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kohlrak: The pattern i'm seeing right now is that the places that had outbreaks early on are safest at the moment. They reached herd immunity early, thanks to "peaceful" protests and hugging campaigns. Now the areas that weren't hit as bad (Rural areas, since they're the ones who overvalue certain holidays) are getting it hard, thanks to everything starting since Halloween. This was reflect in China, as well, when you normalize for Chinese New Year.
Yes, imo it's likely we might've all been better off(including less medical side issues like depression) if we isolated the vulnerable(and those who chose to do so) and let everyone else slowly build up herd immunity.

Also yeah, now we have new vaccines, but sadly also new mutations which the vaccines might not cover.
(of course hopefully some might be less lethal and/or have higher survivability & asymptomatic rates)

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kohlrak: Right, due to what i said above. I'm sure someone will ask for a source, but to ask for a source on this instead of using your head would be bad faith: the knowledge necessary to see the obvious pattern is basic highschool-level biology in the US.
The problem these days(in general, for many things) is that many seem to want to have the TV and such think for them, and do less thinking for themselves.
Post edited December 26, 2020 by GamezRanker
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rojimboo: I wouldn't be surprised if the same people who are against lockdowns are also against wearing masks - something that's 99.9% effective at blocking large particles.

In Europe we've been clearly told that if most people wore masks, then lockdowns or even targeted restrictions wouldn't be necessary. As in, if 95% of people wore masks instead of the actual 60%.
Nice strawman. But, by all means, sources please.

Since people will never be so sensible, lockdowns and more commonly targeted restrictions are necessary.
So they won't listen to order A, but surely they'll listen to order B whcih carries the same penalties. No, this just aggravates the populous, especially when you admit this isn't necessary because you're only doing it to apply more pressure.

But this is difficult to communicate to nationals of countries whose leadership is criminally incompetent and negligent, yet maintains popularity regardless. But hey, at least the anti-masker tiktok vids are funny.
If the "authorities" would stop at the sophistry, the double standards (the people who called for lockdowns also went out without masks to BLM protest), outright trying to hide information from the people, it would get better. The problem is, the average person is an individualist and rightfully so, but the governments are collectivist, and their arguments reflect a disrespect for individualism, to the degree of admitting dishonesty. The authorities aren't making arguments from individualism for collectivism, which is what you would expect a government of any level of integrity to do. Instead of treating the populace as the enemy,

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Niggles: Count in SYdney is at 116 (+ a handful.. cant find totals oddly) . 100 idiiots turning up at a beach on Xmas day had to be told to break up their gathering...apparently lot of backpackers.......Can't wait to see what the fallout is from all the people who party Xmas day and new years..........:/
They're still wrong about the uncubation period. It's about 2 weeks to a month, not 2 days to 2 weeks. This even the official information from China, once they actually started working with us instead of against us. I haven't checked if the info changed, but i doubt it. The whole big thing from the beginning was it couldn't be contained very well because of the incubation period and the higher than normal asymptomatic transmission. They keep treating it like it's a flu in the west, while saying it's not (and it isn't). They are prioritizing what's good for the corporations rather than what's good for the people, which is why it's been out of control. Give the damn people time off and let the corporations suffer for their understaffing. If they had more staff, they could survive all their employees taking 2 weeks off to recover, rather than bringing them back in a week (or less) when they're still in danger of dying of the damn thing. The experts tell us all kinds of things, but the policies fly in complete conflict of the advice, which only makes compliance less likely. All the covid-nay-sayers all cite the inconsistencies.

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kohlrak: The pattern i'm seeing right now is that the places that had outbreaks early on are safest at the moment. They reached herd immunity early, thanks to "peaceful" protests and hugging campaigns. Now the areas that weren't hit as bad (Rural areas, since they're the ones who overvalue certain holidays) are getting it hard, thanks to everything starting since Halloween. This was reflect in China, as well, when you normalize for Chinese New Year.
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GamezRanker: Yes, imo it's likely we might've all been better off(including less medical side issues like depression) if we isolated the vulnerable(and those who chose to do so) and let everyone else slowly build up herd immunity.
The problem is, we don't know who the vulnerable are, and, even still, they'll have different standards for people solely on age, which isn't the case. There are genetic dispositions that COVID hits harder (the people who say race is a social construct also say that COVID is racist, but that's a whole other kettle of fish: it's actually culturalist), since it focuses on the ACE2 receptor (and some people through lifestyle and genetic factors that we don't yet understand present more of these in more cellls). We've actually got a few examples of this in the thread: my girlfriend and Lionel212008 both have brain fog, which appears to be a rare symptom that appears as a result of a higher than usual ACE2 receptors in or around neurons which causes infections that damage the brain stem. Unfortunately, in some people, this is permanent, and those who are affected the most will actually die of cardiac arrest or even ARDS without the pneumonia component causing it. This alone affects people of all ages. My girlfriend's athesma was not even considered by her work place and she was placed on the COVID hall prior to presenting any symptoms of COVID (they threw her under the bus, basically), and she's currently beyond the normal recovery time and had to have a video call with a doctor to get a work excuse, 'cause she isn't exactly herself, still (and she would've been held liable for med-errors) and she can't even really drive right now. If it were just the elderly who were in danger, I'd agree, but this is not the case.

