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General discussionSecret Hitler #2 - Everybody is a Star(1694 posts)(1694 posts)
(1694 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted February 21, 2019
So, I think there are two issues to be adressed:

1) It is extremely unlikely that we'll lose by having 6 fascist policies passed. The only way to lose is to get Hitler elected. Therefore we need to go through the players and look at them taking only the Hitler/non-Hitler into account. Regardless of them being fascist liberals.
More on this later

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2) Which path to take. The way I see it, there are two options:

Since both myself and Lift are locked out, we can:

2a) Reject the next 2 governments to have me as president. I choose someone who's least likely to be Hitler, and if that fails, then trent/SPF/Pooka choose Lift as the chancellor.
This has the disadvantage of having two governments in a row with an unknown. I have to choose an unknown as chancellor, after which an unknown president has to choose Lift.

2b) Have flub select a chancellor someone who's least likely to be Hitler. This will unlock both me and Lift, so if that government fails I can choose Lift again for the win.
This has the advantage of having a government of me+Lift again, almost ensuring a win unless we get FFF. The disadvantage (and risk) is that if flub is fascist, he could reveal himself and execute one of us.

Thoughts?
Posted February 21, 2019
OK, now for the list of players with notes about whether they could be Hitler or no

1. ZFR (I'm including myself though I know I'm liberal): passed liberal policies at the beginning. Something Hitler would do to appear liberal.

2. trent: Passed liberal policy at the beginning. Something Hitler would do to appear liberal. Nothing much else otherwise.

3. SPF: Passed liberal policy at the beginning. Something Hitler would do to appear liberal.
There is however another metagame note about SPF, something I don't like to use since it involves RL, but has to be noted nonetheless. His latest inactivity. I don't think Hitler would be inactive. He'd try to be active to get elected. This is a very very small issue however, since SPF could have genuine RL reasons for his inactivity.

4. Pooka: He was selected as president in a situation where there were 7F1L policies left. i.e. one which most likely would result in a fascist policy. For this reason, I find it less likely that he's Hitler. If he were, he and his fascist buddies would try to not put him into office at this stage so he doesn't get tainted by the fascist policy he has to pass.

5. Lifti: Not Hitler

6. scene: Eh, I think Hitler!scene would have acted differently. The fact that he's all over the place creating conflicts might be an indication of both liberal and fascist, but I don't think he's Hitler.

7. blotunga: very not sure here. I thought him not likely to be Hitler before, but scene did bring up a fair point, that maybe his government election failed so easily because his fellow fascists didn't want him in a situation where he either has to pass an F and appear bad or pass the 4th L policy to bring them closer to a loss. Also there is the fact that an inexperienced scum!Pooka might have thought it a good idea to confirm Hitler.

8. rtcvb: Very likely to be Hitler. His irrational fear of being in government when the deck was loaded with Fs points to it. I mean a liberal player would know that someone is going to pass those Fs one way or another, so wouldn't it be better to at least get investigative powers? Hitler would be scared to be tainted.

9. flub: nothing. Well, there is the fact that trent selected him first before changing his mind, which I thought might have been a fascist not liking that Hitler was in position 9 and wanting to get him confirmed quickly. But then that fascist chose a liberal Lift instead? Doesn't make sense.

10. Joe: fascist. Could be Hitler.

Based on the above, my #1 choice for least likely to be Hitler is Pooka. scene and blotunga next.
So I think, whether it's me or flub as president, Pooka should be next chancellor.

Thoughts?
Posted February 21, 2019
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ZFR: Thoughts?
Hmmm.. rejecting governments til ZFR is president sounds find to me.

Also rejecting and forcing a random policy has 85% to be F, likely resulting in FF rather than a potential L&F passing with accepting a government (Before a policy is randomly enacted).

But it really comes to what happens after, it is going to be highly unlikely ZFR will be president a fourth time.

Also note, noticed in watching several games on TB's channel (before he passed away) Hitler tends to be the most quiet person, trying not to draw attention to themselves. I half expect you could get a good approximation by counting the number of posts made by each person and the ones with the fewest posts are most likely to be Hitler (though not guaranteed, Hitler playing as a total Liberal to this point (as i'd have done) and thus made no odd actions).
Posted February 21, 2019
I nominate blotunga for chancellor.
Posted February 21, 2019
Or we could choose quickly before discussing.

Sorry I just dont trust flub blotunga.
Posted February 21, 2019
CURRENT PROPOSED GOVERNMENT
President: Flub. (flubbucket)
Chancellor: The Mighty Blotunga (blotunga)

Please PM me your yes/no votes on whether you wish for this setup or not. There must be a majority "yes" for this to pass.
Post edited February 21, 2019 by zeogold
Posted February 21, 2019
I have thought of another reason why Pooka can't be Hitler.

Joe in a post before wrote an essay on how Pooka was Hitler.
Scum wouldn't do it if Pooka actually was Hitler. Way too risky.

