Hmmm you know what, I just can't find where SirPrimalForm had been a driving force for Flocke's wagon during D2. Care to point specific posts where that happens?

Why didn't you claim responsibility for SPF's kill earlier, Joe? With no counterclaim you are basically cleared.

Unvotus Joe

If SPF was killed by a jack-of-all-trades, then there is no redirector and someone else stopped the kill on N2. I know some (most?) of you are against showing your cards, but perhaps this could clear yet another townie. Either someone protected the would-be victim or roleblocked the killer.

About my "derpclear": why are you interpreting that post as a call for a mass name claim? I said that I liked name claiming when fully claiming if the game has flavor, not that I wanted everybody to give their name on Day 1, since mafia would probably have safeclaims. I hope I'm not shooting myself in the foot here, but there's been a lot of discussion about something I didn't really mean.

Be careful, I thought yogs was a zealous townie as well.

Also, just for curiosity, what does "psychoanalyse" do?

@ZFR: no votes in this post.

It is a now half-forgotten pair of bandwagons from D1, as you know, but it is worth looking back at them with what we know by now.

On D1, remember how Lift was on Agent because of the joke? Defending a strick lunch-all-liars policy? To some of us, it seemed like Agent was being punished for a joke, which seemed unfair, and it was even clearer when someone commented that it was a play on something that happened in another game.

For a while the mutual bandwagons were stalled in 3 for Agent and 2 for Lift. Then, on #320 people jumped in. It was deemed to become a magnet for opportunistic scum, if both or one of them were Town:

agent 5 - RWarehall, Lift, Micro, Joe, SirPrimalform
Lift3 - Pooka, agent, ConsulCaesar

(note that Micro had started the bandwagon and later retreated, then came back)

See how SPF jumped on Agent and ConsulCaesar jumped on Lift. Of course you (Joe) jumped on agent as well, but it does not count now.

The most dangerous was Agent's. Maybe it was too much to jump two of them scum on Agent? Yogs avoids intervening. So it is either Lift, Pooka or ConsulCaesar.

Or, for completion, joppo, who stayed out of trouble and posting sparingly on D1.

On #457 it was like this

agent 5 - RWarehall, Lift, SirPrimalform, Joe, Micro
Microfish 4 - trent, Pooka, yogsloth, Carradice
Lift 3 - agent, ConsulCaesar, FlockeShnee

(see how Micro went and came; BTW notice the Micro bandwagon in his "fisherman" era, before re-reading and abandoning that line of thougth, when it was clear that voting for Caesar would not be the best of form on D1)
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On the other hand, clinging to the analysis of Flocke's & Micro's bandwagons, since it was expected to see at least 2 scum in the tiny list of 5 (with GR really cleared by then, but of course could not be said, so it was 4, really) and it turned off exactly like that. So, mostly it is about: was Scum3 brazen enough to attack both Flocke and Micro or not? If he was NOT, it might be

Pooka, trent

If they WERE, it might be

Caesar, Lift.

Or, for complation, joppo, who was also in set 0 (see #1047, #1116)
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So, trying to reflect and put the two lines of thinking together, F/Micro and Agent/Lift, including people absent in the two cases.

If trent was scum, it would be a case of masterfully using AtE, because some of us actually do NOT want him to be scum!! :-)

Also, Lift had been tunnelling horribly on D1, yet we are reading him mostly as Town.

So, mostly on the same page with Joe right now, and not liking it.

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@joppo: Yogs started Flocke's bandwagon on #595, while keeping the pressure on Flocke, then eventually left once it was moving forward. It was told at the beginning of D3, on A Sandwich Made of Scum.

The statement on #918 said:

"""
- Detached stance, little presence, inane posts, low profile on Day 1.
- Changing his register completely (maybe JoeCarr noticed this, as this is part of his method?) for charging against Micro/Flocke (if the memory does not fail) on Day 2. Plus, he was making no sense and Flocke was clearly Town, for the reasons enumerated above.
"""
Re-reading, the harshness was directed at Micro. For Flocke he adopted the "avoiding the no-lynch" stance with yogs (who had started the WHOLE THING against Flocke, being followed soon by joppo, Lift). So, only to Micro (remember that it was written with slash and the qualifier "if memory does not fail") and yes, it was definitive and a complete change of stance from D1. All his behaviour, put together, was alarming enough to repeatedly mention the oddness of he flying under the radar and rapidly writing on N2 to Agent on post #6 that the priority suspects were SPF on pair or a bit before yogsloth. Then prepared the first draft of what eventually became post [url=url=https://www.gog.com/forum/general/harry_potter_and_gog_mafia_64/post918 ]#918 [/url](On Autopsies...). Meaning, bringing all the artillery to stop SPF, yogs.

