Wait, that wasn't a slip, that was me claiming PR so I could make a case against ZFR rolehunting me.

So it was supposed to have a sarcastic undertone to it? Maybe something like this?

Note - I'm not fully caught up. One of the four cats has kidney failure, and I have to go help deal with administering fluids now. This is going to take a while.



I think he's just being butthurt because I made a post so large that I had to split it between three posts detailing why I think he isn't as inexperienced as he claimed and also why I think he's mafia.


to long; didn't read - His posts read like someone who is more experienced with the game than what he stated, specially his use of jargon that nobody else in the thread has used (role madness, rolehunter). This makes his comment that he has no prior experience beyond reading the most recent game look like a lie. If you're going to lie about something this stupid, it makes other things look suspicious.

Even without that -

He was quick to read too much into Catte's change to Sanspoof and act like something nefarious was going on.

He was quick to get into an altercation with ZFR when asked what he misread, then spontaneously offers to reveal his role thus implying that he was town when nobody was even trying to vote him off.

He tried to start something with me yesterday after I voted for someone that wasn't even him because they looked like a lurker, which is just more bizarre behavior. Especially since this was after I had pretty much accused him of being mafia. I've since made this post here: (see post 294)


I'm going to need to refer you back to the incident of the voteless townie: (see post 196)

Hypothetically speaking, let's say that Frost's role function is mafia ninja, which I'm using only because this was the actual role of the voteless townie.

If he comes out and says on day one, "Hey everyone. I'm the mafia ninja. If you try to investigate me, I'll appear to be at home asleep in my bed. Meanwhile I'll send one doppelganger out to for secret mafia meetings and another doppelganger out to perform an additional solo assassination on the side."

Why would you not vote to lynch in this case?

By offering to reveal his role, Frost is implying that he is town because mafia roles would be lynched if revealed. By stating that he has a special role, he's also implying that he's valuable to the town thus should never be lynched.

It's literally man in Spanish. LMFAO

No, I'm describing survivorship bias because you're concentrating on the cases that made it past your selection criteria. Selection bias would've meant you did some sort of statistical analysis and fudged with the numbers, but alas, you did not attempt such a thing and I'd question where you'd even get the data for it.

You just claimed my scenario as unfeasible because of your couple anecdotes. Right. You're right. You didn't say the sky is gray. You just said it ain't blue, though both of us are indoors and don't see it at all.

Going to catch up as much as I can in the time I got now, and will come back later to continue.

Off to read.

Phew, I'm back. I meant to stick around after my last post but I discovered our fridge-freezer seems to be in trouble so I've been doing an emergency defrost.

Yes, but with less of a Lorne Michaels impression.

I'm sorry about your kitty, I hope it gets better.

I'm sorry but I don't understand what point you're trying to make here. How does the scenario you're describing here relates to what has happened so far?

This bit I do understand and I agree it's perfectly possible. But wouldn't you also agree that it can be the other way around and they are what they claim to be and just got spooked and overdid it? Are you comfortable risking a potential [maybe powerful] Townie role right out the gate just to make sure you haven't been fooled? Let me ask this in a different manner. Assume you're a Day Vigilante right now and you can shoot someone on the spot during the Day as we speak. Everything is as is right now in terms of public (and private as far as you are concerned) knowledge. Would you shoot Frostburn?


I see. Why didn't you make a stronger point about it and/or follow up on it?

Well we were still in RVS as far as I was concerned. If that post had happened on D2 or even later on D1 I probably would have pushed at it a bit. I might follow up if something later makes it feel relevant.

Dude, I know what hombre means.

It's the "chill" part I don't like. Telling someone to chill when having an argument is not cool. Please don't do it.

"Selection bias" is a broad term. Cherry picking is specifically what you're accusing me of: selecting specific anecdotal cases and concentrating on them.

Survivorship bias is something else entirely. It's not "you're concentrating on the cases that made it past your selection criteria." as you put it, but it's concentrating on cases that didn't make it past some selection criteria. i.e. they didn't survive some "natural" process.

Survivorship bias is for example someone saying today that video games from the 90s were all nice because, if he looks at those games today he mostly sees nice ones. His population today is mostly those games that survived because they were nice so he's only concetrating on games that passed this process. he doesn't have access to all the crappy games that failed and are not available today.
Cherry picking is saying "video games from the 90s were mostly strategies" because Warcratft, Red Alert and HoMM were all strategies. In this case, even though other games are still readily available, he's only concetrating on games that passed his own hand picked criteria: strategies.

