Sorry for being late.
trentonlf: Exactly how do you know who is or isn't Mafia with who? Are you saying you get that from the stats you listed?
Well, I was trying to "channel Pooka", because at some point in the game, he usually points out the final vote count and stuff, because Mafia Partners (supposedly) don't sit on the same wagon, at least not until later in the game when there are only few players left. Or does this not apply here, because we don't need a hammer for lynching?
A better example is probably:
Micro and dedo were both on yogs wagon on EOD2 and 3. So that should make it really unlikely that they are Mafia Partners.
Well, that's not helping with our current situation. And I lack the proper skillset for this kind of thing.
Lifthrasil: And if you were Mafia, you would point out exactly this. 'Hey, if I were Mafia, I wouldn't be that bloody obvious. So I can't be Mafia!' ... that's a classical play. But it's pure WIFOM.
My thought process was more like this:
Mafia knows who isn't on their team and therefore most likely town. And since there are at least two of them they would most likely alternate between joining the wagon of the most likely lynch candidate, because the same player ending up on many successful town lynch wagons would look really suspicious.
But I see my error in thought now. I had the misconception there might actually be fixed never-evers for Mafia, but it's probably more of a (current) personal preference thing for each player separately.
Lifthrasil: The Jester? Why are you bringing that up again? No one but you speculated about a Jester and if you were one, you would be dead by now. Jesters can be brought up as a distraction to support a scum-buddy without Town-reading him. 'Hey! He looks so bad, maybe he's a Jester' is another way of saying 'Yes, my buddy just slipped, but don't lynch him. It might be what he wants!'
I brought it up, because it struck me as odd that you specifically mentioned that in your reread summery of my post. And your argument doesn't make sense to me. It's their win condition and removes a distraction. I understand the reasoning behind Vitek's post 410 "It could be taken as way to lynch someone without calling them mafia" better, but now that I think about it, jesters probably aren't that common (because nobody likes them) so bussing would be more appropriate and less attention-drawing. But that's beside the point in this game.
About post 1290: Why do you only ask about my thoughts on Vitek's claim?
Lifthrasil: @Flocke: Any personal reads? Any comments on what was written about you and about others in relation to you or in relation to each other? What are your thoughts on Vitek's claim? Who is your preferred lynch target for Today and why?
My reads have been all off so far, except for my gut feeling on Carradice based on previous games that I didn't act on. That's not exactly promising. But there's no way around it, so:
Micro seems to be like he usually is, at least the games I read. Wording things in a way some find suspicious or that are/seem contradictory (even more so under pressure?), which quite often seems to be the reason he gets lynched. So far he was only Town (if the banter from the beginning of the game is correct). But that might also be true for MafiaMicro.
He breadcrumbed his role early Day1. And breadcrumbed the investigation results. Seems a lot of work, that might not pay off. If he's known to breadcrumb every game (I don't know about that), he might have had to though. Personally, I think claiming Vanilla would have been the better option then though. Wouldn't have worked out in this game, but the overall chances would still have been better then Tracker?
Vitek: Unknown player. So nothing about former games to see potential similarities or differences.
I take it he didn't breadcrumb or he would have already told us.
(I will continue on this later today. I haven't reread him yet and want to take a look at interactions.)
(I'm writing it all out here, because I need to see it.)
And mechanics (PRs making sense? and Actions making sense?)
Carradice Mafia Role Cop
gogtrial Town 1xCommuter
SPF Town Compulsive Visitor
supplementscene Town Doctor
Micro claimed Tracker, claimed investigations: N1 dedo (nothing), N2 Lift (nothing), N3 trent (got blocked)
Vitek claimed 4xJOAT, claimed investigations: N1 blocked yogs (nothing), D2 watched dedo (nothing), D3 tracked Micro (successfully to trent)
One of them seems to be lying. (Yeah, I know, nothing new.)
Also sorry for leaving it here, but it's 03:00 in the night and I'm dead tired. Good news is it's almost weekend and I will have more time once work is done today.