Meeting coming up here. 10 minute timer over.

Anyway, as I was saying:

"As a scenario analysis, it's at least possible there are two factions, though adalia flipping scum would tend to cast significant doubt on that. Possible, yes, but plausible?"

The corollary to that is that if it's not a multi-faction setup beyond the usual town+scum+random neutrals (still my own working assumption), then town at least appears to be in good shape based on P1na's flip. Running off on random gut checks might work if we have good guts, or it might backfire. Thinking of it as chess, I think the advantage of adalia is that we get a couple of things to work with even if we're wrong. At worst we're sacrificing a piece with an end in mind.

But if you want to shake some other trees and see if something significant falls out, I have no issue with that. The concern is that people (and perhaps moreso scum) tend to vote based on momentum. A mistake that gives us something is still useful, a mistake that gives us little/nothing is just a mistake.

I've said my peace, and am content to watch what develops.

So, I went back to re-read on Leonard03.

In his post#224 he replies to a comment yogsloth made (post #223), then claims to not know if it was specifically addressed to him as per his reply to dedoporno (post #253). More interestingly, in that same post, he says that he'd vote yogsloth to avoid No-Lynch, but he was looking for more likely targets, a choice of wording JMich pointed out (post #303).

When asked about it by Bookwyrm627 (post #300) he replied with "watching and waiting" (post #328), and when asked about that one by dedoporno (post #366) he said "watching and waiting for slips, mistakes, strange behaviour...etc." (post #380). I commented on this in my post #431, as it stood out to me back then. But even if it was not a way to shield himself, at the very least it was an admission of no intention to actively partake in scum-hunting, and see if he could provoke such slips, mistakes, etc..

In that same post #328, he suggests it'd be better to "try and figure what yogsloth's plan is", but he himself has no "ideas yet". Reading his later posts, he never had any ideas at any point, but seemed interested in keeping the focus on the discussion around the possible roles yogsloth may or may not have (post #349), and later in his post #406 he seems quite interested in also keeping the discussion about game mechanics going. Two discussions, he doesn't actively partake in.

In his post #462 he comes back to the subject of No-Lynch, stating how Ixamyakxim's vote on drealmer7 takes us nowhere, but would vote P1na to avoid No-Lynch. And then goes and votes Krypsyn, who had exactly zero votes on him at that point, because he needed to put a vote out there. Kind of sounds like he wanted to be on record as voting.

When P1na reached L-1, and after saying that he doesn't think that P1na's scummier than Krypsyn (post #524), he points out in his post [url=https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_32_booze_blood_and_bullets_the_prohibitionin his post527]#527[/url] that adaliabooks was also looking for a drink (which feels completely out of place given the time and state we were at; perhaps an attempt at changing our view on P1na?), and then goes to re-evaluate his vote and ends up on flubbucket (post #529) who at that point had only P1na's joke-vote on him, because he was "tryin to stop us from a mislynch" (post #558). What's interesting to me, is that he says that flubbucket and Krypsyn were better lynches, but "Too late for that now though", when he never made a real effort to get people to look their way and try to build a wagon on them when there was time for it.

His D2 posts consist mostly of explaining himself about his stance on P1na. Other than that, he's asked Ixamyakxim one question (post #610), mentioned the push for adaliabooks wagon, but needs some re-reading before deciding to join it (post #756), restatied how against No-Lynch he is (post #773) and entertained us plenty with his doodles.

So, for someone that repeatedly stated that he's against a No-Lynch, and wants to steer us away from a mis-lynch, he's done next to nth to achieve any of the two. I'm not convinced he was really thrown off by P1na's play; with everything else, I'm leaning towards he was avoiding to be on a scum-buddy's wagon, but be on record for voting someone he thought was suspicious, in an attempt to make it less obvious. Additionally, he's done nth to help us scum-hunt, while expressing interest in keeping discussions alive that traditionally are more beneficial to mafia than town on D1.

One other thing I've noticed is that he seems to come on when he either has very little to no time or is too tired to do anything game-related. I may be reading too much into this, but it stood out to me how many of his posts end with something along these lines.

From what I recall from the game he and I were in, where he was town, he wasn't all that much active, but was at least a bit more involved, which is not what I get this game.

I see upon refresh that he got a couple more votes in the meantime. Very interested to hear from Leonard03, and from others about Leonard03.



Would you care to elaborate?

