Actually, silly me, I'm voting baz so I can prevent a quick lynch.
Unvote

Still crafting post.

Well, I'll post here so you don't DP

I did say you should beware of what you write, for it will be used against you. Also, you're getting quite defensive, but I am willing to give you leniency on that, since you're very close to a lynch. But that it's a reaction to Al1's post is just strange. If you're clowning, why do it so inconsistently?

Nmillar's 301 (and some earlier posts by Robbeasy and others) inspired me to update my vote count spreadsheet. So I did some vote analysis of D1 so far, and here's something potentially damning, though it may be more something to keep watch of for future days. It's not strong enough to change my vote yet because I do think Baz is Mafia, and I have only done a partial post analysis of the person. But it's not always whom they vote for as when they choose to vote for the person and hop on the wagon, so to speak, that can be very telling.

The following votecounts are from my spreadsheet, not Damuna, and are unofficial.

FoS: Ubivis

First bandwagon: Zchinque. Azarr votes him in #26, Baz in #46, and this at this point the first 2-long bandwagon in the game (there are two others that are 1-long).

After post 52, the votecount looked like this:
Zchinque - 2 - Azarr, basilisek
bazilizek - 1 - Pazzer
Al1 - 1 - Zchinque

Ubivis is the next voter, in [http://www.gog.com/en/forum/general/gog_mafia_2_sweet_gogville_high/post53]#53[/url], to hop on to make it 3-long. It becomes 4-long in #111 when Typhoon votes, 5 long when Robbeasy votes, so Ubi seems unsure, jumps off a bit () then back on again ([url=http://www.gog.com/en/forum/general/gog_mafia_2_sweet_gogville_high/post175]#175).

The only voting post in between was me starting the baz bandwagon (#168). Then when Robbeasy jumps off at #178 to vote baz, nmillar follows on baz in #179, and this is what the vote count looks like after that.

After post 180, the votecount looked like this:
Zchinque - 4 - Azarr, bazilisek, Typhoon45, Ubivis
bazilisek - 3 - jesskitten, Robbeasy, nmillar
Al1 - 2 - Zchinque, enterprise2004

Suddenly Ubivis jumps off Zchinque's wagon again at . This could be trying to bail out of a failing bandwagon, closely followed by baz at #187. Tellingly, Ubivis does not get onto baz's wagon. He also claims in #181 that he will sit down and come up with his final decision, which while isn't accurate since he does change votes later (and is well entitled to do so), is a strange viewpoint for a townie who isn't aware of other peoples' alignments to have.

Fast forward to post 235. Where baz is in trouble, so he tries to restart the wagon on Typhoon. After post 234, the votecount looked like this:
bazilisek - 4 - jesskitten, Robbeasy, Damnation, enterprise2004
Azarr - 1 - nmillar

In #235, baz votes Typhoon (Ty: 1), and Damnation unvotes baz (baz: 3) and follows in #237 (Ty: 2). Now instead of a 4-long wagon, there is a 2-long and a 3-long one, and so Ubivis votes Typhoon (#238) to make both wagons 3-long, and offer an alternate wagon to the baz one (in theory, if they're both scum).

Fast forward to post 280, where Typhoon is on L-1, just before Robbeasy unvotes him so he doesn't get to quick lynch.
After post 280, the votecount looked like this:
Typhoon45 - 6 - bazilisek, Damnation, Ubivis, Azarr, Pazzer, Robbeasy
bazilisek - 3 - jesskitten, Enterprise2004, Typhoon45
Azarr - 1 - nmillar

Robbeasy unvotes in #281, and Typhoon claims, then after the claim Damnation unvotes in #296, and Ubivis in #297. Of course at this point everyone's unvoting because he's a claimed power role, so that in itself isn't scummy (although it is a bit weird both his vote and unvote on Typhoon follow 1 post immediately after Damnation. Likely just random coincidence that both are exactly back to back posts.)

The exchange between nmillar and him is enlightening though,

#297:
#298:
#299:
This post already struck me as scummy or an incredible townie gambit. Why did he claim? He had 0 votes on him. It smacked of a panicked move there just because a finger was pointed his way. But if you look at the other bit of the post #299, this question arises: Why didn't he vote immediately but had to wait for prompting, before then voting his other main suspect, which also happened to be on nmillar's list? If he only had one other main suspect it should have been automatic.

A possible reason was that they are scumpartners but he didn't want to encourage the wagon, but figured once nmillar called him out that it was better to gain town cred for himself, since Typhoon's wagon was deflating and there was no other wagon for miles, so he hopped onto the convenient bandwagon. IF true, this is bussing.

