Do you think blotunga to be more likely to be scum than scene, or do you think blotunga to be a more likely or more useful lynch than scene?

I fear I have to concur with this. I want scene to be scum, as it would make everything very neat, and would make me feel good about seeing through him right away. But I've only been getting more uncertain as the day has progressed. He doesn't read, he misrepresents, he misunderstands - in short, he's super frustrating. But he gives only a few of the reactions I'd expect from scum-scene despite repeated pushing.

I'd have no regrets if we end up lynching him and it turns out to be a mislynch, as it'd remove a major source of distractions and give us lots of things to work with.

I also don't know what the alternative is. blotunga seems obvious, and has the support. How do you read the fact that no one joined you until bookwyrm just now?

Oh, actually, could you expand a bit on how blotunga's reactions aren't what you'd expect from scum-blotunga?

Microfish is for me the most interesting alternative, as I don't think anyone has him as anything other than "neutral" at best. I have to guard against an omgus reaction here, though, and if he flips town, that gives us nothing useful.

The way you, trent, have moved your vote off scene (and just now off blotunga) reminds me strongly of the way you did so in #55 (where you were both mafia) - in both cases you then found reasons not to get back on his wagon. I fear your play is more involved when mafia, though, and of course if scene is town, then your unvote isn't significant at all, but just a case of keeping two competing wagons in sync. (I guess I could kinda see a trent-blotunga scum team if I squint? Well played if so, though, as the way you kept his wagon viable would be pretty gutsy.)

I still have people over, but taking a few minutes.

scene: please answer this:

.


Your vote is currently parked on a wagon which isn't going anywhere, and was already clear not to be going anywhere when you posted this. Kindly move it to someplace useful when you look in? And since you knew it wasn't certain if you would manage to be around before deadline at all, I question your decision to leave your vote where it is.

Scene still looks scummiest because he does. He misrepresents, he hasn't asked questions about setup / mechanics (only made it clear he's not interested in it). Am I certain that he's scum? No, far from it; far less than I'd expected and hoped to be. But from everyone in the game, he still is the one I find most likely to be scum (barely ahead of you). He'll give us useful info if he flips town, and he'll give us useful info if he flips scum.
The case against you is almost as strong. I think your flip will give us less useful info, but based on current wagons, I also think your lynch is more likely, as both scene and me could move to you for self-preservation, and SPF has given a preference for you.

The time really has come for you to move your vote. Your choices are basically me and scene.
Who looks scummiest?
Whose wagon will give town more useful info?
Who will be more useful to have around in the next few days to help figure out the game if they're town?
Who will be more likely to slip up anyway if they're scum?
Who looks lynchable at all?
You've previously signalled that the only reason you weren't voting me, is because you were afraid I'd "hammer" you. Hammering is going to happen within the next two hours and 10 minutes regardless (unless we once again collectively fuck up as town). So if you still believe I'm the one, and that scene isn't, then vote with your heart for the good of town and see what comes from it. Other people are basically waiting to see which way you'll jump in order to make up their minds, so by not voting on a useful wagon, you're once again depriving town of information, and making yourself seem ever scummier.

Still:
scene
blotunga
microfish
agentcarr
trent
flub

I see a green light on you. How close before deadline are you intending to make it?

Hypothesis: Bookwyrm is mafia. What does he gain from this?
If Bookwyrm is lone godfather, then he knows there are zero or two town PR dice rolled. If masons reveal themselves, he knows everyone else is VT, so he doesn't need to fear roleblocker, vig or doctor messing up his plans.
If there are no masons, there's a resonably high chance of two townies having PR powers (even if both dice rolls came up on the same letter).
=> Is gaining this knowledge worth the exposure he gets? Does the knowledge help mafia more than it helps town?

If Bookwyrm is part of a 2-man mafia team, then he either knows there are four town PR dice rolled (with no godfather in play), or he knows there are six town PR dice rolled (with a godfather in play).
The number of permutations on what the roles could be, and what info he would gain from a mason-reveal, is rather high, and I don't see any that are particularly useful to call out. What is worth mentioning here is that there's guaranteed to be a mafia roleblocker, who - with a mason reveal - would have a relatively small pool of candidates to pick from to block the remaining PR(s).
=> Is gaining this knowledge worth the exposure he gets? Does the knowledge help mafia more than it helps town?

FWIW, I do think that a 3-mason team should claim. I'm far less certain that a 2-mason team claiming would be more beneficial to town than it would be to scum.


I don't recall the words "misrepresent" being applied to any of my posts, offhand, nor alternative with the same meaning. Do you have specific pointers to the posts from either of you to refresh my memory?
I know I have accused both you and him of misrepresenting my words (mostly you, but him in #371). Here's thread searches for misrepresents and misrepresenting.

Blotunga asked me why I questioned him and brought focus to him. I did this because his catch up post after a long absence felt all sorts of wrong to me. It still does. He made it clear his play was deliberate. I thought - and think - that it wasn't in town's best interests. That it came from a town player doesn't change anything about it.
As for your case on me: As far as I can tell, it consists of me having the audacity to suspect you, me being the third to vote you due to being a few minutes slower than scum agentcarr in writing a post, and then a whole lot of you not understanding what I wrote and thus interpreting it in a way that makes you think that it makes me look bad, right? I still think most of that is extremely frustrating, and could come from either town or scum you. My reasons for voting you are mostly for reasons beyond that (for lack of better alternative, you deserve lynching regardless of alignment due to anti-town play - you're also suspicious for not having done the early game things that town-you did in the two games where you were town, and you're now newly suspicious for SPF's behaviour toward you (though of course SPF might've expected you to be lynched, and thus wanted to claim town-points for having defended you; isn't WIFOM just the best?)).



Okay, there's no way you're not doing this deliberately!

(More posts like this one from you though, please? I like you much better this way. Although it also reminds me of the strong start you had as mafia in #57.)


As the votes you gathered should tell you, this is anti-town behaviour. Far more so than:
Could we have two relatively new town players making that mistake two days in a row??!
I'm going to have to re-evaluate how much trust I'm willing to put in my earlier "SPF didn't talk to you at all, thus you're town" call.

Speaking of
@all: I'd really like some feedback on that line of thinking:
It's one of the few solid data points we have. Can you think of counter-arguments, examples of SPF behaving or not behaving this way as scum (anyone know offhand which games he was scum in), or anything else like that? Just like having three masons reveal themselves would be really strong, clearing three town players this way (no matter how prone to newbie mistakes they might be) would be a great boon.


Also, I think I spotted where GameRager's thinking came from:
Everyone who now wants to suspect a gogtrial-gamerager scum team, please form a line on the left, take a number and wait your turn.


Walk me through your thinking there?
I'll freely admit I deliberately went after scene right from the start. I know him to be a chaos risk, and I wanted to sort him while we could still afford it, and get some things moving instead of letting scum hide in RVS. Would scum-me risk that on town-scene? (People might remember I deliberately haunted scene on D1 in #55 as well, but then I *knew* right from the start that he was scum, as I was even scummier. This time I'd be regular scum without the knowledge that scene would be town (or a very tiny chance of being SK))

Please read that again. SPF already was on blotunga's wagon, which was at L-1. I was looking at who was active at that very moment. Of those people, trent and me were still on scene's wagon, and could hammer blotunga right away, OR three players (out of Joe, bookwyrm, spf and flub) would need to move from blotunga to scene.



So, so, so deliberate.