Also yeah, now we have new vaccines, but sadly also new mutations which the vaccines might not cover.
(of course hopefully some might be less lethal and/or have higher survivability & asymptomatic rates)
They're saying the new strains are more contagious and just as deadly. They're saying they're hoping the vaccines will work, 'cause, well, if not, we're in deep shit 'cause the original was bad enough. I can't imagine the people who got infected the first time getting any better, and imagine getting hit with both strains at the same time, along with influenza which is starting to go around. Your immune system would become too divided to function properly, regardless of what your age is. While, yes, it affects people who are older much harder, it's most definitely deadly to younger people. People in the range 20-30 are still dying, too, and it apppears to be initial viral load (how much you get before your immune system detects it and starts fighting it off) that predicts death: hispanics, who are most likely to hang out while asymptomatic (or even symptomatic) are dying disproportionately higher.

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kohlrak: Right, due to what i said above. I'm sure someone will ask for a source, but to ask for a source on this instead of using your head would be bad faith: the knowledge necessary to see the obvious pattern is basic highschool-level biology in the US.
The problem these days(in general, for many things) is that many seem to want to have the TV and such think for them, and do less thinking for themselves.
Absolutely. What mkaes things worse is the TV/Internet creates information silos. What's worse is, the people who are aware of this seem to pretend they're immune, even while presenting this. You can see this most heavily from the "we need lockdowns" and "masks don't work" crowds. Lockdowns and masks have somehow been attributed to one political identity, so everyone rallies around their poles. You're guilty of this, too.
Post edited December 26, 2020 by kohlrak
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Oh good, there's not much to respond to. This is the last time i'm responding to someone who's more interested in characterising me than they are on the topic at hand, in this thread. We adults have more important things to discuss.

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rojimboo: You asked for sources for my claim about mask efficacy and lockdowns that implied or outright stated that you either don't believe what I'm saying, or that you disagree with the assertions. I merely provided the sources - you can't just turn around and accuse me of a strawman for doing so. Also, I'm pretty sure at this stage of you accusing me of yet another strawman wrongly, that you have no clue actually what a strawman is. Later on you'll accuse me of yet another logical fallacy wrongly, which reinforces this fact. And by the way, this boring discussion is exactly what I was talking about when I mentioned 'boring'.
I was more focused on the conditional restrictions, but sure.
That completely ties into lockdowns and/or targeted restrictions, which is why I've on several occassions mentioned the importance of defining what we mean by a lockdown.
The term isn't exactly a medical term, so i can't imagine it came from doctors and the like. I know what the first thing i and everyone else around me thought when they heard the term, and also saw what the government was ordering: partial martial law. And the conditions were applied before we were even told to wear masks. I still remember the night and day change, and it wasn't just the United States: countries in the EU were doing the exact same things, from the "hug a chinese" campaign in Italy and across the US to suddenly "Yeah, you have to stay in doors or we're fiining you." I find it ironic we had to first prove we weren't racist, suddenly everything was shut down by order of a corrupt government. Then, finally, we got told that wearing masks was a good idea, after a total lack of masks, because for some reason the stores weren't selling them. If we cared more about facts rather than proving we're not an "-ist," maybe we wouldn't have the virus in this country to begin with. SARS-CoV-2 is the second time this happened, and the first time didn't turn into a pandemic.

What. Where on earth are you getting this from? Have you or your 'scientists' ever thought about correlating income, education and employment situation before succumbing to bogus race science??
I don't know what it's like in Finland, but there's a noticeable cultural difference between different groups of people, yet you cannot simply specify a culture like that. The closest indicator to culture is "race." We might not like that, but it is the truth. There are rich hispanics, and poor hispanics, and covid doesn't care what the differnce is. The metric is more reliable, no matter what our sensibilities are, but i'm glad the -ism is more important than peoples' lives to some people[/sarcasm].

