I somewhat agree with the backlash and refund effect, but the mainstream gamer will still be fooled with the "I'm sorry. We know we messed up. I hope you can forgive us," statement that is so common with publishers as of late. The worst part is that the dev team, the talented individuals that have to put up with these greedy publishers, are made to say sorry. Ubisoft's businessmen know that this apology will work and the mainstream gamer/hardcore fan will say "Aww! Don't be sorry. I forgive you. Just don't mess up again. I'll preorder your next game because you have clearly learned." Then these same people fall into the same trap, get angry, and feel pity again when the publisher says "Sorry, we didn't mean it."
It's a vicious cycle that allows businessmen to laugh their way to the bank. In this day and age, gamers have taught publishers "You don't have to try to make good games. You don't need to have much content in the game. Hell, you can cut content straight from the disc and resell it to us. You can lie to us blatantly with your marketing campaign vs final product. As long as you market it to us right, we will preorder it. In fact, market it well enough, and we'll pay you a fortune for some overpriced collector's edition which doesn't even include a season pass for future DLCs and Expansions." Publishers have seen this and have responded adequately (even if you and I don't like it).
"If you can market it properly, yes little Tommy, even you can sell a game with both UPlay and GFWL, a game that doesn't work for paying customers for weeks, sometimes months after launch, while pirates play it unscathed."
-Essentially the modern publisher hivemind.