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General discussion[ Mystery Giveaway ]   The Hunt for the Holy Grail(1042 posts)(1042 posts)
(1042 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted May 29, 2015
Game script / Chell / France.

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ZFR: Game script / Chell / Uruguay.
Hey! Game script / Chell are mine! My preciousssesss!

:P

EDIT: That's one big LOL.
Post edited May 29, 2015 by helpo1
Posted May 29, 2015
Guess #33:
Microfilms / April Ryan / Thailand
Posted May 29, 2015
Accounting / Alan Wake / China

p.s. As long as this is taking, it probably won't last long enough for me to get to 2 stars ;)
Post edited May 29, 2015 by bler144
Posted May 30, 2015
April Ryan / Galaxy Wars / Finland
Posted May 30, 2015
Blueprints / Alan Wake / Uruguay

EIDT: typo
Post edited May 30, 2015 by ZFR
Posted May 30, 2015
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bler144: p.s. As long as this is taking, it probably won't last long enough for me to get to 2 stars ;)
I don't know. You just need 27, don't you? That's about 6 days under optimal conditions, isn't it?
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ZFR: EIDT: typo
+1
Post edited May 30, 2015 by mrkgnao
Posted May 30, 2015
Game script / Chell / China.

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ZFR: EIDT: typo
Yup. Definitely.
Posted May 30, 2015
Ha ha. Well after 2 quotes got to leave it now the way it is.
Posted May 30, 2015
Accounting / Alan Wake / France

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mrkgnao: I don't know. You just need 27, don't you? That's about 6 days under optimal conditions, isn't it?
If I'm ballparking the math right, we're at the point where the odds it's guessed in the next 150 guesses is around 50%, not even taking into account future hints shrinking the pool. At current pace that's around 2-3 days, and may speed up over the weekend.
Posted May 30, 2015
Passwords / Duke Nukem / United States
Posted May 30, 2015
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bler144: If I'm ballparking the math right, we're at the point where the odds it's guessed in the next 150 guesses is around 50%, not even taking into account future hints shrinking the pool. At current pace that's around 2-3 days, and may speed up over the weekend.
Probability has never been my strong suit, but how does 1 out of ~11,700 ((31*32*12) minus (100 to 200)), yield 50% within 150 guesses?
Posted May 30, 2015
Guess #34:
Source Codes / Francis Y. Morgan / Norway
Posted May 30, 2015
Blueprints / Chell / Uruguay
Posted May 30, 2015
Accounting / Alan Wake / Norway

Edit : as for the math, I'll want to check my formula before I try to explain it, but dependent probability creates some unexpected realities. For example, you probably know that, in a room with 23 people, the odds are 51% that 2 of them share a birthday even though it defies intuition.

And in this case, rather than do the math out by hand I did kind of cheat and ran it through an Excel binomial dist function. ;)

Edit - ok, doing it by hand, yeah, I think I erred in trying to get excel to do it for me. ;)
Post edited May 30, 2015 by bler144
Posted May 30, 2015
Floor plans / Francis York Morgan / Denmark!
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General discussion[ Mystery Giveaway ]   The Hunt for the Holy Grail(1042 posts)(1042 posts)
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