If the fear of masks and lockdowns and preventative measures against COVID are greater than the fear of death, then something is seriously wrong, and the population has clearly succumbed to misinformation and propaganda and illiterate science. I wouldn't be surprised to be honest in some parts of the world.
I guess you don't remember the history of "Communism vs the Free world." Not only was there death, but death in some very horrific ways. Meanwhile, most people believe that COVID kills less people than dictatorships. Surprise, the governments of the world agreed when they let BLM and the like protest everywhere ignoring the lockdowns. Why would they be protesting during a deadly pandemic? Oh, yeah, because they believe the arm of the government (police) are more dangerous. Imagine my shock when "both sides" come to the same conclusion.
Where the hell are you getting martial law from? Why are you equating the two, lockdown and martial law? Since when has the WHO recommended martial law?
Sure as hell looked like attempts at martial law, to me. You have weaponized agents of the state (police and military) arresting and fining people for making the mistake of being out in public. I've heard some nasty things about Australia, too, but i haven't followed that country as closely so i don't know if the people getting ripped out of their cars by police were just one-off incidences or normal policy.
What exactly is the nature of this existential threat of mandating increased mask usage? What is this great evil you refer to? How can anyone in their right mind think it's worth dying for the alleged and completely wrongfully attributed restrictions on freedom to infect other people?
Go out and ask. As i pointed out, we have BLM and Antifa on the left (imagine being a BLM guy in your country flouting the lockdown rules over something that happened in the United States, which turned out not to be true, anyway), and on the other side we have people not caring now. By all means, take your pick and ask the people yourself. As many as there have been, i'm sure you personally have met some of these people in your life and not just through the computer screen.
Because if you're looking at examples of authoritarianism, look no further than your current administration and its incompetence at one of the biggest crises in modern history, directly resulting in (even more than usual) deaths, due to an all powerful emperor that gutted the CDC and neglects expert opinion.
Meanwhile everyone was afraid of being a racist, so he wasn't allowed to stop flights from China, which we now know would have been the de facto most effective thing that he could've done. And also, not have "hug a chinese person" campaigns. Yeah, sure, I blame the president.
Race science is completely bogus, especially in medicine. It is entirely a social construct, with no merit in medicine or biology. If you targeted African Americans with a drug, you'd suddenly find more efficacy with Japanese people, merely by accident. It's not only wholly racist, it's wholly unscientific.
For something bogus, it sure seems to be consistent. But, by all means, reject science.
Which hispanic gene is it that contributes to an increased mortality rate with covid? Which black gene is it then? Is it the non-existent gene that determines race? Because that's what it is - there is no gene common to black people or white people or even a cluster of genes that shows what race you are.
The genes in particular which afect skin tone: it's culture, not race. Meanwhile, the most reliable metric for identifying cultures is race, nothing else.
Time and time again the science illiterate bring up this supposed 'data' that can easily be analysed with linear regression and difference-in-difference analysis to attribute cause and bias, to ascertain the real effects of a dependent variable on an independent one. The truth is, everytime someone shouts "Black people are stupid" "Hispanic people are more prone to crime!" etc. it can be explained by non-racial socio-economic factors, that correlate far better than race.
Like i said, we can discuss that another time when those metrics are more useful. In the case of COVID, despite large portions of white people unemployed and the like, these same white people aren't dying. Turns out, race is more reliable. Crime is not COVID, and COVID doesn't seem to care about IQ or anything like that. Race is the winner on this one, regardless of the other measurable metrics.

Look man, it's Xmas, and I'm sure you don't mean all this race science nonsense. But arguing that covid measures are unnecessary or too strict in light of the rampant rates in say the US, with droves of people dying? How is that beneficial to anyone, or anywhere near honest? When exactly do you think 'strict' measures should be implemented, if not now? Aren't you basing all this off of misinformation that the (inept and corrupt ) current government is there to harm you in some way, by taking away your 'freedoms', freedoms like infecting other people and dying? Well I wouldn't worry too much - from what we know of your government, it will do fuck all and not lift a finger to help people.
Ok, things that look totalitarian are resulting in lower compliance, regardless of your position on the spectrum, but let's go full speed ahead on this anyway. Meanwhile, let's ignore the most reliable predictor for COVID death, because COVID is the same as incarceration or whatever?

Out of your book, please, it's Christmas, I'd like to focus on saving lives. People see government as a more dangerous threat than the bug, so maybe try working with the people instead of trying to simply control them. I'm more worried about what is practical than moral grandstanding. I've lost enough to COVID and government policies this year; I'd like to see an end to the things that put us in this position. We can talk about your moral compass when people aren't dying, OK?
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GamezRanker: Just wanted to say that i'm hoping everyone had a happy holiday season so far, and are staying safe and well.
I wouldn't get your hopes up too much. We're going to be feeling this 3 holiday chain until the end of January.
Post edited December 27, 2020 by kohlrak
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kohlrak: I wouldn't get your hopes up too much. We're going to be feeling this 3 holiday chain until the end of January.
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GamezRanker: Well seeing as the asymptomatic rate is high, hopefully most won't show any symptoms.
(of course I feel they should also try isolating as well...both to prevent others from getting sick if they now have it, to to prevent getting it if they don't have it yet)
The rate of asymptomatic cases will drop significantly due to higher initial viral load, due to the gatherings of these holidays. That's what caused all the problems in China: Chinese new year. Naturally our western nations hold christmas to a high regard, so it'll be where you get the least compliance. Halloween was bad, but wasn't the biggest. Thanksgiving is bigger, but imaging talking to an 9 year old that no one's coming for christmas to give them more presents. Most families are likely caving. We'll see the majority of the fallout in about 3 weeks ('cause new years, too, but that's more of a holiday for couples).
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kohlrak: The rate of asymptomatic cases will drop significantly due to higher initial viral load, due to the gatherings of these holidays. That's what caused all the problems in China: Chinese new year. Naturally our western nations hold christmas to a high regard, so it'll be where you get the least compliance. Halloween was bad, but wasn't the biggest. Thanksgiving is bigger, but imaging talking to an 9 year old that no one's coming for christmas to give them more presents. Most families are likely caving. We'll see the majority of the fallout in about 3 weeks ('cause new years, too, but that's more of a holiday for couples).
Well if nothing else, hopefully we'll see more herd immunity as a result.
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kohlrak: The rate of asymptomatic cases will drop significantly due to higher initial viral load, due to the gatherings of these holidays. That's what caused all the problems in China: Chinese new year. Naturally our western nations hold christmas to a high regard, so it'll be where you get the least compliance. Halloween was bad, but wasn't the biggest. Thanksgiving is bigger, but imaging talking to an 9 year old that no one's coming for christmas to give them more presents. Most families are likely caving. We'll see the majority of the fallout in about 3 weeks ('cause new years, too, but that's more of a holiday for couples).
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GamezRanker: Well if nothing else, hopefully we'll see more herd immunity as a result.
Well,good news is, my girlfriend's gettign better. Her brain fog seems to be receding a bit, as with the fatigue and dsypnea. However, for some reason, she still has trouble staying awake when she does get tired. Fortunately, she's still off with steroids so hopefully that continues to work (or not, 'cause i don't know what the exact cause is). She's also able to eat normally again (save for her celiac's disease) and can smell things somewhat. It was looking pretty hairy, there, but she's recovering surprisingly well. She's been able to play stardew valley, at least, and she started finding cat videos again, so she's mostly returning to normal, finally. She's got a god awful cough, though, still, but that's the least of my worries. Might be able to see her again in time for Valentine's day, because, by then, she'll no longer be contagious and hopefully i'll have a vaccine by then.