No I didn't. I said that my scenario could happen too, because of couple of anecdotes. Do you see the difference between "my scenario could happen" vs "your scenario is unfeasible"?


----

Can you answer a question for me?

My post 176 mentions that Mafia have a choice:

"If Frost is Town, Mafia will have to do something about him at Night, or risk his PR interfering with them."

i.e. They can do A or B. Either one of those cases

Why did you write post 191 concentrating on one case: one where Mafia take the risk of him living? If I already wrote about those two possibilites, why did you feel the need to stress only one of them?

I did a quick VC (Vote Count) while reading, and what do I see? I was shot to being the prettiest princess*. And in the span of three hours and five posts, no less.
I'll check the details later, for now - really? I think you lot could use a good whipping to steer you into a different direction, and land some other place. Preferably on your arses.

*grabs Indy's whip; cracks it at the feet of his voters*


* prettiest princess = becoming lead wagon; GOG forum mafia expression.


OK, now that I got that out of my system, here's my first post - I got a bit more, so if anyone's around, give me bump when I post this as to not have to wait around for 10 minutes. Note that I'm grouping replies/comments per player for easier consumption (it sure helps me keep track of things).


What about detective_razza do you find scummy? Make your argument.


Three things:
1. Your read of ZFR as "far more town than earlier" reads to me like you found him town back then too, and for reasons unstated in-thread, it has now strengthened. But in posts #138 and #148 you said you're scum-reading him, and with quite some confidence. How do you consolidate these?
2. As I didn't find anything in your ISO, can you go into specifics as to what shifted your read on ZFR?
3. Are you saying here that you think that scum!Ambiti0nZ's pushing ZFR's wagon? I'm not sure I see the logical thought process from having misunderstood bucktoothgamer to [emphasis added] "But I will keep an eye on AZ".


By the same token, one could say that you voted Ambiti0nZ to put him quite ahead of babark at a time when the former was only one vote ahead of the latter. Is there anything else about LordCephy's content that makes you think he's scummy?



And this, in a game where people either are or would say they're town if they aren't, is telling because...? I don't follow why you put weight on it.


You make an interesting case on FrostburnPhoenix. Except for the point about Catte's alignment this game based on his alignment in the previous game, which has been addressed by others already so I'm covered.

I got one follow up question which I"m going to ask you after FrostburnPhoenix's reaction to the next part of this post.

So, reading through the thread, two observations in relation to LordCephy's case of FrostburnPhoenix:
1. FrostburnPhoenix hasn't deemed it worthy to explain/defend themself against any of the things that LordCephy detailed in his posts. The only things they (FrostburnPhoenix) did is to correct a VC, and return the scum-read.

@FrostburnPhoenix, do you have anything to say for yourself against all the things LordCephy's said? Do you have an explanation/rebuttal for any of it?


2. JoeSaphire who was interested in hearing about this (post #234), has absolutely nothing to comment/follow up on except for the totally insignificant content of post #263.

@JoeSaphire, what was the purpose of asking LordCephy to talk about reading FrostburnPhoenix as an experienced player? Did something happen that made you lose interest in what they had to say about the latter?


Do you really think that detective_razza was instrumental (you repeated it in post #285) in babark making post #232? Especially since detective_razza themself framed their vote as "a nudge"?

The way I read it, babark was reacting with great delay (hadn't posted since his post #157) to dedoporno's and ZFR's posts #156 and #158, respectively.


Out of curiosity, who did you think Ambiti0nZ was voting for in this VC?


Posting this, and please bump.

bump

Then why even bother if it's unimportant enough to not make anything of it? To be fair initially I read that the other way around - as you sort of agreeing with RW's second vote on me. It turns out it's the exact opposite thing but nothing came out of it nor you came back later on after RW's explanation to close it up like "Ah, OK, that makes sense I guess. Let's move on."


This keeps going, huh? I'm starting to get last game Cadaver vibes here. Last time that felt like TvT and turned out to be exactly that.

zfr v cadaver from two games ago or catte-the-big-scum v cadaver last game?

Me vs Cadaver last game.