"I hate how Steam doesn't curate! It's loaded with crappy games!"
"I hate how GOG curates! I can't get X game there!"
I'm all for curating. But it should be done based on the quality of the games, not based on the expected sales. Even from a business point of view it can make sense to include a game, which is good, but does not sell too well, because the lack of certain quality games in a shop may harm the reputation of the shop as a whole.
Came here to post this. I rely on GOG and pay them for discovery (the flipside of promotion). That's why I show up here almost daily and buy a ton of new releases and even in-dev games based only on a couple of screenshots. If their curation results in them rejecting obvious masterpieces, I'm going to stop relying on them, stop making those "impulse" purchases, and if it happens often enough, they will lose money, market share and rep.
(I don't meant it in a "aw, you rejected my favorite game? I'll show you, I'll show you all, muahahaha" way but "oh, a new release? looks shiny, instabuy" naturally changing to "oh, a new release? never heard of it, I'll wait for reviews... which I'm too lazy to google... whatever")
No, not really. Wishlist voters are in the tens of thousands at least
, which means that 400 is a tiny, tiny fraction of the wishlist voter group. So even controlling for the smaller base group of wishlist voters doesn't make 400 enough votes to expect a return on the game.
That's not even getting into the people who vote for a game and then wind up not buying.
Votes for old AAA games and new indie games aren't on the same scale, and notbuyers voting on name recognition are more of a "problem" for old games (barring an organized raid). Hell, even some extraordinarily popular AAA games look like failures:
Nier Automata has 1600 votes.
Dragon Age 2 has 1600 votes and some wish duplication, for an estimated total of about 2000.
Indie games are generally not doing great:
They Are Billions, 102 votes
Northgard, 287 votes
( ^ Steam keeps shilling for these two.)
Pyre, the alleged omgwtfbbq masterpiece, 593 votes
our man jefequeso's Dusk, 245 votes (go vote)
"500 votes is too few" is basically an argument against releasing any new indie games, and we know it's wrong because GOG does
release new indie games.
edit: I also suspect the super high vote count for indies, where it happens, wouldn't imply a runaway success for GOG either -- by the time such a game shows up, it'll have been bundled and rebundled and largely forgotten.
GOG should be more honest in their rejection letters and just say that they don't expect the game to make a profit for them, sure. But they have good reason to expect the game not to break even.
This reminds me of 4e, when the dickhanded devs cut out the "unpopular" options from the initial release, and then it turned out (what a shock) gaming groups contain more than 1 person, and if one player's character is emphatically not supported, the group as a whole has no reason to downgrade to a new edition.
This is also what keeps killing large automated brick-and-mortar bookstores.
GOG isn't supposed to be in the black on each release, they're supposed to be in the black overall and have that black get larger in absolute figures. That thing where I check GOG each day for a new release to maybe buy is completely different from a dynamic when I learn about a popular release elsewhere and look for a store to buy it at. The former, more good games has a multiplicative effect on bestsellers, too. The latter is a death spiral, and it's going to look supersparklypositive
if the metric is "what share of the releases is selling well" - it'll turn GOG into yet another box to maybe check on isthereanydeal.