Also note here that in #297 Ubi says we'll find out if Typhoon is innocent by tomorrow, and in #299 suddenly he has "knowledge of Typhoons innocence". It could be just a phrasing thing (especially since other people have been mislynched in other games for such things ><) or language thing, but nonetheless suspicious phrasing.

Anyway that made him the 4th person to jump onto the bandwagon. Nice and secure in the middle.

Lastly, Ubivis says in #226 that:
when he was giving his reads. He mentions in #238 when he votes Typhoon that "I think Typhoon is more suspicious than bazilisek", when commenting on the two big bandwagons at the time. But I don't see at what point between #226, and #284/#299 when he claims both are suspicious/his main suspects, that his read on baz changes.

tl;dr
All this is partly an extension of what others have mentioned already abouyt voting patterns. I don't know yet if that all together makes him scum, but I propose that if bazilisek flips scum, pay very close attention to Ubivis. They have been voting as a bloc together all game, and Ubivis passed on voting baz when there was a bandwagon on him, instead staying with no vote between his #181 unvote on Zchinque, and #238 vote on Typhoon, so he did not think baz was vote-worthy suspicious before voting Typhoon. bazilisek had 3-4 votes on him in that time period and Typhoon had none until #235.

If they both turn out to be scum, lynch Azarr. His voting patterns have been for the exact same people, although it's a much weaker case.

Ok that's it. I'd say to lynch baz today anyway, for better or for worse. So my vote goes back to where it was:
vote bazilisek

-------

It's been over 20 minutes, hopefully this doesn't merge. I believe the merge point is 15 minutes, if not my apologies.

Little mistakes
- Bad formatting in that one link. Link still seems to work.
- Ubi unvoted in #133 not #132. (link points to the wrong post just before, doh).
- Suddenly Ubivis jumps off Zchinque's wagon again at #181. The #181 got left out.
- The off and on on Zch's wagon on #175 is a little wishy-washy, because he hopped back on so soon, though he did claim he had a good day's rest to think it over, so fair enough. It's a weak scumtell at best.

@baz I agree with you on one thing, I think the evidence from the bits of RP in the front section can be dubious. However, I've been curious for a bit, and you don't have to explain this, but I didn't quite get what you meant in #19 about having a medical condition. May want to explain post-game if not now if you don't mind, and if it doesn't become obvious or anything. :P

If you are town, and if you are about to get lynched (I encourage everyone to make up their own minds though and not just randomly agree): would you mind please listing your town/scum reads? So if you flip town we can work on those. A confirmed townie's viewpoints will help a ton as well. Thanks.

That......

...is some analysis work, right there!! Makes me feel ashamed, I'm mostly going by whats in my head and from what I remember, although I do go back and reread posts a lot to try and get other angles on suspicious people.

I like it - suspicious voting patterns indeed! So if Bazilisek turns up scum, Ubivis is in a tight spot.

I still think Bazilisek is primo suspecto - even more so, as little bits of evidence like this sterling bit of detective work from Jess start to mount up.

Plus the happy bonus of possibly turning up another prime suspect (Ubivis) should we be proved right and Baz is scum.

I'm almost as good as dead now, so hear my last will and testament:

-- Jesskitten, I like your dedication. It makes me feel sort of bad that the post you were writing for so long is built on a premise that will be (probably) soon shown to be untrue.

-- At this point, my chief suspects are nmillar and Azarr. The third? No idea. Probably AI1. Where did he disappear to, anyway? However, I fully acknowledge that basing your suspicions on mine is probably not a good idea, considering my past performance.

-- For some time now, I have been convinced that Zchinque is, despite all I said before, one of the good guys (which makes both of my bandwagons wrong, and for that, I sort of deserve to be lynched, don't I?). Primarily because there were ample opportunities for him to get me lynched, most notably right now, and he never did it. Which implies he is reading me correctly and doesn't want me lynched. Which implies town. Pure and simple.

So, there it is. I hang my pom-poms in shame and wait for what happens next.

You seem to be missing a post number there, just thought I'd point it out ;)
Now for something more serious.

I hope it's coincidence. Or perhaps, if Ubivis is mafia, he could be attempting to use me as a leaning, as in hoping that if he flips mafia if lynched, people might pick that up as incriminating evidence against me.

I do think this is just a phrasing issue - Ubivis has struck me as having a bit different phrasing than most people in this game, so I wouldn't pick that much up on that one.

I think you bring out some very, very solid points here, and quite strong evidence for, at least some mafia correspondence. I had some suspecions of you, jesskitten, but consider those gone, this is very well seen.