The nice thing, too, is that the vaccine has been underpriced by the companies making it. The cost per patient is 40-50 bucks, so it's totally reasonable for someone like me who can't afford insurance. The question is, "how fast can they make it?" I understand that this new mRNA tech would appear to make it faster for manufacturing and testing the vaccines, but at the cost of taking longer to take effect, but the demand is alot higher, and obviously there are people out there who need it more than me.
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kohlrak: The rate of asymptomatic cases will drop significantly due to higher initial viral load, due to the gatherings of these holidays. That's what caused all the problems in China: Chinese new year. Naturally our western nations hold christmas to a high regard, so it'll be where you get the least compliance. Halloween was bad, but wasn't the biggest. Thanksgiving is bigger, but imaging talking to an 9 year old that no one's coming for christmas to give them more presents. Most families are likely caving. We'll see the majority of the fallout in about 3 weeks ('cause new years, too, but that's more of a holiday for couples).
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GamezRanker: Well if nothing else, hopefully we'll see more herd immunity as a result.
The real source of herd immunity, and the only one that's considered ethical, is vaccines.

By the way, I saw this rather interesting post about how one of the mRNA vaccines works, with some comparisons to computer security:
https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/reverse-engineering-source-code-of-the-biontech-pfizer-vaccine/
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I decided, for the neanderthals on both the left and the right of this post, as well as those neutral, to do a writeup on how this works, why it matters, based on 7th grade biology, because apparently 10th grade biology wasn't completely grasped by them, and their politics clearly clouds their understanding of how this works.

Normal Cell Operation

Normally, DNA within the cell is caused to split. The method of which is not often explained in highschool, but after much research and contact with microbiologists, I was able to find out that, well, the "unzipping" of DNA is caused by chemical "nodes" along the DNA that, when they come in contact with a protein that "fits" (like a key in a lock) it causes the chemical node to change shape as part of the chemical reaction, which in turn causes the unzipping of a section of DNA, due to it being connected in such a way. From the unzipping, "mRNA" floating around ends up sliding into place, due to opposite charges attracting, then binding to other little bits of mRNA to make a strand of mRNA which is complementary to the DNA of which it attatched to. The mRNA then feeds into "ribosomes" which latch onto the single strands of mRNA, and as minor proteins (which would bind to the mRNA make connections it further feeds into the ribosome (by breaking off the fed in end) until it comes off entirely (yeah, this is a very gross oversimplification, but we gotta keep it simple for some people). With the "code completing," the "finished protein" is then free to go on it's merry way, whether that's otu of the cell, back into the DNA to cause another reaction, or whatever (i imagine size would be the controlling factor, here).

Viruses

Viruses are small matter that "procreate" by hijacking the above process, much like a computer virus hijacks the RAM and CPU of a computer. They typically come as either DNA (as we know and love) or RNA (half the DNA so it never needs a protein to cause it to split, which is also the most common kind of virus) viruses, and their classification of life forms is hotly debated: which is how companies like Lysol can go around claiming to "kill" the "germs," which then falls under the legal term "puffery" rather than "false advertising" so that you cannot sue them. The "basic structure" is a "protein capsid" or "shell" that protects the genetic material (DNA or RNA) on it's way to a cell. The capsid is made up of several proteins, often reacting with the cell membranes which causes the cells to "pull" them in (which is how cells have semi-permiable membranes for "intercellular communication"). These reactable locations on the membrane are called "receptors," and are used by various drugs, like caffeine, to cause various effects on the body (at the cellular level en masse). Once pulled in, the DNA/RNA is released and treated just like the cell's natural DNA/RNA, and the "code" for a virus, to even replecate, must include code necessary to create the virus capcid as well as the genetic material that was injected in the first place, causing a chain reaction. Eventually, this chain reaction causes the cell to "lyce" or "explode" releasing all the created viruses to nearby cells for the process to begin again. A single process of this can be anywhere from 24 hours upwards of even a whole month, which is also what leads to the "incubation period" of a virus, because that's how long it takes for the body to notice "something's wrong, here."

