is lying, Pooka did one of the actions last night and did a wee bit of gentle bussing to save Joppo in case the hammer fell on either of them.

Strongest case for being taken out to lunch: all vanillas + claimed millar & tracker.
Someone give me a concrete case i can vote on, not an asphalt case!
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agentcarr16: This goes down real bad.
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Lifthrasil: Why? The numbers are what they are, whether you like them or not. If we assume 2 anti-town, we can afford one mis-lynch, but not more. What about this simple fact 'goes down real bad'? Or do you have some additional information that makes my assumed anti-town number unlikely?
It was the self-aware LAMISTism.

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ConsulCaesar: Well, I know I'm town, so this naturally worries me. Did he elaborate? Any suspects? Just a hunch?
He did not elaborate.

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JoeSapphire: Ok. I fixed it.
Gee, thanks.

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JoeSapphire: Yesterday, you were in favour of lynching Pooka, is that still the case?
Yes.
@micro: of course I am considering the possibility that Pooka might have lied and might be scum. I just rate him as lower probable scum than Consul or Joppo. As I have written repeatedly.

But I don't know what lynch all liars has to do with that. It's not 'lynch everyone who might have lied' but it's lynching all proven liars. Do you have proof that pooka lied about something? Then share it and if he really lied, I will be the first clamouring for his lynch!

That being said, sleeping over the game and re- thinking, I came to the conclusion that Consul shouldn't be my top pick. As I was made to realise yesterday, my case against him isn't particularly strong beyond his lurkiness.

However, I also reconsidered Joppo. All his 'results' could conveniently be faked. None really helped Town. Either he is one unlucky tracker or his results were tailored not to help town too much and not to cause conflict. Also, while his case against Joe sounds true, scum could also make valid observations and build cases against Townies. And who would have the biggest interest in increasing the suspect pool in our current situation? Scum! Especially one that is one of the top picks for many players.

Therefore
Unvote Consul
DroppusAnvilus on Joppo
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Lifthrasil: snip.
Ah, I see. Okay. No, I don't have proof that he lied, but the wiki seemed to indicate policy-lunching millars was par for the course and maybe even good. Then, when he failed to mention his investigation ability in time for a cop to actually notice, if one still existed... makes me think it is an elaborate deception "you snooze, you lose" gambit scum are playing "but you could have proven me otwn! now, of course, you cannot!"
And Pooka is a good enough player & writer--as scum, even if he is our last scum--to analyze the other conditional things and come up with a modifier that's not real.

However, as you verbalized what I have been thinking (and saying)? about Joppo (unless you, another skilled former scum are quoting me?), coupled with Joppo fingering the bad guys last game, and maybe the game before, but having no good leads this game...
it seems time for me to
Eject the floppy disk labeled Joppo.exe

Insert Floppy disks titled "Find quidditch ball" hints.txt and avoid mud pit in field hints.txt (yes, I have two floppy drives.)
As I relayed here, in a mostly funny thread which is full of technical advice jokes, our floppy drive's springs were a tad bit overpowered. :D
Hmmm, yesterday Gog wouldn't accept my posts for whatever reason. Let me try again.

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joppo: @Joe: Indeed, Lift does look weirdly different from how I read him in earlier days. This is much more like how I remember scum!Lift. Can you build a case?
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Lifthrasil: That raises the question: have you ever seen me as Town!Lift before? As Joe noticed himself, you seem awfully willing to just go along with a wagon that might succeed without making a case of your own!
I actually did, but as we get more data or people change their behaviour I expect my reads to change along the way. Holding too tightly onto my early views would blind me to the sneakier sort of scum. D1!Joppo didn't think SPF was scum, whereas D5!Joppo could (if he had not been found out before. But that's the sort of thing we will never know)

The problem is, late-game unease isn't really the most adequate motive to vote someone. So I asked Joe to give me an anchor point where I can better understand and analyze whether you are as scummy as he thinks. If it resonates with my unease you'd get my vote. Well not anymore, since after that I realized we have a much better candidate in Joe himself.

