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ZFR: ...math that is too complicated for me to follow right now, but I get the general gist...I think....
The above are even more different for a PR who already knows one letter (e.g. trent would know one X is taken as D), and yet more different for a PR who knows more than one letter (e.g. Joe knows two Xs are taken as DD). And finally, to someone who's a town roleblocker himself, the probability is different and equal to 100%.
Joy. And loud chuckling.

Thank you very much @ZFR & @LIFT for hosting this game! Thank you all for playing! It was fun, even though we lost.
ZFR: TTTTTTT (no B, can be ignored)
Aaargh. Big mistake here. The TTTTTTT of course can be ignored in the final calculation, but it can't be ignored when calculating weights, since there is a possibility of it appearing.

The probability of it appearing is very small (requires 7 Ts) so it doesn't have that big of an effect on the final solution, but it should be taken into account nonetheless.
So:
TTTTTTT has (7! / 7! * 1!)) = 1 permutation (duh! all Ts).
TTTTTXX has (7! / (5! * 2!)) = 21 permutations
TTTXXXX has (7! / (3! * 4!)) = 35 permutations
TXXXXXX has (7! / (1! * 6!)) = 7 permutations

And the final answer becomes:

[(1 - 1) * 1/64 ] + (this is the TTTTTTT part that here resolves to 0 and can be ignored here. The weights though have changed slightly)
[(1 - 0.9*0.9) * 21/64 ] +
[(1 - 0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9) * 35/64 ] +
[(1 - 0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9) * 7/64 ]

= 0 + 0.06234 + 0.18807 + 0.05125
= 0.3016627

Which is...
Almost exactly same as the original probability to the point that it makes me wonder whether these two values are actually same or just pretty close.

EDIT: Yup the value is actually exactly same.

Conclusion: Knowing that a Serial Killer exists, does not change the probability of B appearing. This actually can be common-sense confirmed by looking at the fact that Serial Killer appears in exactly half of the possible permutations. The ones where he does and ones where he doesn't are "symmetrical".

The probability of B appearing does change for Mafia, who know the exact letter setup, or for an RP, who know if 1 or more letters are taken. It also would have been different if SPF was the roleblocker instead of dedo, since in that case with SK and Mafia roleblocker revealed, only TTT or T combinations are possible.
Post edited July 05, 2019 by ZFR
gogtrial34987: "Cancel the game this must not be allowed to continue!!"

I find it interesting that so many in the observer thread had me as probable scum, while everyone in game had me as town.
I only thought that you were scum cause SirP was hinting at it. When he did that I recalled how you said "I'm disappointed that even Joe is town-reading me" or something like that and I was like "he played me for a sucker!!!"

Then the hints got a bit much and I started thinking you probably were just town again... but by that time it wouldn't have been prudent of me to drink the Codeine In Front Of You.

just noticed that Beatrice and Admiral ZaFiRos made it into the game that's very funny.
ZFR: Four of you vote for flub and he promptly disappears.

flubbucket is dead. He was Beatrice, Vanilla Townie.

And when that happens you get back to... wherever it is that you were before all this happened.

Team Mafia have won the game.

And you find yourself with full knowledge about everything. You're saddened that you don't get to see other worlds. The next one would have been a mixture of System Shock and Battlestar Galactica and would have featured the famous brig. And after that... well after that the worlds weren't really ready; probably something about a Pokemon Tournament or Witches' Trials. Oh well... It was all fun while it lasted.

Microfish_1 was Sage12345, Town 1-shot Vigilante.
Bookwyrm627 was Admiral ZaFiRos, Vanilla Townie.
gogtrial34987 was Lance Auslow, Vanilla Townie.
PookaMustard was Elizabeth Howe, Mafia Goon.
dedoporno was Geppetto, Mafia Roleblocker.

Back in the now empty hotel, as the day approaches its end, the two people from the lobby get up and ride into the sunset.

THE END
Question: I thought scum had to lynch/kill all town or till they equaled town in number. Was that not the case here?

It was fun while it lasted, regardless. :)
JoeSapphire: just noticed that Beatrice and Admiral ZaFiRos made it into the game that's very funny.
Oh yeah. I hope the flavour/names, as much of it as it was, was at least somewhat funny.
GameRager: Question: I thought scum had to lynch/kill all town or till they equaled town in number. Was that not the case here?
They get a night kill, which cannot be stopped since there is no live Doctor or Blocker, and it becomes 2-2 next day. So a win is inevitable.
Post edited July 05, 2019 by ZFR
JoeSapphire: just noticed that Beatrice and Admiral ZaFiRos made it into the game that's very funny.
ZFR: Oh yeah. I hope the flavour/names, as much of it as it was, was at least somewhat funny.
GameRager: Question: I thought scum had to lynch/kill all town or till they equaled town in number. Was that not the case here?
ZFR: They get a night kill, which cannot be stopped since there is no live Doctor or Blocker, and it becomes 2-2 next day. So a win is inevitable.
Oh then that makes sense....thanks for the clarification.

(Also make sure to read my reply to you in the sin episodes thread of yours. ;))
Microfish_1: From the observer thread: Aww, and here I was thinking there had been some activity but it's just three wonky ASCII flags. :P
This forum doesn't do monospacing, so pretty much all ASCII art is going to come out wonky. I didn't know the American flag was named Old Glory though!

JoeSapphire: I only thought that you were scum cause SirP was hinting at it. When he did that I recalled how you said "I'm disappointed that even Joe is town-reading me" or something like that and I was like "he played me for a sucker!!!"

Then the hints got a bit much and I started thinking you probably were just town again... but by that time it wouldn't have been prudent of me to drink the Codeine In Front Of You.
Actually, at no point was I hinting at gogtrial being scum, my question to HSL was genuine. When I was cheering gogtrial on it was because he was attacking Bookwyrm. :P
Cheers mafia. 'Twas a hard-won victory with a start like that.

Also, I have to admit that it's pretty hilarious that scum deliberately didn't want to kill SK N1, and yet still managed to. Frustrating, but hilarious.
Post edited July 05, 2019 by agentcarr16
agentcarr16: Also, I have to admit that it's pretty hilarious that scum deliberately didn't want to kill SK N1, and yet still managed to. Frustrating, but hilarious.
Were you trying to kill scum? What was your plan about co-existing with the mafia team?
agentcarr16: Also, I have to admit that it's pretty hilarious that scum deliberately didn't want to kill SK N1, and yet still managed to. Frustrating, but hilarious.
dedoporno: Were you trying to kill scum? What was your plan about co-existing with the mafia team?
I was aiming for scum on N1, hoping to get a bit of an edge, since it's much harder to hit scum than town. Then I'd be doing my best to play both sides.
agentcarr16: I was aiming for scum on N1, hoping to get a bit of an edge, since it's much harder to hit scum than town. Then I'd be doing my best to play both sides.
Good job figuring out SPF then!
agentcarr16: I was aiming for scum on N1, hoping to get a bit of an edge, since it's much harder to hit scum than town. Then I'd be doing my best to play both sides.
dedoporno: Good job figuring out SPF then!
Thanks. He was just quiet enough that I was suspicious.
ZFR: <snip>
You've got four people killed on N1. It's been bugging me all game, lol.
agentcarr16: Thanks. He was just quiet enough that I was suspicious.
Bah!
agentcarr16: Thanks. He was just quiet enough that I was suspicious.
SirPrimalform: Bah!
Boo!
SirPrimalform: Bah!
agentcarr16: Boo!
Ey Booboo.....let'sa go get us some pic-a-nic baskets.