Okay, can't sleep.

Here are some questions for town on Adalia's wagon:

1) Do you still think he's guilty, or are you mostly annoyed with him?
2) If the latter, wouldn't the wiser course to be voting based on the road ahead and not the road behind?
3) Is there basis for policy lynching him? Doesn't really seem to be.
4) Many of you have said there's nothing to be learned from his wagon, so why not come over to a wagon where there's actually something to learn?

Even though CSPVG is not the person I had in mind earlier I'm somewhat agreeing with you on him needing more serious scrutinizing. Early lists being a somewhat weird request I thought may not be as serious as it looked, but I'm not a fan of asking for dusk reads when we are at the brink of the lynch. The only person who is recommended to share their reads is the lynchee. Any other data is better yet kept private, no need to feed the scum for their NK. I did mention I believe CSPVG distanced himself from adalia at the beginning of his move which may have been a defense reflex for scum (but for anyone else, too) and staying out of the a quickly forming wagon can be just a way to keep scum's hands clean. That is actually one of my biggest concerns with such plays in general - presenting an easy target may attract too many real townies who are already grasping at straws and are looking to pick the smallest things to work with. And in this situation we will be doing the scum a favor by lynching our own because there was no better lead. We are still couple of votes away from closing the lynch but I'm pretty sure not all scum are there. I won't be surprised if there aren't even that many. Why take a risk if the townies are going to do it themselves anyway in time? Staying away gives the additional bonus of saying "See? I told you he was one of us, but you lynched him anyway. His blood is on your hands!". I tried to do this myself last game, even though I didn't live long enough to actually follow up on the next day.

Anyway, let me ask you what I asked adaliabooks in a slightly different way - are you confident enough to risk lynching/outing a potential power role in a situation where we are sure the worst case scenario is a vanilla? Actually that question is directed to anyone who wishes to share their thoughts on it.

I'm probably not the best person to answer since my data set is small, but I would assume town would have 2-3 power roles and maybe a few lesser roles, and that there are 3-4 scum or non-town. Last game arguably town only had 2 solid power roles (cop + doctor) and then a handful of roles handicapped by some manner of RNG.

So to my mind it seems an even to slightly positive proposition, though I do see and respect your point.

You ask a question, then you answer it later in your post. What have you noticed about other players in the midst of Adalia's song-and-dance?
-Flub seems to be avoiding doing anything.
-Hijack hasn't been out for blood.
-Bler and I haven't gone after Adalia with the rest of them.

You got some data about some players (might have made the Flub read regardless). You also have a data point about Adalia, if he somehow magically survives. This is data you can process in later days, as more things happen. Its almost like this isn't just about today, but about the future Days in the game as well.

Waaait...where have I heard that argument before?

As for me:
-Flub and Trent are high on my suspicion list. I'm waiting to see about RW; can't tell if there is anything there yet.
-Bler is roaming around on the townie side of my scale right now. Enh, its probably just because he seems to agree with me.

In a broad sense, here's what I see Adalia as having done "wrong":
-Suggested everyone start placing votes, regardless of who else has voted where.
-Callous about lives of individual town players.
-More than unapologetic for the first two points.


I'd like to say that this only extends to Day 1, and it only applies to behavior where the person is trying to get the game moving. If Adalia had been caught in a lie, for example, I wouldn't be inclined to be lenient. After Day 1, there should be enough material to try and push things forward without resorting to such risky tactics.

1) Yes, there is significant reason to believe he might be guilty. Inconsistencies, begging the question, "town points".
2) N/A
3) Actually yes there is. Vanilla town is a very common scum fall back. It's easy to claim "I'm useless" and try to stay overlooked. Furthermore, now that it has been revealed, if true, his role is useless in terms of protecting any other town.
4) It's only mostly useless, if he flips town as he claims. If he flips scum, then we have learned "A LOT". Furthermore, the point of a lynch is not just to gather information, it's to actually lynch scum. Else one would just be lynching the most controversial targets who might give the most information, power roles be damned. You actually come off as a bit scummy asking this. Do we need to push someone else to the brink to force yet another day 1 claim, since this one didn't help scum as much as it could have?

It doesn't help that you are one of those pushing discussion of stats. Can't you see that this line of thought is more damaging to town than helping us? Do we really care so much about scum roles? Nah, they don't generally matter as much. So any discussion in this area is really talking about town roles and should someone slip up in talking about it, it reveals information only really useful to the enemy. This is one of the things I meant when I said be careful what you are talking about in terms of who this might help.

May I ask you a question? Why does it appear you are trying to move us off this wagon? What's your goal here? Do you want everyone to role claim, one by one, on Day 1 as they are pushed to the brink of lynch?

Minor correction, but with RW on the board (#359) I believe Adalia is now L-1.

Personally, I'd have liked to see some of the non-contributors be pressured into participating more. Hard to get a read on someone that doesn't do anything. We've seen Adalia be active, and we can be reasonably sure that he'll remain so. If he survived and suddenly clammed up on Day 2, I think that combined with his Day 1 reasoning would be more than enough justification to go back and lynch him.

However, with Yog starting to make sounds about an approaching deadline, it may be too late to switch course and still be able to get switched back if the new course doesn't look good.

You keep bringing up "town points" as a scum indicator. Why is it scummy to indicate that someone appears more town for a comment? Do you really think town shouldn't let other town know who they think is town? Is it also scummy to say something like "that looks scummy, scum points for you"?

I am having second thoughts but I can't yet convince myself that going back to square one and start poking at another bush is the better option.