However, in practice, only a certain percentage of these are actually effective. Virus particles can get squashed, targeted by the immune system's passive measures (mucus), digestive enzymes, etc. One particularly invasive virus known to man is the Norwalk Virus (aka Norovirus aka "Stomach Flu") which is a virus that targets receptors primarily in the lower digestive tract. As such, the virus primarily spreads through exposure to matter from the digestive tract (vomit, feces, the micro-fecal-particles of a flushed toilet spreading through the air, etc). Being one of the most infectious viruses known to man, each virus particle has a 5% chance to infect someone. Normally, when exposed, you get exposed by thousands of particles, where even 100 particles puts your chances of infection at 99.4% (failure% = pow(failure per particle, num of particles)).

Immune System

The immune system is made up of various types of cells, mostly, and, as large cells, are incapable of entering the cells to find hijackers. Instead, the immune system relies on "feeling out" entire cells for "irregularities" and then either engulfing them or causing them to lyce. HIV, in particular, targets these feeler cells' unique receptors, which is why the immune system has trouble fighting it off: trying to find and destroy the virus amounts to getting infected and replecating the virus. Eventually, after fighting it off and getting enough "samples" a certain feeler cell can then become converted to help promote the growth of "antibodies" which bind to the uniqueness of the virus' protein shell and make it harder, or impossible, to connect normally to the receptors it connects to.

The "symptoms" of a virus are actaully caused by the immune system in response to finding a virus, not by the virus itself (symptoms don't help the virus, it's not there to make your life miserable, just to continue to exist). The symptom's purpose is to help the body get rid of both active and "disabled" virus particles (and/or other infectious materials, since the body can't really tell a bacteria from a virus from a fungus). As such, as one would expect, the symptoms also help spread the virus. Since viruses target specific tissues, symptoms can thus be used to rudimentally identify a virus, however viruses that infect similar tissues become hard to separate from one another, because they result in similar symptoms.

Vaccines

The traditional method of creating a vaccine is by infecting a cell in a controlled environment (usually using fetal tissue, eggs, etc, not in a grown human being) and collecting the virus particles from the result and then "killing them" (destroying the DNA/RNA) with heavy metals such as mercury, but leaving the protein shells behind. This effectively acts as target practice for your immune system, as the virus particles are no longer infectious. The argument behind vaccines is, after the process of filtering out the heavy metals used to "deactivate" the particles, the risk of infection (due to the process being imperfect, but fairly reliable, resulting in negligible chance of infection [not 0 like the sophists would tell you, but far, far less than you would expect from a "live" virus]) and damage from the heavy metals is far lower than the dangers presented by a real infection (cancer from a failed infection that still manages to corrupt a cell's DNA, unwinnable chronic infection, permanent organ damage, etc). The heavy metals of vaccines do not cause autism, like many conspiracy theorists would suggest, as autism is likely the result of childhood neglect/abandonment, rather than brain damage. Generally, the amount of damage by these heavy metals is low, compared the the amount of damage from drinking water from lead pipes which our ancestors did for many, many years at a time without dying. That's not to say there isn't inherent risks (especially if filtration fails, which happens in rare cases), however this is not common and generally negligible (and i say this as an anti-vaxxer, myself). Normally, it takes the immune system about 2 weeks to create the antibodies, so your ability to prevent infection entirely is dependent upon getting the vaccine 2 weeks prior to exposure. Vaccines given after exposure are likely to be ineffective at best, and possibly making things worse at worst (due to giving the immune system more targets to "shoot at").

SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2 is a sequel to the 2003 outbreak of SARS-CoV(-1) which China was forced to admit fault for. It is special in that it infects via the ACE2 receptors, which are present in almost all cells of the human body, meaning that, unlike most viruses, this thing damages almost all tissues of the body (resulting in some of the more permanent symptoms we're seeing, including causes of death) and also makes it particularly good at spreading. The primary infection tissue for ACE2 would end up being lung tissue, which ends up, of course, being how it spreads (and, if you know then that that's where you'll see the most symptoms, lycing, etc, you also know that WHO was pretty negligent in suggesting that human-to-human transmission was not a factor early on, and that they knew better). Due to the nature of it infecting all tissues, the dose of the virus you get before your first cell lyces is easily the largeest predictor of mortality: that's how much damage is done before the immune system can start responding, as well as how much virus is going to be active after response). Due to the 2-week to 1-month incubation period, it's reasonable to assume the virus can (although this diminishes with time) kill you up to 2 months after infection (most cases appear after 2 weeks, not 2 days like the CDC keeps saying, which is the numbers for Influenza which is adding to conspiracy theories, but we know this is to protect corporate interests). For most healthy individuals, with limited organ damage, cause of death is likely to be ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrom) from which the virus is named (Sudden Acute Respiratory Synrdom - Coronavirus) which causes people to go from feeling fine to dead pretty quickly.