So, whoever is interested in a scum!Carradice, should ponder if bussing TWO Slytherin as early as N2 would make sense.

BTW, yogs left Flocke's bandwagon and left joppo, Lift there... Why voting for Flocke?

(Big noninformative aside: this was a tad horrifing: how on D2 people would be voting for both Micro and Flocke, one with some scummy-lite behaviour, and the other had done nothing... and sure yogs had started the thing with Flocke, but why townies did follow that?)

BTW, re-reading that day, it becomes apparent how SPF supported the idea of scum "never" bussing, or very rarely (#621). Or how it was SCUM (yogs, SPF) (Pooka as well, maybe others too?) who put the most pressure on lynching people without a good case... or how SPF pressed to know who the neighbours were... Both pressed hard against a good claim... (Micro's)All anti-town behaviour that was duly noted.

Trent, for all his collaboration with yogs, was carefully pro-town most of the time. Insisting on avoiding any talk about roles, PMs, etc.

Caesar had been repeatedly digging on the issue.

Also, note the hilarious set of posts from #747 to #749. Is that scum parading or is that poor townie Lift being sandwiched by scum?

____

Probably the situation is mature enough for starting a new D4 spreadsheet, just in case there is need for negotiation for reaching a lunch.

I'm guessing he wanted to save his remaining power/powers to be of use the next "night/day", and not be in the crosshairs of remaining scum.

If i'm reading the other posts in the game right(by Joe I mean) it allows one with that ability to find out any role modifiers a player has.

So glad for GR's bump!

Joe not claiming responsability is responsible townie behaviour: he does not say that he has spent that arrow, so that scum does not know who might have some shot left, who have spent it, who is vanilla, etc. Townies stand fast and take the bullet to help alleviate the threat on others who might have a PWr.

...

In a different way. Lift has been zelous over policy, but to an extreme bordering the anti-town. Trent has been vocal about very pro-town behaviour, and yogs wanted to sound townie but defended anti-town stances.

...

It seems that the shrink role reads modifiers. Like "three shot", "epic"...

_______________

Mates, it is really tough to ponder who might be scum without risking offending someone. Especially since most will be Town and only one or two might be something different. But everyone is keeping it in a sportmanlike fashion, so, good!

Vote Count

trent 1 - Pooka
Lift 1 - Joe

Not voting - Micro, joppo, agent, GameRager, trent, Carradice, Lift, Caesar

10 Players. Takes 6 to lynch.

So, after focusing on Joe when it wasn't Trent or Lift, and noting his scumhunting was useless, there is enough evidence pointing out that he's not the guy. Claiming as a pair of twins is just about the weird part of his claim, but the rest of it has several vectors for attack open to debunk his claim. He managed to kill SPF, successfully deduced GR's Epic modifier, and protected him. Plus his "character." None have come forward to shout lies. This is promising. This must be a Town Joe. The pool where the scum is hiding is shrinking.

We'll need to stay vigilant and get the last scum (if he's a lone one) out as soon as possible.

Don't really have anything else to say aside from wondering why Caesar is denouncing his derpclear as a possible Town read, or more accurately that he called for mass claims at all. He's not being opportunistic and using it, but actually discarding it, even though sticking with it would mean he'd have something to get him a few Town points if nothing else. Would a scum Caesar do that?

I'm flying tomorrow, so this is probably my last post before Thursday evening UTC.

No, I didn't forget to add myself. I know my own alignment, so I am confirmed Town for myself as well. As I wrote. I am aware that it looks different for you.