Many things you say make at least some sense to me, but you took a detour here and lost me. How does Adalia flipping scum cast significant doubt on dual (duel?) scum factions? It wouldn't be any kind of assurance by any means, but I don't see why it would cast additional doubt beyond the standard "normally there aren't two factions".

This is nagging me.

I feel like I'm in a room with people conversing and suddenly realize the people around me are talking about NAMBLA.

How the hell did this get started??

Bookwyrm and dedo are Scum. But they're not on the same team as P1na and adalia. They've been fencing with each other all Day. dedo thinks they have identical roles among the two teams. Leonard is on one team, but don't know which, presumably adalia's. At least one more mafia is among the lurkers.

That about the sum of it, gentlemen?

Right.

Yes, I talked to him all day long. Didn't do anything else, really. Wait, what?

What is NAMBLA?

Oops, I guess Yog found us out.

Related observations, so I'll address both at once. I'm not sure what others are seeing, so consider me an agnostic on the question. I've tried to entertain both even if I'm skeptical. I'm recommending strategic action on the one that seems more likely to me.

Perhaps there's something else driving the "multiple factions theory," but the heart of it to date seems to be the two claimed and mirroring night actions.

Adalia and Hijack both claimed pieces of the action first, and then ultimately corroborated each other. Hijack was first to claim the one thing scum at least were less likely to know: the flavor of how it was experienced. Everything adalia has claimed could have been known if he were the blocker/jailer, or on the same team as the blocker jailer.

If adalia flips scum, it's possible the entirety of his claim is bogus and there's no 2nd blocker/jailer at all. Now, does it entirely rule out two factions? No, but it would at least call into question the main (if not only) piece of evidence leading us down that road.

If adalia flips town, then we have pretty good evidence there were two actions, whether or not it confirms any implications of that.

I hope it's not this.



That's quite the bomb, sir. Is this what you meant in your post #704? Are you saying they're on the same mafia team? Will you elaborate?

Looks like I have to do a proper re-read myself.

I know, right? It's interesting, though. But yes, do that re-read.

I certainly hope not!

My prior post was mostly a response to wyrm's #799, and only secondarily a response to krypsyn. Somehow his quote ran away. Sorry about that.

Not sure I follow that bolded part. I re-read Leonard over N1, and almost all of it again last night. I absolutely agree he's not scum-hunting.

Not sure what he is doing, but I didn't read most of what you describe to be as nefarious as you did, as much as it seemed like an attempt to be present without being present - that he wasn't really concerned if yogs or P1na were the lynch either way. Whether or not he was surprised that P1na flipped scum, I did get the sense he wasn't particularly invested in what the flip would say beyond how it reflected on him. Likewise, looks to me like he was inquiring about yog's claim without being actually concerned. Same for piling on wyrm's question to Ix and then ghosting.

Unless one assumes yogs/p1na/Leonard are all a team, in theory scum Leonard D1 should have liked at least one of those targets a lot, right? But he stayed off both. That gives me pause.

"Target" could be a slip (I just used it myself without really thinking about it), though "scum hunting" as a metaphor points to "targets" to some extent as well, doesn't it?

He's in my top 3, no question (though probably #3). I am a bit reminded that in #28 he was lurking up the dickens, we pressured him, and he just kept lurking. Eventually he claimed and was toast as a policy lynch (town nexus). The one role where he excelled was neutral survivor, and while his voting makes me pretty sure that's not what he is as a role, it does seem that survival is his end, for whatever reason. Scum, power role trying to not be a target to anyone, town vanilla who's confused and waiting for someone to bring investigative detail to the table, neutral whatever, IDK.

Will I vote him to avoid no lynch? At least based on what's on the table, yes. I'm not holding my breath that "pressure" will clarify his alignment, but am happy to be proved wrong.

That said, I do find your play a bit out of character. Your questions to adalia were in keeping, except that you were, as you yourself note, "tunnel visioned." Which I'd also hinted at in my vote for adalia.

Now someone gets you looking at Leonard and instead of going at him in your normal fashion, you've made a "grand analysis," which certainly is something I would do, so I'm not pointing fingers that someone would do it. It just feels a bit...surprising...of a swing coming from you. I would have expected you to use your insights to cross-examine him before eventually making a hard case. Laying it out in advance as you did seems more like a play to convince others.

It's sort of a Boy Club.

Winner Winner!!!!