@Blotunga (and everyone else) let's say you're not chancellor who would you find least Hitlery?
10% Chance. The odds of you being Hitler twice before the event of you being Hitler first time are very low. But you being Hitler at the start of this game resets to 10% chance.
My issue is Lift was quite happy to nominate you. But Lift is a smart guy, he knows if he genuinely drew FFF it is very unlikely that Pooka didn't discard a Liberal card. He knows Pooka reads you as Liberal. So Lift should be very suspicious of both Pooka and Blotunga because of this. Why isn't Lift suspicious of you? Perhaps because Lift and Pooka are both fascist scum and you are Hitler? This is my concern. Maybe all 3 of you are Liberal and we got very unlucky.
Also think of the last game, I don't think you ever goto be in government. Now let's talk theory and just say you are Hitler in this game, wouldn't you learn from that and try to get into government earlier? I think yes. How would you play it if you were Hitler?
Lift had a great chance to discredit me, true. It would be highly convenient if Pooka, Lift and me were a scum triangle, alas we're not. The odds were the same as the current government, 60% and then again about 60% for 3F. I think there is a likelyhood that both Pooka and Lift are Liberal.
If I was Hitler, I for certainly wouldn't have tried to get presidency earlier. As I said, I'm here to help as best I can. You on the other hand usually tried to sabotage most of my initiatives, which makes you at least suspect. Only a scum would know a true liberal so lobbying against him would be a good move, I think.
60% x 60% = 36% chance that no Liberal card came up. Or 64% chance one or more of Lift and Pooka are Scum. Now if you're genuinely Liberal do you not agree that that isn't in fact likely? Also if you're all Liberal wouldn't they vote for your Presidency as they both believe you're Liberal? If they're Fascist they'd want to block your government if you are either Hitler or Liberal, correct?
From those odds do you not find it good Liberal play to avoid your government given both Lift and Pooka have vouched for you either directly or indirectly by not having a conflict with you? Liberals are meant to sabotage likely fascist governments. Would Fascists do this or would they buddy upto you and vote the other way?
More importantly would Hitler sabotage governments and risk being frozen out? Let's take the scenario that I am a Fascist (I'm not). Well we goto 4-3 but we know to take me out of future governments because we trust ZFR. We know to analyse my votes and criticisms and believe the opposite to be true. We also don't risk getting Hitler in government and losing.
Well, that went as feared. My guess is that rtcvb either really did draw FFF (independend of his alignment) or that he buried an L. (More likely from the likelihoods of the draw).
@ZFR: the failed governments counter is reset as soon as a government is voted into office.
@all: we have to take great care from now on not to make Hitler a Chancellor. That means we need at least two players with a low Hitler probability between whom we can alternate until we have passed the next two L. Concerning Hitlers: I still think that the Fascists will have tried their best to get Hitler into an early government. Either that, or they are all sitting towards the end of the table and didn't have a chance to do so. So perhaps it would be a good idea to make someone Chancellor, who wasn't in a government yet. That might still end up being a regular Fascist, but we would be quite safe from the Hitler disaster.
rtcvb is still a possible Hitler with the way he played before. Maybe he got cold feed and didn't dare to pass the 4th L. So I wouldn't trust him with any future government. I would still trust ZFR with a government, at least with a presidency, since he didn't have a choice but to pass F. Unless rtcvb and ZFR are both Fascists, but I don't think so.
What are the chances that I'm Hitler again?
This sounds a bit too much like stating the obvious Lift. If you're Scum who could you want to be Chancellor that hasn't been in power already? Blotunga perhaps? Hmmmm