I strongly suggest we skip to me+Pooka government. If that fails (Pooka is scum or I get FFF) next in line chooses Lift as Chancellor.
Posted February 21, 2019
Well, the nomination was fast.

With blotunga, whom I confirmed liberal, on board. Are we voting yes or no?
Posted February 21, 2019
I think we might have to chance a zfr pooka and then a pooka lift. I don't know what flub is, but at the moment it's too risky to have him as president. Rtcb still could've burried the last L which would mean that the next 2 governments will get only 3F draws, keep that in mind.
As for me, I'm definitively not Hitler. If you go back you will see that I was opposed to the Pooka government and was trying to get presidency at some point with a high FFF risk because I thought that we need some way to confirm if we can rtcb or flub. I chose flub because rtcb gave me hitlery vibes. Regular town shouldn't be afraid of being blamed for F policies. I wasn't when i was lift's chancellor.
Posted February 21, 2019
Well I backed the wrong horse, sorry Lift, I could of sworn you were the scum player but I guess it's Joe after all.

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ZFR: OK.

I was passed L L F and passed an L F to Lift in order to test him.

Call it risky, but at this stage I believed the benefits of testing Lift far outweighed the benefits of securely passing him an LL. Testing him, whether he turns Liberal or Fascist, answers many questions while giving him LL still puts us in a tough spot of whom to choose next.

As it is, it turned out well.

So, Joe is definitely fascist.

And Lift is liberal. I just don't see a scenario in which fascist Lift would bus a fascist buddy for lib credit. Without chat to coordinate the whole thing.

Thoughts on what to do next to come in a bit.
TBH I think you made a mistake and you should have passed LL at this stage but all turned out well and better in face. Because we have info and a policy passed.

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zeogold: CURRENT PROPOSED GOVERNMENT
President: Flub. (flubbucket)
Chancellor: The Mighty Blotunga (blotunga)

Please PM me your yes/no votes on whether you wish for this setup or not. There must be a majority "yes" for this to pass.
Way too high a chance for Blotunga to be Hitler for me to vote for this. Given you're a complete unknown and possibly leveraging a scumbuddy or just Liberal and trusting a potential Hitler I have to say NOPE
Posted February 21, 2019
Come to think of it, when you were prez, I didn't vote for you on the principle that flub was chancellor and we have our doubts about him. Right now, he's prez and we're at a high chance of either 3F or a buried L.

Also, about skipping governments, it's a risky proposition is it not? We get the chance up for an F to be enacted. All it takes is for the two governments after that is to enact F. And if there's a fascist in the second government, they won't care a single bit if it ousts them. We're done for.

So in the scenario the top policy is F and it's enacted, there needs to be a government with careful fascist play first, and then the government after that can be as brazen as they want if it has a fascist in its ranks.
Posted February 21, 2019
If we skip flub and Joe, the next government is me plus you, Pooka.
Posted February 21, 2019
I don't like Blotunga as chancellor in case he's Hitler. The most important criteria for Chancellor right now is that they must not be Hitler. Flub as ever there's no read to be had.

ZFR can be next president, as per rules:

If the President passes the
presidency to the next player in the
rotation, that player would get to
run for President twice in a row:
once for the Special Election and
once for their normal shift in the
Presidential rotation.

So ZFR to take it home for 5 liberal policies is my pick for next Prez.

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ZFR: If we skip flub and Joe, the next government is me plus you, Pooka.
I don't consider Pooka the best choice now that Lift has been confirmed Liberal. The odds of Pooka having discarded a Liberal card are quite high now. If you pick Pooka and he is Scum we can't cycle back to Lift next turn.

Pick me or maybe pick Trent. I don't think Trent scum reads me in early play if he's Hitler. Also now we know Lift is Liberal I think it's less likely Trent is Scum because he would be more likely to pick Hitler or Fascist if he's Scum.

SPF also probably doesn't let it goto 3-0 if he's Scum.......unless he's Hitler.
Posted February 21, 2019
Sorry for my inactivity, life has been hectic with my daughter and cancer again. She’s been doing chemo for a week and a half now and it’s taken up a lot of my time mental and physically. I will finish the game though, it looks to be over soon as it is.

For the current proposed government I will be voting no. I also must apologize to Lift as I thought he was the scum between him and Joe, but I can’t see him as scum after passing our fourth Liberal policy when it would not make sense for scum to do so.
Posted February 21, 2019
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trentonlf: Sorry for my inactivity, life has been hectic with my daughter and cancer again. She’s been doing chemo for a week and a half now and it’s taken up a lot of my time mental and physically. I will finish the game though, it looks to be over soon as it is.

For the current proposed government I will be voting no. I also must apologize to Lift as I thought he was the scum between him and Joe, but I can’t see him as scum after passing our fourth Liberal policy when it would not make sense for scum to do so.
Very sorry to hear your bad news and best of luck to her.
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This is my favourite topic
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General discussionSecret Hitler #2 - Everybody is a Star(1694 posts)(1694 posts)
(1694 posts)