I do think that there is one factor that could be considered, however. It could seem that it is not necessarily all those three you mention that are mafia - perhaps Azarr and Ubivis are following baz, who is (in this hypothesis) an innocent townie that they just wish gone because of some of the slips he made early on, and because his voting pattern was easy to follow and not worth of scrutiny, until it was picked up that they were nearly identical?
What I mean is that, should baz turn up townie, I still think we should keep our eyes on both Ubivis and Azarr.

And to those of you wondering why I am not voting baz, it's because I am not completely convinced at this moment. At least not enough to hammer him. jesskitter's newest post makes me more inclined to vote for Ubivis, so
vote Ubivis

I doubt it might lead that far casting a vote on him today, but jesskitten's post might sway people to take a different approach to the new conspiracy theory (Sorry I call it that, but we cannot call it set in stone just yet)

Addendum: didn't see this before I started writing the previous post. There is an explanation for the medical condition thing; it was pure role-playing on my part, but I don't think I'm allowed to, nor should, share the details now. But it has no relevance to the game itself, you can trust me on that. If you or I still remember it by the time we're both dead or the game ends, I'll tell you.

@Jess: What I'm going to say is not meant to discredit you or your analysis, I just feel that this is something that needs to be said, and now - following your long analysis - seems like a good time to do so.

Hear ye! Hear ye!
Long posts or posts filled with analysis does not mean that whoever made them is town. The mafia are fully capable of doing good analysis and construct good cases as well.
As said, this is not meant to discredit Jess in any way, I have just seen many times that players, in particular inexperienced players, automatically assumes that any long or content filled post means that the poster must be town.

Remember, a good townie always thinks for himself. Possibly herself.

Playing the Devil's advocate here, but it could also imply that I know your alignment, and don't want to get my hands dirty. Which implies scum.

That said, no, I don't want you lynched right now. It's a gut feeling, mostly, so it's not good for much. And I haven't slept for who knows how long, so my gut might be acting up.

I'm fairly certain that Ubilis is town.

Ok, then. I'm a former drug addict. And now you know all there is to know about me.

(Which is, incidentally, kind of fitting for someone responsible for the infamous "I was drunk" post.)

And very good point about the long posts, Zchinque. I consciously know that, but it's very easy to forget.

@Baz and Dam: I agree. I don't think the link is totally 100% there, so even if Baz flips town, Ubi may not be, like Damnation pointed out, Ubi and Azarr may be the ones going off of each other. Or it may have been just coincidence and they've been both kind of going along with the flow, though both of them did avoid casting votes on Baz (until recently).

Maybe it's Baz and Azarr and Ubi's an innocent in between. But he seemed more likely to me from the two. Azarr only does have two votes (and a conspicuous area in the middle of not voting) and it may be partly due to inactivity (in terms of compared to everyone else posting lots).

Hell maybe you're scum (or I am - but I know I'm not etc) and trying to push this mislynch of all 3 of them if all 3 actually turn up to be town, or trying to save fellow Baz-scum. ;) I doubt it, but the point being that there are too many possibilities without someone being lynched and someone else getting nightkilled so we have more info from confirmed alignments to work on. So hopefully even in that respect things like that post may help in the future. I do wonder if an Ubi flip would tell us more than Baz, though.

@Town, when we hit night, I'd suggest making a google doc or other spreadsheet of the votes, and/or making isolation posts of everyone in the thread (copy paste their posts somewhere where you can compare them with each other), if you have time and are bored. It will help a ton in future days.

@Zch #346

I agree, actually. Everyone should make their own decisions cause it's much harder for the Mafia to then follow along. And it can make one seem scummy later to have no real opinions or to be accused of flip flopping because of agreement with a long post. Keep eyes open, and I don't even care if you suspect me as long as you have good reasons to that I can address. for example.

I'd go so far as to say not to let any one player or topic dominate the town. I have a moderate town read on Zchinque at the moment, but I've seen crafty, experienced Mafia (or 3rd party) pull crazy gambits at the start of day 1 to draw attention to them, flip all the heat around to get a strong pro-town credibility, and coast to endgame that way.

It's all WIFOM too, since this directly contradicts with the Too Townie logical fallacy.

By the way, Jess, if you like reading mafia games, I suggest reading this one. It just might be the best mafia game ever. It's the Boatmurdered of mafia games.

Neat thanks I will! Oh, could I also get the link to that one with the scum mason buddy getting whatever role the town mason buddy faked (or whatever you mentioned earlier)? If you have it handy and if it's not that same one. Else no worry. :) Cheers.

Well, there is TheT3 who came late for start of both games and seemed eager to play. He even set up PM account. Try PM him maybe he'll join. If nobody comes I might be willing to join.