More to come, naturally. Not just what I had prepared for yesterday but also latest developments
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Lifthrasil: That being said, sleeping over the game and re- thinking, I came to the conclusion that Consul shouldn't be my top pick.
Would you say you dropped the ball on that one?
Vote Count

joppo 2 - Lift, Micro
Lift 1 - Joe
Joe 1 - joppo

Not voting - Caesar, Pooka, agent

7 Players. Takes 4 to lynch.
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joppo: But I am certain of what I'm doing. If I'm wrong lynch me first thing the next day.
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Lifthrasil: That is a very bad thing to ask in our situation, if you really are Town. If the next lynch is a mis-lynch, we HAVE to lynch scum tomorrow.
Damn. I didn't realize we were already going to reach LYLO. (Well, possibly. We don't know that. But it is better if we consider a worst case scenario)
Still, that is only the case if it is a mislynch. Which I am confident won't be.

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joppo:
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JoeSapphire: You're forgetting my winky face! It's hard to fake a knowing wink if you don't actually know.
THAT is your defense? That you posted a wink? To the not-that-hard-to-figure-out breadcrumber cop?

I kinda wish I hadn't voted you before only so that I could do it now.

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JoeSapphire: but yeah, Carradice's actions reveal kinda crapped on all my credibility didn't it?

It's POSSIBLE Agent Carr is a mafia godfather neighbouriser who's lying about the actions to discredit me - with a perfectly-judged delicate touch trusting others to come to the conclusion. Hmm... or maybe not.
Possible? Yes.
Likely? I put all my chips in the much simpler theory that the 99% confirmed neighbourizer told the truth about the 100% confirmed JOAT.

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joppo: 4 shots
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agentcarr16: That's an interesting note. Everything else has been 1 or 3 (or unlimited...?). @Joe, do you have any more abilities?

I do have to say that he claimed JOAT before we knew about Carradice, so he's got that going for him.
Quite the opposite. Much like if someone claimed to be Lee Jordan before you did it wouldn't mean they had that going for them. Most likely Joe claimed JOAT as a way to explain why he had a "vigilante shot" and to be kept by town as a protected townie with a powerful PR. When Carradice flipped Joe was already committed to that narrative.

Carradice probably didn't pick up on it due to inexperience. I would have let that slide as well if I didn't check a few previous games for role balance and noticed they don't usually repeat the strongest roles.
And different from Joe, we have no doubts that Carradice was truly a JOAT.

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Microfish_1: Someone give me a concrete case i can vote on, not an asphalt case!
What, my case against the "JOAT" who conveniently claimed a PR that was later discovered to be held by another player, who holds more than the three shots of powerful PRs and whom I explained all his claims could be faked doesn't count?

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agentcarr16:
Let me repeat a question I posed to you back when I presented my case against Joe. Did Carradice comment anything about the oddity of Joe claiming to protect the same player as him during N3?

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Lifthrasil: Also, while his case against Joe sounds true, scum could also make valid observations and build cases against Townies.
Sure. Which is why I recommend you look at the case I built through both lenses, but currently you seem to be stuck on a notion that Joe is a paragon of towniness. But now that I think about it maybe there's a different reason you're so set on protecting him.

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Lifthrasil: And who would have the biggest interest in increasing the suspect pool in our current situation? Scum! Especially one that is one of the top picks for many players.
That is not "increasing the suspect pool" as much as it is "bringing back to it someone who was never cleared in the first place". If Carradice had told us back then what we know now the only thing that would count as an indicator of towniness for Joe would be his killing SirPrimalForm, which I already explained can be seen as a SK's action. You seen hellbent on painting me all sorts of scum now, which at first I thought could just be an OMGUS reaction to my post #1341 but now I wonder if it isn't something more akin to scum coming to the rescue of his buddy.

If you think the suspect pool should be kept small just for the sake of it, sure. Go ahead and clear everyone who bakes a half-assed story. Just don't be surprised to see scum reach the final day among those cleared townies.

Man! The biggest contribution to finding scum so far except those attained by PRs (yes, even Carradice had a PR confirmation when he stopped Yogsloth), made only through observation and logic, and the result is that I become the main suspect. Where did you present a case as thoroughly built against a player that is probably scum other than throwing multiple theories around Lift?
EBWOP:
If Carradice had told us back then what we know now the only thing that would count as an indicator of towniness for Joe would be his killing SirPrimalForm, which I already explained can be seen as a SK's action, and his clearance would be a lot weaker, wouldn't it?