There kind of is. As adalia said himself the whole idea is somewhat relying on getting the actual flip to make the point for him and go from there. I said sometime ago that the wagon isn't really that random and I do believe it will provide data to work with, but if there is a better option I like to keep an open mind. Once again, we are grasping at straws and at least some people are on the wagon for the lack of a better alternative.

I may be mistaken but when I say power role I mean any role that has some effect regardless of it's usefulness or quantity/quality (basically everything that it's not plain vanilla).

1) Specific examples of inconsistencies? "Town points" doesn't worry me much, frankly. I chat that way myself, and IIRC did so several times last game.

3) I agree with you if this were later in the game. I don't know what investigative roles town has, and more importantly Adalia doesn't either - presumably we agree he's either vanilla town or lying scum. So even if he sticks around as a vote, he's neutralized until roles start flipping - he won't be able to talk his way out if he's observed visiting anyone for any reason. If a tracker or watcher or cop flips later without confirming we still have the option of policy lynching him later imo.

4) True, I guess I just tend to think that's very unlikely at this point. So perhaps the argument doesn't sway anyone who thinks he's as likely as anyone else to flip scum.

5) I don't think it's damaging, personally. I'm on the record as saying it's probably noise, but that doesn't mean it's not worth at least considering occasionally when we get new data.

6) A full answer probably requires violating your rule #5 (above), but on the whole I think I've been quite clear that I'm trying to move people onto one very specific wagon. So your accusation that I'm trying to get "everyone" to role claim on D1 seems more than a bit hyperbolic, wouldn't you have to agree?

Let me answer your question with a question...
What does it serve our discussion to say, "Good point, town points to you"?
But if you want me to expound, yes, that is actually one of the good points Adalia made. It does actually only really help scum to know who people consider most townly. Its a common scum tactic to eliminate the most trusted among town, why let them know it.

But worse is this...
Scum knows who is town. So scum makes a keen observation and adds fire to help condemn someone they know to be town. And you are giving them town points for helping their own cause. So, one person making good points attacking a townie here and there, is not something I call townly more than scumly. Because scum will do the same thing in a heartbeat.

Its not to say there aren't actions I consider townly, but generally speaking they will be generalizations and actions that maintain our focus on the bigger picture. Good observations about one individual? They only become townly after that person is revealed to be scum. To be announcing "Town points for you" bedore we even know, is more ingratiating than townly.

It says "I think this player is less likely to be scum." You don't have to list who you think is MOST town in order to say "yeah, that comment helps town".

So if scum will use a tactic to advance their goal, it is automatically scummy to use that tactic? Do you see the problem with this idea?

If a person is scummy for attacking a townie, then how do you justify the people going after Adalia; how do you know he isn't town? I'll agree that attacking a "confirmed" townie is more likely a scum tactic, but do we have any confirmed townies right now?

I guess I just don't see it. Logically, if identifying who one thinks is town (and why!) is scummy, then mentioning who one thinks is scum is also a scum thing to do because it also reveals who one thinks isn't scum, by process of elimination. If no one ever points out who they think are scum, then town is going to choke on lack of information. I recall hearing that trying to find scum by eliminating who isn't scum is also something town should be doing; approach the issue from both sides when trying to find the targets. This is why the cop is a powerful role: it can find scum, but it can also find who isn't scum (thus narrowing the list of possible scum).

How do you know he is town? I don't know anyone who is town but me, and the only ones who know who are town at this time is scum. As you said there are no confirmed townies and you saying adaliabooks is town hints at knowledge a townie should not know.

Adalibooks is under scrutiny for how he has behaved that is how you justify people questioning him. Trying to make it more than that by saying people are going after him is insinuating rather strongly that there is no reason to be questioning him and to be doing so is unjust.

Lets look specifically at the scummy post #242 where Adalia does this...
Lift finally votes him. So Adalia claims "Town points for you". What is the purpose in this?
Is Adalia saying "I was acting scummy. This is a test and you passed?" Rather not very towny right?
Or was Adalia trying to disarm Lift. Hoping by ingratiating himself on Lift, Lift might later remove the vote or reconsider?
On what basis is he claiming Lift earned town points anyway? For voting a town for lynch? Seems silly to think someone is townly for being wrong? Certainly the way it was done in post 242 seems very off to me...

Now as to the game in general...
I acknowledge to myself what seem to be insightful observations. But I don't call them townly.
I look at them and think smart, and then ask why wouldn't a scum say that? Under what conditions would a scum not say that?
If what is said might both be useful for the speaker as both town and scum, it shouldn't get town points...
And most of the time, until we know if the target of the comment was scum, that comment could equally be a townie, or a scum "helping" us lynch our own...

Fair points. I have discovered a minor hole in my own logic, and am reminded that I talked the group off of Yog and onto CSP last game on a move that was both significant misread and tactical miscalculation of how various scenarios played to completion. Unlikely, but possible Adalia is trying to 1-up Yog with a similar role.

I do think you are correct that multiple claims is a notable net loss if my read is wrong and the odds I've cracked the code on even one player in D1 on a few minor slips are probably slim. If he were scum, how likely is it that he'd try the same gambit again in the same day after getting called on it once? Too much attention, right?

Vote is staying where it is mostly just to see who else hammers whether or not it's useful, but maybe just a wave of irrational exuberance there in trying to move the mountain and the better course is to step back and start from scratch on D2. I dunno. Tired.

And frankly RL tomorrow I need to be 100% engaged in RL anyway, so a nightfall break would be good timing for me, rather than piling time/energy into a move that's at least as likely to be wrong as not and is going to take focus away from where it's needed.

Tempted to say this is my last post for D1, but realistically I'm too OCD to not say something else if the day stretches much longer. Say, any more than 10 minutes. ;)