I understand your country and you are going through something tragic at this time, but I think you are being a bit too harsh to Germany and others during this crisis. My understanding is that nobody actually donated masks or ventilators to Italy when they were requesting them, from the EU, no EU country. But some countries helped in other ways, like someone mentioned. Germany took some covid-19 patients from Italy to treat them.

Eurobonds are very controversial. It's too soon for them. Mutual debt and credit, but no mutual liability? The less indebted cover for the more indebted? I believe the time will come for that in a more federalised EU, but asking basically Germany (plus some other northern EU countries) to guarantee debt and let other countries borrow at a reduced rate, that would not normally be possible - needs a lot more framework for liability and what happens if they end up defaulting / resulting in a sovereign debt crisis. It works in the US, only because of the federal state and that it acts as a single country, the same cannot be said for the EU for the foreseeable future, if ever.

The good news is, there may be other ways to get cheap credit from the EU - I read that 2% of GDP can be received from the EU stability fund/mechanism, which is the recommended and discussed method by the German finance minister and Dutch and some others who object to Eurobonds. That fund is worth half a trillion euro, and now seems a good time to use it. They might need more, so what they are discussing is going to the financial markets to raise more, basically issuing 'corona bonds'. This is in addition to the EU stimulus package.

We will see what happens, if the EU comes together or grows apart during the crisis.

I don't think that relying on financial markets (which are one of the major causes of the lack of public ressources) is a good idea.

Is it true that quaranteen can last for a year?

Warm weather doesn't seems to reduce really the spread - Australia, south america, antilles... --> warm weather, spread is growing.

No country will be able to stand a quarantine as one we have in Europe for more than 2 months without a complete change of economic systems and how money is created/distributed (and even if such a shift in the way most of the people think economy was possible, I don't think we would live in a pleasant world)

So, I'll bet that in 1 or 2 months :
- China will start buying big chunks of europe and USA industries;
- Europe and USA will go back to work but the number of diseased and death will rise again after a relative lowering.
- Africa will suffer of millions deaths, because of the disease and of the economy nearly killed.
- We will change nothing in the causes that made that kind of disaster possible : capitalism and tourism will work the same, public services will still be destroyed one by one,
- we are also suffering and will continue suffering of the diminishing of petrol extaction (which is the number 1 - by far - factor of GDP growth : in modern societies you can't have more GDP growth than petrol production growth)
- so as the "cake" will shrink, less and less rich people will take more and more % of it. Like in monopoly (tm).
Others can die.

Add to that climate change, and quarantine will soon be only one amongst many, many problems.
But we will be trying to solve them with the same "solutions" that caused the problems.

My doubt over your predictions is how you're estimating China will be involved. Either, they have beaten the virus, as they say they have, in a space of 2 months (personally I doubt this), or they will suffer the same effects as we would as we return to work in order to keep our economy going. If they've beaten it, then it's plausible we can do the same, otherwise they will be contending with a manufacturing industry that is much closer packed than western society. While they have a significant economy, it's heavily debt dependent and in many ways it's more fragile than the western economies now, so if it does hit as you anticipate, I think it will actually hit China harder.

This is an article I found very interesting:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

It's about coronaviruses (probably thousands of them), their natural reservoir (bats) and attempts to research them as preparation for future pandemics. Fascinating stuff.

I agree that my "chinese part" is the most speculative one.
But I'm not sure that their economics is more fragile than ours.

It all depends on the amount of toilet paper.

If we run out of toilet paper, it will be the end of our civilization. Well, if we can call it civilization to begin with.

"united and supportive Europe" = "German taxpayers should guarantee the debts of states over whose fiscal policies they have no control".
No thanks. I'm all for supporting Italy with medical supplies (to the extent that's possible, given that the situation within Germany might well escalate as well, cases of Covid-19 are steadily rising), but this attempt to use the crisis for forcing through Eurobonds is a bit much. If rejecting that means the end of the Euro and the EU, ok, I'm fine with that, and many other Germans will eventually be as well. Take your chances with China and Russia, if you really want, good luck.

China, the biggest economy in the world, is much stronger if you are viewing it through an old-fashioned 'low-debt' 'high-production' lens.

It has a low debt to gdp ratio, much lower than western countries on the whole. If anything, China can weather this crisis much more easily than many western countries.

How do you think we've been paying for Chinese goods and services for decades now?

That's why I asked her to define quarantine, cause question was too simple to give an accurate answer (my opinion).

You're right of course on most points, what I meant was mostly that we will be able to go outside. For example, we have martial law here, I can't go outside between 5pm and 5am, but I still go to work from 8am to 4pm so basically I have 1 hour between work and martial law to get groceries, take care of my pets and that's without counting travel time. That's why I said hopefully warm weather will stun the spread a bit but it was really just an uneducated guess and a wishful thinking. Didn't even dive into the economic shitstorm this is gonna unleash upon us.