The SARS-CoV-2's vaccine by both moderna and Pfeizer use isolated mRNA to improve vaccine creation time as well as safety. Effective time is incubation period (the downside of the new technology) + antibody production time (do the math to check your own understanding [and i'm out of space]).
Post edited January 20, 2021 by kohlrak
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kohlrak: Lockdowns are ineffective: the primary locations where people come into contact with each other are stores, family gatherings, and jobs, which are all the exceptions to these lockdowns. While one might include gyms and restaurants to this, these are often far more sparcely populated.
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real.geizterfahr: The goal of lockdowns isn't to eliminate every single contact between humans, but to reduce them. By closing gyms and restaurants (closed spaces, where lots of people talk loudly or breathe heavily) and restricting people's movement, you're "buying" some margin to keep the rest of your industry going.

And lockdowns aren't ineffective. They're basically the only measure that got the number of infections anywhere down. Look at any country you want: lockdown -> freedom -> some restrictios -> some more restrictions -> heavy restrictions -> lockdown -> less restrictions -> more restrictions -> lockdown...
And you find that what people do is compensate. Humans are the most adaptive creatures that we're aware of, and when you say you can't "go to to the gym and hang out with your gym buddies," they're now "going to the park to hang out with their gym buddies." Closing the restaurant? Oh, hey, your dinner date can come over to your house (less safe for those tinder dates, but hey, do you really expect people to quit having recreational sex? Don't worry, my governor, Wolfe of Pennsylvania, actually ordered people to wear masks while having sex).

You know what limited the amount of people around me? Actual cases, which scared people. We have this problem where everything that happens is "over there" until it's "here," and we act completely differently. It's like Christians who "believe" in God, but don't act as if He is around (there is no "realization"). Bombs are being dropped on middle-eastern countries, children, pets, old people, innocent lovers, etc were all dying, and "that's sad" or "what a shame." There were cases in China as early as November 2019, and people were dropping dead, but, hey, stopping flights from China during a major outbreak there is "racist." Oh no, there's a major outbreak in a city near you (maybe within your city, but at the other side of your city), but, hey, we always knew that was "the bad district." Terrorist attacks in Paris france? Unless you live in Paris, that's "over there," so let's show our support with some french flags and make no attempts to pressure lawmakers to improve security. Antifa "peacefully protesting" in stores? Nope, it's not my store, not my city. How about AIDS in the LGBTQIA+ community? Nah, I'm not gay. School shootings! Oh wait, we love each other and support each other in our community, and even our outcasts aren't that bad. Oh, hey, there's this crazy guy called Adolf Hitler putting "undesirables" in giant prisons and offing them. No way Russians would build Gulags or that americans would mass imprison Japanese people! Why don't we also ignore his crazy rants about a better world under Germany's rule, 'cause he could never come over here. Oh, hey, that crazy ideology where a country straight up orders a bunch of farmers to farm their fields without getting a single bite of their crop, thus they starve to death 'cause they don't want shot, yeah, that crazy thing called "socialism" could never come here. Syphilis in the native american community? Turns out, this is not a new phenomenon to humanity, but we were the same way over a hundred years ago. No way any of this can happen here, until it does. If you want real results, you need to show humanity how likely "over there" is somehow going to turn into "over here" without warning, and good luck with that task.
The problem with all these rules and restrictions is humanity. We're totally incapable of following some basic, simple rules. When I leave the house, I see people ignoring distances and protection all the time. Kids sticking their heads together to watch some stupid video on a smartphone, people ignoring distances in wating lines (it doesn't go faster just because you're closer -.-), people having a distance of less than half a meter while smoking and blowing the smoke into each others faces... I see a total lack of awareness everywhere. And this is exactly why there isn't a single rule or restriction that has any effect. If you don't BAN social life, infections won't go down. Sad but true.
I'd love to see you somehow pull that off, just as an exercise. I've actually had people argue they shouldn't wear masks, because masks didn't keep them from getting the virus when they wore one all the time while surrounded by people who didn't. Imagine how ignorant people could be, but, hey, I bet that part about masks protecting the people around the wearer, not the wearer, is actually new information for most people. And, i'd bet most of the people reading it actually think i'm full of shit. You see, instead of teaching people basic biology, economics (my god, people don't even know how to write a damn check), etc, we're busy teaching them the same history and math every year (the argument is a "retention problem," but i'd argue that this is easily mitigated by focusing on that which makes the lessons appear practical), activism (how many times we going to give the same useless "abstinence" speeches and expect kids with hormones, porn, free condoms, tinder, etc not to take advantage of it, or the ever famous anti-bullying campaigns that don't work, or the anti-drug campaigns, etc), and, rumor has it, gender pronouns! Look, if we could have all this other crap in addition to teaching what is practical, rather than replacing what is practical, I wouldn't care. Lessons need to be tangible to students, too, of course. In 12th grade, no one cares how many cookies sally has anymore: they're worried about how far they can stretch their Ramen noodles for the next 4-8 years to go through the same thing they've been going through for the past 13 or 14 years.
Sure, it'd be more effective to shut down EVERYTHING for two or three weeks, so you could say that those lockdowns are kinda "ineffective". But this'd cost way more than to just compensate some restaurants.
Absolutely, but what we're doing is just costing us. At the end of the day, the things that are most dangerous are either exceptions or blatently flouted (like mask wearing). In my area, on October 31st, there was a massive "halloween parade" where "nobody was wearing masks" from what I was told. Then there was a small outbreak about a month later (surprise, it's not 2-days to 2-weeks 'cause it's not a flu, despite what our CDCs tell us) right around Thanksgiving, another major holiday where families travel all over the country to be together! Imagine another 2-weeks to a month later for Christmas! Hey, everyone, how my fellow americans feeling right now? Kicker? Republicans were largely saying it's all a hoax (big surprise, for reasons stated a few pages ago regarding politicization of the issue), and democrates were joining in, too, just not explaining why they made exceptions. At the end of the day, everyone is still treating it as "over there" not "over here," just different people have different excuses. I'd love for someone to properly explain why they can't breath through a surgical mask, but, hey, every one who told me such was not wearing one and i didn't want to stick around long enough to find out. It's alot safer over the internet.

