It seems that you're using an outdated browser. Some things may not work as they should (or don't work at all).
We suggest you upgrade newer and better browser like: Chrome, Firefox, Internet Explorer or Opera

×
low rated
avatar
wpegg: No. You've twisted the conversation, I was never pontificating on right or wrong, I was trying to help you to understand why the link you'd posted with the implication there was injustice there, was in fact reasoned, and explaining my belief as to what their reasons were.
I got all that.....which is why I moved onto other aspects of that same topic....in part to get your personal thoughts on the matter.

(Also imo there was an injustice......reason or no reason)
Post edited April 08, 2020 by GameRager
avatar
GameRager: By facts I meant he showed news reports/articles/posts with information that can likely easily be verified or debunked with a bit of checking.
I don't consider anything verified unless I have first hand experience about it; an even then I don't trust myself in all situations.

Oh, and I would perhaps agree with you about that something isn't more or less true because it is shown in some source, if I believed in truth... but I don't, at least not in the same way you do.

However, when you are discussing about something being true or not, you are actually talking about probability of something being true or not. And that probability decreases if a source of information isn't considered trustworthy.
avatar
wpegg: Would it have been useful - maybe, but it's got to be through their channels, otherwise ......
......how else will someone in the contracting department get their backhander???
New news, I keep things short (as much as possible, there is lots to write about but I keep it to the essentials). Sorry for sounding a little bit too grim here, I still bring positive news.

It looks like that getting a tubercolosis vaccine may actually work against SARS-CoV-2, though its mostly scientifically unproven, but there are large indicators that vaccinated parts of the population may actually handle the virus much better to a much more significant degree. The cases of serious COVID-19 infected cases in countries that have forced a TB vaccine in recent times is 20 times less than it is actually projected. This is going to be tested in Germany right now in which nurses and doctors get a TB vaccine to see if it really works, considering that a lot of practicing doctors in germany were "unknowingly infected" already. Its also a huge indication why countries like india are actually still "functioning", considering that hundreds of thousands of people there must be dead by now as they're living so close together. This is most likely because they vaccinated their population since 2015.

The "Heinsberg study" I've written previously about has seen a partial release. The real deal ain't out yet. Heres some info.

- In a small city of 6500 people, a little over 1000 people were infected. Right now data of 500 people have been compiled.
- The study already proves that SARS-CoV-2 has a extremly high community spread. This means that if your neighbour has it, the chances are extremly high that you will get it as well. The virus primarily "transfers" through people talking close at each other.
- All people who were infected by the SARS-CoV-2 and went through COVID-19 became immune to it, like any regular illness.
- So far, no (AFAIK, can change if study is fully released) active virus loads on surfaces that are not cleaned regulary. Still, regular (non excessive) hand washing rules are important so not much active virus throughout your day can enter your body. If there is fresh air pumped through your home even gathered (dead) RNA loads were pretty dim. This proves that grocery shopping is safe because the risk of smear infections are fairly slim and the ventilation kills off this coronavirus-type. So as long as nobody who is infected sneezes on the bread you're buying you're safe. This also means that facemaks mitigate this sort of risk, making stuff like shopping wholly save for everyone.
- Total death rate throughout the city is at 0.37 percent. Since they've asked the population of the entire city, the number of infected people compared to the people who've died seem to be the most accurate representation of infected/death cases so far (more so than chinas). This is most likely proof that the 7 - 3 percent fatality rate was way off. This also proves that PCR-tests are most important, because a lot of people actually don't know that they have this illness even during the process of COVID-19 (because the illness does seem extremly insignificant to them).
- Since the sample size of the city is low-population you can't wholly translate this to a metropolis such as New York. However, the number of 0.37 percent is a hard value that scientists can now compare further to other countries that also do extensive testings.

I'm no germany-praiser (its a fun pastime for everyone in germany to shit on the country they live) but I have to say that the extensive testing/surveying done here may safe millions of lives worldwide and thats pretty neat.

EDIT: I forgot to mention (it was only implied prior) that the virus load has huge importance on how COVID-19 progresses. Very mild symptoms are usually the cause of only a light virus load, like touching something and then picking your nose for a long time. While many severe cases are usually the result of very heavy virus loads (for instance, if you're a infected caretaker who talks face-to-face with an old person for a long time). Don't listen to any doctor who tells you that even catching one SARS-CoV-2 can be fatal for you, because this study (also common sense) also disproves this claim. What hugely matters is the degree of (common sense) hygene, good spirits (stress can count as a chronic illness by itself) and whether or not you're suffering from any other chronic illness at the moment.
Post edited April 10, 2020 by Dray2k
low rated
Auto-censorship

Please also erase quote of my posts.
Post edited April 26, 2020 by francksteel
avatar
timppu: So, before this thread gets locked down, any GOGgers diagnosed or highly suspected having gone through the corona infection already?
avatar
kai2: My entire family got sick the first week of January...

... started with a sore throat...

... then...

... low-grade temperature (101 degrees)...

... body and back aches...

... stuffy head...

... post-nasal drip...

... worsening cough...