But the point is: we are 10 players left. Half of which are mostly confirmed Town. If we assume one successful NK per Night, we get to lynch 4 players maximum before it's game over one way or the other. Remaining scum has to be among the 5 unknown (4 unknown for each Townie within the unknown group). If one scum manages to be not lynched after the next 4 Nights, he wins at 1 vs 1. But since it's only 4 unknown for me, I can be confident that we would win if we would lynch the 4 other unknowns. Therefore lynching all of them would work now that we have one more mostly confirmed Town player, while it could not have worked before.

However, all of this has the flaw that you 5 confirmed players have no way who of us unconfirmed players is Town and therefore whom to leave alive.

So back to the usual: eliminate the most suspicious.

Consul, curiously, by contradicting his own derp-clear has moved to the towny side. Of course, that could be play acted and a concious 'LAMIST' attempt. But if it was, it looks quite genuine. So, if I believe for the moment that he is either Town (or at least neutral Survivor) leaving him alive for today would work. If you all agree with this 'hey I wasn't really cleared' clear. That leaves Trent, Pooka, Joppo and me as today's lynch.

Basically I suggest: in addition to considering who is scummiest amongst us 5, consider also whom you would rate as towniest.

Following my own logic, I would support a lynch of trent, Pooka or Joppo today. By rational analysis of the previous days, I would prefer trent. But by gut feeling I prefer Pooka at the moment. But that seems to change upon every re-read of him. What I just stumbled over upon re-reading is post 1014, where he replys to Micro that he would even prefer a no-lynch over taking his vote away from trent. That is a very anti-town sentiment. Especially after it had already been made obvious after D1 how bad a no-lynch is for Town! Also there is a little similarity between him and yogs, in how they both attempted to build arguments on false absolutes. (I pointed that out in #681 and Pooka replied in #694). And then, after yog's death, Pooka digs out Flocke's old 'three word code' theory... All of this isn't very conclusive, but it adds up to an odd feeling when ISO-ing Pooka.

You know what? I'll go by feeling.
Expelliarmus Pooka


Oh, by the way, I do agree that a mass claim would be too early at the moment. We have some leeway and aren't in immediate danger of losing. We might still have hidden PRs. So there is no immediate need for a mass claim but a definite risk for Town. Let's not do that yet!

Ooooh, finally I have a chance to write another post!

Yes, I don't disagree that no-lynch is bad for Town. But I am committing to the trent wagon come high or come low - I did say I'd die on that hill after all, and I'm not going to change it until the Day is over.

Still not really dealing with absolutes here. Or let me put it another way. It's very likely that scum would bus for Town points. Even on Day 1. If they can pull off the bussing well and generally get town-read by others, that scum is on a good path to victory. After all, this wolf lynched a mafioso on Day 1 and all throughout, he sounded and felt genuinely Townie, so why would he be actually a wolf? That's my line of thinking behind it. And if his scumbuddy isn't lynched on D1, he can always talk with him in the scumchat to "figure out" a way to make the two of them seem less suspicious going forward.

You say "digs out" but in reality, I was always going to talk about it if one of yogs or trent flipped to question the status of the other. Yogs did flip, and he flipped scum to boot. Of course I'd have to look at it from a new light, that yogs was indeed scum. Add this up to my other issues with Trent and you can see why I think his flip is our best shot.

The way you wrote it, though, it sounded as if you were cleared in the eyes/minds of the rest of us....that's what I meant.

All good points except I also think it'd be a bit easier(as each "day/night" passes by) due to the odds as the player pool shrinks....so remaining town would have higher odds to hit the other scum as time went on and the player pool shrank.....so yeah, it's likely a near certain town win if we play it right and get lucky.

I don't think anyone BUT those lock-town or near-lock-town should be rated on anything but most to least suspicious. :)

I agree, but tell me: What would the harm be to possible remaining town PRs with a mass NAME claim?

Obviously, knowledge of HP lore might provide clues as to the capabilities for each character.

Then, we have 8-9 true names and 1-2 fake and most are from less-known characters and there are too many to choose from and there is no overlap.

No advantage for Town and intel for scum.

Bad idea
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About Pooka vs trent, maybe Pooka sees it very clearly for some reason, it does not need to be anti-town. Also, yogsloth had the opposite stance: he was all in for lynching even innocents, that what counted was lynching someone.

What's wrong with these two posts, Lifthrasil?

Oh.