But, hey, i predicted this all years ago back during the Ebola scare. I said "well, if anything that was ever actually high contagious got out, we'd be in real trouble." When i worked at this one nursing home, i was told that if I didn't get the influenza vaccine, i would have to wear a mask all winter. I was told this after i got the jab (thought it was mandatory to prevent getting fired), so i wore a mask all winter, anyway. Next year i didn't get the shot, and wore surgical masks all "flu season." The real kicker, when the flu vaccines were announced to be ineffective that year (which regularly happens, because they gotta guess the strain), surprisingly I was still the only one who had to wear a mask. Oh, and then there was a norovirus outbreak, and they put up signs saying that wearing a mask was useless, that it's just "some unknown stomach bug that only spreads by failure to wash your hands." Yeah, all these kitchen staff members, administrators, etc were all just in there digging in the dirty diapers of the residents, i'm sure, oh and failing to wash their hands afterwards. I was one of the precious few people in the facility that didn't get it: the others all wore masks like me.

That's something I never understood. If you're going to close shopping centers (for example), simply do it! But don't tell people that they have two days left to go there! Guess where everyone here went when they did this two weeks or so ago... It's so goddamn stupid to announce this a few days before it takes effect.
I don't know what it's like in Spain, but most people around the world don't have more than, maybe, two week's worth of food in storage, at the most. Some people only have maybe a day or two. For factories, arrangements must be made to attempt to either compensate or close. A lockdown isn't simply: Ok, you can stay home for a few days. Depending on the nature of the lockdown, it can have heavy consequences for a particular industry. Not only that, but "warning" offers a grace period for people who might not have things like internet access to find out that a lock down is even occuring (yes, these people actually do exist, and i know a few: we can discuss the problems with this in another topic, because it sure as hell isn't simple).
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kohlrak: I take it youre a proponent of "the 5 second rule"? Hint: germs don't care. Sure, the risk is lower than 5 seconds, but, well, pool analogy above.
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dtgreene: Actually, the general advice seems to be that one needs to be in proximity with another person for 15 minutes for it to count as being exposed.
From whom, the same people that say that you can't spread influenza if you don't have a fever? You know, those people in the United State's Center for Disease Control? I take these people very seriously. Read my explantion on covid above, find points you disagree with, else i'm not too concerned with what regulators say. They've proven they largely don't have the intelligence level to understand what i wrote above, because they have made loads of regulations that do more to spread it than to prevent spreading.

In any case, the risk is incredibly low if the rule is violated for just 5 seconds. It's even lower if both people are wearing masks. It's even lower than that if both people are outside, or if there is a closed door between both people. (I got a delivery during the pandemic that would have had to be signed for during normal times, but during the pandemic the delivery person only had to see someone to deliver it.)
Yeah, the time reduces, but it's, well, like not much. I've regularly been among a small minority that regularly manages to not get infected when among people who follow the regulations and get infected anyway. Wanna know my secret? The secret is stupidly simple: i assume the regulators are full of shit. Instead, i try to understand things myself, come to my own conclusions, and think for myself. It's done me way better than any of these sheep that simply flout the rules or even the sheep that fully obey the rules and still somehow manage to get sick. If you really want to eradicate a bug, you have to take it as if it were life threatening and catch it early. If, for example, when we heard about this, we stopped all flights from china and quarantined travelers for 1 month (and we could've afforded to provide for them, since their numbers would've been much smaller), we could've had our super duper harsh lockdown early and prevented the spread entirely. But we didn't take it seriously until it was already out of control.
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dtgreene: Like how the US has operated with regard to the pandemic?
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toxicTom: I'm actually not that familiar with how the US federal system handled it. I know it was bad over there, and I guess deniers in high places *cough* were certainly to blame in part... But I don't know how individual states handles it, and what it meant for the neighbours. US states are considerably larger than our's though. So more people live farther from a state border - that may help in some regards.
Deniers are all over. There's some leaked footage that even the damn press that "fearmongers" about covid all the time doesn't buy it. It's largely been virtue signalling from anyone who hasn't known someone personally, i've noticed. It's why the regulations don't make much sense when you analyze them critically. The most effective things we could've done we refused to do, and that's pretty much every country in the world. We handled SARS-CoV-1 better.