I didn't really follow all that much cause I try to isolate myself from all the news and a billion of different informations, is Africa hit by the virus?

that's only the basics like when China sent here masks and a team of doctors to help. that was not expected from them, but if you are in europe that's only the basics, I know every country in europe can do more for others.
if they really live the spirit of the European Union and they don't want eurobonds in this emergency moment they can offer a loan at 0% interest to italy for the same amount that is needed to help people.

You are wrong, China not only sent masks they also sent a team of doctors to help people with covid 19.

In this real crysis moment this is what europe is for: stronger countries should help countries that are not that strong. After all after the fall of the berlin wall the East German mark was guaranteed the same value as that of the West precisely because of the spirit of solidarity.
Also, this is not a definitive Eurobond, they are just a tool for this specific moment where debt is the only way to solve the problem and where you cannot cut anything if you don't want people to starve.
the fact that you lose even more precious time for a solidarity that should always be there is something that I will never be able to understand.
In Italy there have been several factions for and against Europe for several years now, but those who have always believed in it and who have tried to reduce the debt first of all (with anti-popular policies that have continuously hindered the achievement of a full popular support) have always believed that in times of real emergency the rest of Europe would be there.
It is no coincidence that at this moment all Italian parties agree that the only way is a common debt at least once.
But it wasn't just Italy.
Also France, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Slovenia, Belgium, Luxembourg.
Mario Draghi and even Ursula von der Leyen have spoken out in favor.
In a normal situation I understand very well that a common debt is a matter of trust that cannot become reality until countries have comparable debts.
But not in real emergency situations. If you want to be united in a real union then this is the time to prove it. Otherwise the countries you have turned your back on could found another Europe much closer to its people.
Overly rigorous policies for years have mostly had the effect of making people poorer and less likely to trust Europe and others.
To continue on this path even in such a situation means to want to be alone.
Even those who have always believed in a united Europe are changing their minds. I am among them.
Letting one's own fellow citizen die of hunger (because we are European citizens) in an emergency is unacceptable, even if in the past the latter made mistakes.
I add and conclude. The Italians, unlike their own state, have very few debts. I myself, my family, my friends, have never contracted any debt. The house is owned and we prefer debit cards instead of borrowing with credit cards. Private debt is among the lowest in Europe, the propensity to save very high.
We are already paying for the mistakes and wastes of those who have governed us in the past (our taxes are among the highest in the world), at this moment, however, it is not time to think about public debt. This is the time to save lives which is much more important.
If Germany and the others want to help, give us the opportunity to borrow money at zero or negative rates, because a lot of money will be needed to face this moment and the crisis immediately after. Otherwise we will do it alone or with the help of countries that are truly our allies.

Apart from the fact that it is not asked to act as guarantors only to northern Europe countries. All European countries will act as guarantors, Italy itself will act as guarantor for others (and so far it has never defaulted, despite being the victim of speculation for a long time) and the very fact that all are guarantors will greatly lower the rate. Indeed, I am convinced that countries that refuse to do so may not even participate ... if debt were issued between the only 9 countries that decided to make eurobonds, the interest rate would still be zero or negative, perhaps even lower than that of Germany (which therefore has everything to gain).


If it were so simple, Italy and the other countries would have accepted immediately.
What Germany want Italy to use is the MES, which however serves to correct the economy with reforms that would definitely kill the country at this time.

This way of thinking is the same as the Salvini-style nationalists here. Everyone closed in his own garden thinking about his own things.
If this is the Europe you want, it is a good thing that will end and you will be alone.
So when you find yourself in a moment of difficulty we will answer the same "why Italy taxpayers should help germany that always tried to impose itself with an economic Nazism in other european countries?".
I remain for a united and supportive Europe, where individual people feel part of a single nation and when they pay taxes they do it for all of Europe, not just for their own garden.
If all this is utopia then it is right to get out of it.

I add and conclude. I personally have no debt, I pay a lot of taxes and work. Reasoning like you I could simply move to another country and continue to live without problems even if Italy in the meantime goes down the drain.
I don't think so. As far as I'm concerned, you need to be as supportive as possible. They educated me like this.

"economic Nazism" - lol, typical, the German as the eternal Nazi (from the country which actually invented fascism). It's exactly stuff like this why, apart from the current Covid-19 crisis, I don't have much sympathy for Italians anymore and won't be overly sad, if the EU breaks apart.
I won't write more on the issue (and you shouldn't as well imo), since political discussions are banned here and I don't want this thread to get locked.

if you stop to act like that people will change their mind.
btw this is the first time that I use the term economic Nazism, I thought you were different, that you had changed exactly like us Italians.
Maybe I was wrong...however, I want to believe that your position is actually a minority position, particularly in this emergency period.
It's not about politics, it's about covid 19.