... chest congestion...

... throwing up (in my case).

None of us went to the doctor, but at the time we all thought the illness was strange and not like any flu we had prior. Also, it lasted a very long time; I still had a cough one month later.

My brother on the other side of the country (NY) is currently having the same symptoms. Have also talked to many friends who had the same between January and February.

Completely anecdotal, but...

... it does seem likely this virus spread long before we were aware of the COVID-19 outbreak moving beyond China.
funny, i had the same thing, This all started after visiting an aunt who was retained in a hospital for a weird virus ( she ended up with a hole in her lungs ) Not sure if there is any connection but for a couple of weeks i was very ill. The cold or flu stayed a long time too, i did not trow up but it was already weird to be ill in that matter. Prolonged period of illness too, after a month i also still had a cough, i did went on with working and such but there were few others who experienced the same symptons outside this one girl who fell ill about the same time as me.

maybe this was more of a weird flu then anything else.

you hear a lot of talk how animal markets and other 'stuff' connected to underdeveloped area's in the world are so dangerous but with the flu spreading across the world every time our body resistance is low i belief we are in that area also very vulnerable. i mean it is only one infection away from mutating into something really dangerous
avatar
francksteel: 1# That's so much different of what we live in France. As if it was 2 differents viruses. No recent TB vaccine may explain that (don't know the figures for the different countries of Europe to have a hint of the plausibility)

Although, even if I take the figures you gave (0.37%), that would mean that in France around 5 millions people have already been infected, and that we could have more than 200 000 deaths. Still far more than a flu (around 10 000 per year)

2# How long this immunity lasts ? Any clue about that ?

3# Seems contradictory to me with the rest of the post. Why are there so much spreading in countries where social distancing and stay at home measures have already been made for more than 3 weeks now ?

There is also the case of the Charles de Gaulle, French Aircraft carrier. No contact with land since 15th march but 50 positives cases recently on it.

Incubation could be far more than a few days but to be counted in weeks ?
1# I would not think that 5 million people in France are infected, its probably around 500.000 at worst. Only a wide range of NAb testing can give closure during the month of May.

2# Hard to tell, I'd say 2 years (people who survived SARS had immunity for about 5 years). We already know that SARS-CoV-2 is about 33 times "stronger" than the flu if we consider general mortality rates. India does seem to be an total outlier. From the virus perspective its living in a paradise there (highest population per km² within the larger cities) but the infection rate does seem much lower and thats most likely because of the prior vaccines.

We know whether or not TB vaccination helped within the next month I'd say.

3# Not contradictory, measurements are at place to decrease r(n) rate by about half (hypothetically from about 2.2 to 1.1 at best.) Considering how it spreads around communities you also have to consider that denying spread through communities through physical distancing/basic hygene management measures means denying the virus access through person-to-person droplet spread on a local scale. Remember that this study is conducted on people who got infected before these general measures took place, so most people there as of today are already are already recovered and have antibodies or are at least very close to it.

Numbers of infected people are already going down all the time in France, just look at this for clarification and general projections as they seem mostly very accurate and based on statistically verifyable data.

Regarding the Charles de Gaulle case. First you have to consider that people inside an aircraft carrier live close together within a confined space. Even if there was one infected person throughout late feburary, entering such confined space could still result in spreading the virus, it will result in more people getting infected. And besides, was everyone working inside the Aircraft Carrier tested systematically? The next post consideres that this is not the case, so if the facts are different from what I'm speculating you can disregard most of it.

Here is how people spread the virus.

Virus enters your body, then incubation time within 2 days up to 16 days. 1.5 days before symptoms are signified, the virus can spread to other people. You lose your sense of taste and smell for a short while, then 4-7 days later this sense comes back. After that the second phase of the illness begins where the virus enters the lungs and the antibodies combat it (which can be compared to a very bad flu or a much less severe form of SARS-CoV). During that second phase, the virus will not exert out of your body, you cannot infect others during that phase.

So if one person got infected during the lets say 14th of march and then enters the confined space, chances are that it may take weeks for people to notice (up to early april). And after that period it may take a couple of weeks to notice that others might be infected as well. I can accurately say that at least 150 people on the aircraft carrier are infected (they don't notice this), considering the virus has a R(n) of about 2.2. The number is most likely higher, considering a lot of times this illness is not really noticed and only PCR and "next gen" NAb tests can give closure to that number.

Besides, from the antibodies standpoint, even if the human dies, the virus will always lose the fight. What matters here is the incubation period and the first phase, where the virus is highly infectious and must spread (which is why quarantaining is so important). And again, you can infect people 1.5 days before the illness begins, kinda like with the regular flu. At any case, this virus is fighting a losing battle.

Not only that, there are already types of medication that can completly halt the virus during the first phase (Avigan seems to be a safe bet, though there are side effects). What is only really dangerous is the second phase of the illness. If people can treat the first phase of the illness you can completely stop the virus from getting into the lungs. Pretty sure that with cases like special confined space ones people should threat these infected people with such medication before phase 2 of the illness begins.