EDIT: Most US politicians simply saw it as an opportunity to turn into a polar issue. Notice the hard lockdown people were out marching in "protests" when it met their interests, but everything else needed to be hard locked down, even trying to arrest people for being alone in their cars with the windows rolled up as a cure for cabin fever. The whole lot of them are sophists, thinking that they could play with this and some are finding out that, magically, this thing was actually more serious.

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dtgreene: What if you live in a food desert where there's no grocery store in a 15 km radius?
Central Europe is too densely populated for that.
Maybe, but we know how the EU is: it'd be more than just central europe. And i've seen some pretty isolated frenchmen.
Post edited January 21, 2021 by kohlrak
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kohlrak: And you find that what people do is compensate.
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real.geizterfahr: That's exactly what I was talking about. People aren't aware that there's this virus-thingy. Close restaurants and they'll meet at home. And this is exactly why most restrictions don't work. And when you tell them that it's lockdown-time again, they start crying about how they followed all the rules and that a lockdown is a crime against humanity -.- People are stupid.
Or maybe it's their choice. I'm finding lockdown supporters breaking lockdowns restrictions all the time. Lockdown arachitects have even been caught flouting the rules. I'd much, much rather go after the people that let it into these countries in the first place. I notice no one ever seems to criticize China's response or the response of people who knew about china's response well before it ever made it across the world. No no, focus on the lockdown breakers, which includes the people advocating for it. Sounds more like governments are being asked to control people by people who can't control themselves.

But, hey, let's keep trying to do this thing, and watch people find new ways to compensate, meanwhile find that manages to do more overall damage but not actually do anything about the problem we thought it was going to solve. I mean, common, you'd think if something doesn't work and turns out to be entirely impractical, you'd learn and not try to do the thing harder. But, for some reason, just as people are "stupid" to ignore the lockdowns, i'd argue people are "stupid" to propose them. They don't work. What do we call it when people do the same thing over and over again expecting a different result?
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kohlrak: I'd love to see you somehow pull that off, just as an exercise.
Have a look at Germany, Austria, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece... It's done all the time in Europe. Where I live it currently isn't allowed to meet anyone who doesn't live in your household (restaurants, bars, gyms, shopping centers and huge stores closed, curfew from 10 p.m. to 6 a.m.). That's what "lockdown" means in Europe. And guess what? Numbers are going down drastically. I live on an island with a population of ~1 milion people. We had 400 or 500 cases a day. Today we had 200 (last few days ~250). In March and April we weren't even allowed to leave our houses except for buying food (at the closest supermarket) or going to work. In May you were allowed to go outside. But not when and where you wanted! Only 1 kilometer (0.6 miles) and only at a certain time (parents with their kids, older population and the rest of us had a different "schedule" when we were allowed to go outside).
So you're saying people actually obeyed these lockdown rules and didn't meet up in stores? I heard those George Floyd protests totally didn't happen in europe.

Oh, and how is that curfew going to keep people apart? See, we have this problem in the US where Walmarts stopped being a 24/hr shopping center. In the past, if i wanted to go to walmart and buy food without running into people (like during flu outbreaks), i could go at 1AM. Now everyone's being shoved in at about the same times.

Meanwhile, you know where it's safest to go in the US right now, from what i've seen? Cities full of people. Why? Because they all got it back in March, so they still have immunity. I've been telling people to go to the nearest city to do their shopping because the case numbers are lowest in those locations (they're about the same as rural areas, but when you normalize for population density, your chances of infection per encounter are significantly lower).
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kohlrak: I don't know what it's like in Spain, but most people around the world don't have more than, maybe, two week's worth of food in storage, at the most.
You can still buy food here. Supermarkets, computer stores, farmacies and other essential stuff is still open. But telling people that they have two days left to buy their christmas gifts before everything non-essential has to close, was a silly decision.
Well, like i said, it wasn't just Christmas gifts they were warned for. But, i would agree, there's no reason for Christmas gifts. Maybe warning traveling businessmen that they need to go home to shut down their factory, however, is warranted. You could argue there shouldn't be traveling businessmen, but, then again, who the hell pays these politicians to order the lockdowns? I sure as hell don't recall voting for it nor hearing about a vote in any other country.
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john_hatcher: Funny, that you say the lockdowns work, when there is a fully peer reviewed paper that says otherwise.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/eci.13484
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Orkhepaj: Did they do a test with mandatory masks too? Wonder if those help at all or not.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see that they do. See this post and feel free to find the fault in logic.
Post edited January 22, 2021 by kohlrak