So, you assume that at least the Doctor got bid on, you also find it unlikely for the Vigilante to get three bids and the Doctor only one, and at the same time you won't be surprised if no-one bid for the Doctor.

And I'm not assuming that every role is in the game "just because". I've presented my arguments on why I make the assumption (go do the maths), yet you choose to ignore them, and instead say that I have no arguments and do so for no reason.

Interesting.

I get the sense you're kinda overusing this word now.

As for JMich. Man, you have to teach me your ways and skills. If I can get girls to obsess over me like yog obsesses over you I'll be very very happy.

As for me. I need to look into some more people since besides Book#2 and a slight suspicion of Leonard I'm kinda dry on reads. JMich has been unusually quiet (game topic wise) and we're quite far into the game and so far HSL has asked a lot of questions but the percentage of questions asked by him and asked to him is highly disproportionate.

I've been thinking, why is it more likely that HijacK's use of commuter is the cause of no NK, than just a good choice by the role blocker or doctor (assuming they are present)?

As I have stated before, it is not. I just trust my instincts and skills over some roles I don't even know if they are present. Go to the claim post for more reference.

@yogsloth
Honestly, I'm not ruling out that I've got everything completely wrong, I'm just going with my gut and the things I've noticed that are off. I'm in no way stuck on voting for you and could be swayed to vote otherwise if people would just make some damn arguments. We've just had about three pages worth of posts off the back of my suspicions of your bid and claim, I feel like everyone just reacts and no one puts forth anything new...

@Hyper
At first I did assume Doctor would be bid on, but considering my own bid and thoughts on bidding Doctor I wouldn't be surprised if others felt the same way, we all thought someone would bid on it and no one did.
Your arguments still boil down to 'just because' to me. What if all the town players thought Tracker was the most useful town role and that no one else would bid on it? It's easy to see that not every role might have bid on, yet you seem very certain this is not the case.


Oh, and CSPVG has confirmed, it was 6 I bid, not 8.

Hunh. I bid the same number (6).

You’re right, Hijack is one possibility. I see four possibilities for no NK:

#1 Scum targeted Hijack the night he used commuter
#2 Scum targeted someone who was protected by the doctor
#3 Scum was blocked by the roleblocker
#4 Scum did not kill anyone

#1 Hijack explained this one. This assumes Hijack is telling the truth. I tend to believe him. Hijack doesn’t risk anything by revealing at this point, his power is spent. With Hijack’s claim, the remaining options are not as certain now, just other possibilities.

#2 If the doctor protected the target, I would not expect the doctor to say so. It does not give us information on scum. It would make the doctor an almost certain NK target and remove a useful power from the game. The fact that it could be one of the other scenarios makes the doctor claim more risky.

#3 If scum was blocked by the roleblocker, one of three possibilities exist
a. The rolebocker used both shots last night
b. The rolebloecker used the first shot last night
c. The roleblocker used the second shot last night (first used on an earlier night)

If either a. or c. is true, the roleblocker should have claimed by now. If b. is true, that’s trickier. The roleblocker would not be certain that the block did the trick. It could be one of the other scenarios. I am curious to know what other’s think the roleblocker should do in this instance: claim today or wait? I can see arguments for both sides.

#4 If scum did not kill anyone, perhaps they are hoping someone will claim. It's all WIFO.

If I’m missing a reason, I’m sure someone will point it out.

There is one risk: he's declared that he is unable to self-dodge a NK.

That leads to one variation on this scenario: Hijack merely claimed to use commuter last night, while he did not in fact do so because he plans to commute tonight, hoping to both draw and dodge a NK. This variation is implausible regardless of alignment: if scum, he has no need to pull such a ploy. If town, then it requires him to lie, which is pretty certain to get him lynched if/when people find out.

I've already stated I'm in favor of a mass claim at this point. I wouldn't want the role blocker to lead such a claim (as stated, I'd want anyone who is going to claim vanilla to go first). I'm not seeing much in the way of buy-in for a mass claim, though.

I don't see the point of a mass claim. We get information from the tracker (maybe). We might get something from the roleblocker, and we find out who the doctor protected last night. We would get role cop results too, but that doesn't help us determine anyone's alinment, unless they are lying. That seems unlikely though, as they gain nothing from it. That's assuming all those roles are in the game.
Scum however gain plenty of nice targets for the NK.