To visualise infection spread as an abstract, look at the game of life for visualisation. White boxes = general populous while Black boxes = infected populous.

EDIT: Forgot a few things but not anymore :>! And sorry for writing so many "considerings", most of the stuff is not yet wholly objectively proven, though there are some objective qualities already. People are figuring out more and more regarding this illness. Not only that but I assume that mass vaccinations may already become available shortly before september this year if the pace of gathering knowledge and general testing (also general projects regarding experimental antibody testing in general) is any indication. This never happened before with such speed. This actually is 20 times or quicker than how usual medical research operates. Pretty sure that if things keep up, we may even find a cure regarding lung fibrosis within the next few years as there already is a cure for this but for mice and it still need human testing.
Post edited April 11, 2020 by Dray2k
Fear of GERMS - George Carlin (6:05)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_L6AS1Huno
Auto-censorship

Please also erase quote of my posts.
Post edited April 26, 2020 by francksteel
Certificate Of Vaccination ID?
avatar
francksteel: First, thanks for all your replies.

I don't understand : if there are "only" 500 000 infected in France, as we already have 15 000 deaths (maybe already 20 K, there seems to be many cases of deaths at home not already counted), that would mean a death rate of 15 000 / 500 000 = 3%, 10 times higher than 0.37%
Things like organization, preperation and age destribution regarding this pandemic is also something you have to put into consideration. Germany is an outlier because people prepared a whole month for this pandemic to happen (it also was the first country that embraced the whole "herd immunity" factor, though not lightly). Not only that but Germany basically "invented" european PCR testing as well and are the forerunners regarding any new scientific endeavor.

Personally I stick to the number of 500.000 people (or about 80-85% unnoticed) but the number can be in fact much higher and I can be wrong.

There is a model that considers that the numbers are in fact much higher than previously assumed.

Since this projection is almost two weeks old, it may mean that most population centres already archived herd immunity, Not only that but recent data gatherings suggest that about 85% of cases "slipped through" testing, because they were not considered testworthy subjects as they didn't showed any symptoms at all and they had to stay at home. You also can't just test millions of people at a daily basis.

In order to really understand the "true" number of infected people one country has to test the entirely of the population, which is impossible. And since those very "asymptomatic" (they're in reality just very mild cases) can still infect others, face masks should/must become mandantory. Because if you have this illness and you must sneeze, your droplets will be catched by the face mask instead of freely roaming around as a fine aerosol (even if you cough inside your elbow there will be a fine aerosol flying around). You don't even have to wear a proper one, I'd go so far and say that even holding a soft tissue before sneezing may work wonders.

There is a whole other problem that comes with this. Once this pandemic becomes endemic and people can start looking for ways to cure lung fibrosis, those who were trying to contain the virus like South Korea, China and Singapore are not immune to SARS-CoV-2, making direct contact with these people pretty much impossible. The western world basically became the equivalent of the mongolian horde. If we vaccinate people we must include the entirety of the human race or otherwise millions may becoming infected because of tourism, which is a nightmare for those asian countries.
Post edited April 11, 2020 by Dray2k
low rated
avatar
Mafwek: I don't consider anything verified unless I have first hand experience about it; an even then I don't trust myself in all situations.
By verified, I meant easily verifiable(or not) via a bit of checking(with regards to the articles-posts-info that video showed, I mean).

avatar
Mafwek: However, when you are discussing about something being true or not, you are actually talking about probability of something being true or not. And that probability decreases if a source of information isn't considered trustworthy.
Agreed somewhat, but it doesn't and shouldn't just go to zero probability if people whom others distrust post/mention it(and vice versa with stuff said by those others trust fully or near fully).
===========================================

avatar
Dray2k: New news, I keep things short (as much as possible, there is lots to write about but I keep it to the essentials). Sorry for sounding a little bit too grim here, I still bring positive news.
Thanks for this and post 163(that I read so far)....have added both to the OP post.

(I disgree somewhat with making vaccinations or face masks mandatory[by law I mean], though, as it goes against my principles......but I also agree with most of post 167 as well)
Post edited April 11, 2020 by GameRager
avatar
GameRager: Agreed somewhat, but it doesn't and shouldn't just go to zero probability if people whom others distrust post/mention it(and vice versa with stuff said by those others trust fully or near fully).
What should and/or shouldn't be is completely left to individual, including a question of trusting a source. And I am going to end it here.
low rated
avatar
falloutttt: Fear of GERMS - George Carlin (6:05)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_L6AS1Huno
Also added this to the OP post(George Carlin Always did know how to bring up important issues via comedy/etc)....thanks for this.
====================================

avatar
Mafwek: What should and/or shouldn't be is completely left to individual, including a question of trusting a source.
You're right....I was just trying to say people should try not to (though it's of course their call to make) "shut a source down" automatically in their minds due to biases against said source.

avatar
Mafwek: And I am going to end it here.
Fair enough....me as well...have a good one & thanks for posting.
Post edited April 11, 2020 by GameRager
low rated
avatar
rtcvb32: Certificate Of Vaccination ID?
Don't eat the chipz, man....don't eat the chipz? o.0