But one thing- you suspect Flub of being either a cultist or killer, but you find those two thoughts contradictory?
See. What I would expect from a cultist is :
1) At the start of the game, being unsure whether the recruit mecanism is well known, and possibly assuming that everyone's PM makes the game's recruit mecanism as explicit as their own's.
2) When realising that it is not obvious, then try to play along with the idea of traditional killing mafia as long as possible (without sounding too scummy).
And for some reason, Flubbucket went from "I think the YOLO SWAG of the black smurfs has the power to possibly recruit from the races already inhabiting the planet yes??"
(recruit mechanism in mind) to "Realistically though a 17 player game 25 to 33% of the base would be a 4 to 5 mafia team."
(without a thought for the cult possibility, even though it would mean "a smaller starting scum team
So this can very well be interpreted as a cultist realising that he can count on some ignorance of cultist presence, and going back to oooh-cultists-never-thought-of-that after a first (actually second) post that is explicit on this possibility.
BUT THEN, ON THE OTHER HAND,
What I would expect from a traditional killer is :
1) Trying to exploit the cult interpretation if it misleads townies into looking for less mafiosi and less spread infiltration, and into them being less able to analyse a player's history because of the assumption he may have been recruited mid-game.
2) Trying to ensure that such a misconception would last, and especially, would last beyond a first murder, even though (for balance issues) cultists generally aren't granted any killing power.
And there you have Flubbucket going "I'll bet there will be some killin' each night phase regardless"
I have two reasons to suspect Flubbucket, but one makes sense only if he's a cultist in a killer-less game, and the other only if he's a killer in a cultist-less game, and I don't think there can be a cultist+killer game. This is how my two causes for suspicion tend to cancel each others out...
Plus there is the nice recipe-for-bandwagon-reading, which comes a tad early in my opinion (shouldn't it be reminded/explained AFTER a bandwagon has grown, if it's supposed to be how-we-notice-scums ? is it supposed to help town beginners, or scum beginners ?).
All this makes the other player's unrelated reasons to suspect Flub quite interesting to me...