Enh, I'm kind of ambivalent about it.

I don't think scum benefit much more from getting "nice targets". They know who the Town players are, and with three players claiming no (or no more) power, they can already figure it out for themselves.

Whereas if there is a mass claim, all learned information goes on the table now and we can use it in later days to backtrack and out the liars.

But if we did do a mass role claim and that led directly to an important role getting snuffed, yeah, it would suck.

I still like my "number claim" idea.

At this point, I'm back to feeling like we need some people to just shut up and vote - but we have the usual suspects who simply won't. At least JMich is on the table. Otherwise here we are, just spinning and spinning.

Pretty much this. If all roles are in the game, then all scum have to do is pick someone that hasn't claimed vanilla and they'll kill a role.

Since role blocker hasn't claimed yet, I'm guessing he has at least one shot left. Same with Tracker. That means with a mass claim, scum have to out-guess doctor and role blocker to hit one of those two or Tracker (assuming doc and RB are town), and those are probably the 3 most valuable roles to hit.

I'm not letting today slip by with zero posts occurring at all.

I used Adalia's vote counting script from the admin thread, then went through to try and make a list of all of the

votes. There may be errors; I found at least one vote I missed when checking the Day 3 lynch list in CSPVG's post

against who I had voting. Compiling this took close to an hour, and I didn't do much beyond scan for "vote" and

"unvote".

If I happened to notice something while scanning, I made a note of it.

===================
I had to make two adjustments to the script. 1) Put in the correct thread name. 2) Put in the correct number of pages.
Here's the script I finished with:
jQuery('.spot_h').remove()
for (var i = 58; i > 0; i--)
{
var threadURL = "/forum/general/gog_forum_mafia_27_gameshow_showdown_the_game/page" + i + " .spot_h"
var $newdiv = $( "<div class='page" + i + "posts'/>" )
$( ".list_h" ).prepend($newdiv)
$( ".page" + i + "posts").load(threadURL, function() {
jQuery.expr[':'].Contains = function(a, i, m) {
return jQuery(a).text().toUpperCase()
.indexOf(m[3].toUpperCase()) >= 0;
};
jQuery('.post_text_c:not(:has(span.bold:Contains(vote)))').parents('.spot_h').remove();
})
}
===================

Vote list format:
x; A -> B
x; A / B
x; A / B, -> C

Legend:
x = post number
A = Person that is voting or unvoting
B, C = Person that is being voted/unvoted
-> = "votes for"
/ = "unvotes for"

So "123; Alice / Bob, -> Charlie" translates to "In post 123, Alice unvotes Bob, then votes Charlie".


Vote List (Note: I tried to skip any RVS vote/unvote)

Day 1
10; Lift -> Hijack
13; Trent -> Yog
14; AFP -> Trent
24; AFP / Trent
56; Wyrm -> Flub
*63; Leonard ->? Wyrm [Looks like RVS, but is it? Note Flub's vote in two posts]
65; Flub -> Wyrm
68; Lift / Hijack, -> Wyrm [Scum blunder concern]
70; Lift / Wyrm, -> Hijack [concern relieved]
81; Leonard / Wyrm [Possible RVS removal]
116; Hijack -> Lift
118; Yog -> JMich [Start of the shrine building]
150; AFP -> JMich
172; Leonard -> Yog [Also notes book and yog might be same alignment]
180; Robb -> Yog [because Yog downplays doctor]
191; Flub / Wyrm, -> Robb
203; Wyrm / Flub
208; Robb / Yog [Mistake pointed out, retracts vote]
215; Lift / Hijack, -> Robb
217; Yog / JMich, -> Robb
221; AFP / JMich, -> Robb
235; cris -> Robb
244; AFP / Robb
251; Yog / Robb, -> JMich
257; AFP -> JMich
269; Robb -> Yog
270; Lift / Robb, -> Leonard
286; Lift / Leonard
287; Trent / Yog, -> Robb
293; Lift -> AFP
294; Wyrm -> Sage [Start of a pattern]
303; Hijack / Lift, -> Sage
310; AFP -> Leonard
315; Robb / Yog, -> AFP
317; Adalia -> AFP
323; AFP / JMich, -> Leonard
330; Sage -> Robb
331; Yog / JMich, -> AFP
347; HSL -> Sage
356; Leonard / Yog, -> AFP
358; cris / Robb, -> AFP
364; Trent / Robb, -> HSL [random.org]
376; Trent / HSL, -> AFP [Note to self: references HSL asking about soft claims]
383; Trent / AFP, -> Yog
396; AFP / Leonard, -> Yog
418; Sage / Robb, -> AFP
427; JMich -> AFP [Hammer time]
AFP dies => Lift, Robb, Adalia, Yog, Leonard, cris, Sage, JMich
Trent dies => Night kill

Day 2
466; Leonard -> Yog
475; Flub -> Sage
477; Adalia -> Sage
478; Lift -> HSL [Anti-lurk vote?]
488; Lift / HSL [Anti-lurk vote]

[Note: At this point, I realized I needed to update the page number for Adalia's script (I only had the first 25

pages). I re-ran the script after making that update, then picked up with the post I left off. I didn't try to verify

the previous work, but I'm confident there were no mistakes because of this script update.]

503; Wyrm -> Sage
508; Yog -> JMich [surprise, right?]
509; Lift -> Sage
511; Hijack -> Sage
535; Robb -> Sage
544; Lift / Sage [stopping a sudden death because of L-1]
560; Adalia / Sage
566; Adalia -> Yog
582; Lift -> Flub
592; Yog / JMich [oh snap!]
611; Hijack / Sage, -> Flub
613; Flub / Sage [threatens vote on Hijack, but doesn't vote]
616; Wyrm / Sage
632; Yog -> Flub
638; Adalia / Yog, -> Flub
649; cris -> Yog
651; Flub -> Sage
[Robb asks for replacement somewhere in here]
674; Wyrm -> Flub
685; Leonard / Yog, -> Sage
691; cris / Yog, -> Flub
714; Leonard / Sage, -> Flub [Hammer time]
Flub dies => Lift, Hijack, Yog, Adalia, Wyrm, cris, Leonard
Lift dies => Night kill

[Note: Search "hamster" to get to CSPVG's post detailing Flub's death (end of day 2)]
Vitek replaced Robb near end of Day 2. Vitek's first vote post shows up on Day 3. He only voted sleepiness, but vote failed.

Day 3
734; Yog -> Wyrm [anti-lurk vote]
749; Yog / Wyrm, -> JMich
751; Wyrm -> Sage
763; Adalia -> Sage
810; Wyrm / Sage, -> HSL [anti-lurk vote]
813; Leonard -> Vitek [Note: I missed this one at first, and had to go back after reading CSPVG's vote tally during

Vitek's death scene.]
829; Hijack -> Leonard
852; cris -> Vitek
880; Wyrm / HSL, -> Sage
916; Sage -> Vitek
921; Vitek -> Sage [says "See you in hell". Perhaps more prophetic than he thought]
926; Sage / Vitek, -> Sage
953; Wyrm / Sage, -> Vitek [trying to pull Yog to a wagon that might work]
954; Yog / JMich, -> Vitek [obliges]
957; Sage / Sage, -> Vikek [yog was persuasive]
958; Wyrm / Vitek, -> Sage
960; JMich -> Sage
971; HSL -> Vitek
972; Wyrm / Sage, -> Vitek [Hammer time]
Vitek dies => Leonard, cris, Yog, Sage, HSL, Wyrm
Sage dies => Vitek uses Vanilla Vengeful to kill Sage
NO NK

Day 4
1028; Yog -> JMich
1039; JMich -> Yog [Challenge accepted]
1106; Adalia -> Yog
1136; Hijack -> Wyrm

Well.. that's all very interesting, but did you actually draw any conclusions from it?

The only thing of interest I noticed was that we've all been involved in the lynch of a townie bar HijacK, and we were all on flub's wagon bar JMich and HSL.
Does that mean HijacK is scum and has avoided getting his hands dirty with town lynches? Doubtful.
Does it mean that JMich and HSL were flub's buddies and that's why they never voted on him? Entirely possible but maybe a bit obvious.
Is anyone ever going to put forth an opinion or argument or vote again? Who knows.

Step one was to get it listed. I'm working on analysis, but the child woke up.

While going through it, I'm concerned about Leonard, Hijack, and you. I plan to have reasons posted later tonight; I'm trying to keep the child from calling anyone on my phone.