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General discussionGOG Mafia #59 - Previously on Mafia...(1130 posts)(1130 posts)
(1130 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted July 04, 2019
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PookaMustard: Dedo may have better luck...wait a sec. No. You wanted to claim one-shot doctor. The page says there can only be ever a single one shot doctor at any time. That title goes to JoeSapphire. If Joe wasn't killed off by our beloved vigilante, Joe would have counterclaimed and put dedo at risk. Yikes! I'm glad this night happened. The one shot doctor claim could've been disastrous if only Trent fell dead.
I wasn't going to blindly claim 1-shot just because. The alternative was a full Doctor. As you saw planning for these things can only take you so far. You wing it on the spot when everything goes to shit :)
Posted July 04, 2019
I just looked at my D1 reads list. I got agent. All other scum I put in my town pile. >.<
Posted July 04, 2019
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gogtrial34987: Things that made me chuckle from the mafia and observer threads:
"ISO'ing gogtrial would be like scaling Everest or something. Okay, not that bad, but still."

"I wouldn't expect a Vig to kill. Town are ahead at the moment and they know it. There is no point in risking it."

@Pooka: you go on the list of people I'm not ever going to underestimate again.
@Bookwyrm: I'm glad you convinced me of Pooka by the end, even if it didn't matter anymore.
Now that I think about it, somehow ISO'ing you was scaling Everest, but pocketing you (I didn't even think of it that way, it just came to unintentionally) just...happened. It was easy. Easy as hell. Way too darn easy. I'm not that capable, am I?

Dedo was also wrong about his attempting to claim one shot doctor, or else it could have gotten ugly with Joe...well and what do you know, we also hoped the SK wasn't taken out, and guess what happened next thing.

Now that you're never going to underestimate me again, any feedbaxk you have on my play? I'd be interested in where I blundered and where I excelled, especially when I probably shocked you by how well I managed the game with dedo.
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dedoporno: I wasn't going to blindly claim 1-shot just because. The alternative was a full Doctor. As you saw planning for these things can only take you so far. You wing it on the spot when everything goes to shit :)
Pretty much. And every Night, everything didn't go as planned.

N1 Plan: End Agent and have scene continue digging his grave
N1 IRL: holy hell we're handicapped right off the gate what the heck dude help us we're gonna suffer

N2 Plan: Bookwyrm is annoying. Tear him to shreds.
N2 IRL: what do you mean nobody died!?

N3 Plan: Trent is possible doctor! Off him!
N3 IRL: AHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA thanks vigilante AHAHAHAHAHA
Post edited July 04, 2019 by PookaMustard
Posted July 04, 2019
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PookaMustard: Now that you're never going to underestimate me again, any feedbaxk you have on my play?
Basically everything Bookwyrm pointed out on D4. For me, once my eyes were opened, what convinced me (and so what you can improve) was chiefly your GR vote, and your complete lack of committing to reads or taking stances as the game progressed. Sometimes you just have to gamble as scum as well.
I think you'll be an asset to town in those games where you are.
Posted July 04, 2019
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gogtrial34987: Basically everything Bookwyrm pointed out on D4. For me, once my eyes were opened, what convinced me (and so what you can improve) was chiefly your GR vote, and your complete lack of committing to reads or taking stances as the game progressed. Sometimes you just have to gamble as scum as well.
I think you'll be an asset to town in those games where you are.
I was interested in how I messed up this one vote precisely, since from a town perspective (and I was playing a town game during the game, or at least trying to, so if I were town, I won't say half my posts won't stay the same but I would have still pursued scene and GR), GR made sense but not flub. At least not yet. I may be a little dense sometimes, so the minutae of how this vote cause a 47% scum likelihood increase in your reada would be helpful. Still, thanks for both the game, and for the feedback here!
Posted July 04, 2019
Round of applause to Pooka and Dedo. Stellar game. Pooka's first scum game too, so excellent stuff.

Thank You ZFR for hosting a great game and for Lift for moderating.
Posted July 04, 2019
Oh yeah, something I forgot to mention when I was re-writing the post I lost to the power outage - there is this Chrome plugin (not sure if there is a version of it for Firefox) called Typio Form Recovery which is kind of a replacement for the Lazarus Form plugin that stopped working a while ago. It doesn't work as good as Lazarus but it's pretty close and it's definitely better than nothing.
Posted July 04, 2019
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Microfish_1: But which are the two who ride into the sunset?
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dedoporno: Joe and Dedo, of course.
Go be unbeatable duo with someone else.
Posted July 04, 2019
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dedoporno: (not sure if there is a version of it for Firefox)
Doesn't seem like it. I checked. Probably there's a FIrefox alternative if I looked hard for one.
Posted July 04, 2019
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dedoporno: Joe and Dedo, of course.
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ZFR: Go be unbeatable duo with someone else.
How dare you, leaving me for Joe, especially after THIS game!
Posted July 05, 2019
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PookaMustard: How dare you, leaving me for Joe, especially after THIS game!
I'll never forget you but my heart belongs to Joe.
Posted July 05, 2019
And now for more probabilities...

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gogtrial34987: The odds of a single die coming up "B" is 5%.
Seven dice were rolled.
So the odds of no "B" coming up are 0.95*0.95*0.95*... = 69.8%. Which means that there's a 30% chance that there's at least one town roleblocker in the game.
This of course is true for a virgin pre-game draw. For the stage the game was in however, you could look at it differently, since you had more information.

For example, Mafia knew the setup was TTTXXXX, where X is a non-T letter. The probability of X being B is 10%.

So for them, the probability of a town roleblocker being present in game was:
1 - (0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9) = 34.4%

Of course since they knew GameRager was Town, they had a strong reason to believe he wasn't lying, so the probability was close to 100%, but still...

Town on the other hand, knew there was a Serial Killer, so the possible combinations were:

TTTTTTT (no B, can be ignored) (EDIT: this is not entirely true, and the remainder of the calculations in this post are slightly wrong because of this. See post 1113.)
TTTTTXX
TTTXXXX
TXXXXXX

The latter 3 combinations didn't have an equal chance of appearing. There was for example a bigger chance of TTTXXXX appearing than TXXXXXX.

So we have to find the probability of each combination appearing, and using that as a weight to multiply the probability of B appearing in that setup. Basically

P(setup appearing) * P(B appearing in given setup) for all three setups, and then summing them up.

So: T and X have both equal chance of appearing, therefore all permutations have equal chance of appearing.
TTTTTXX has (7! / (5! * 2!)) = 21 permutations
TTTXXXX has (7! / (3! * 4!)) = 35 permutations
TXXXXXX has (7! / (1! * 6!)) = 7 permutations

If we divide all by 7, we get the first combination has a weight of 3/9, the second has 5/9 and the last one has 1/9

So P(B appearing, given a Serial Killer) =
[(1 - 0.9*0.9) * 3/9 ] +
[(1 - 0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9) * 5/9 ] +
[(1 - 0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9) * 1/9 ]

= 0.06333 + 0.19106 + 0.05206
= 0.306451

(Yeah, I know it's also around 30%, but it's compeltely different).

The above are even more different for a PR who already knows one letter (e.g. trent would know one X is taken as D), and yet more different for a PR who knows more than one letter (e.g. Joe knows two Xs are taken as DD). And finally, to someone who's a town roleblocker himself, the probability is different and equal to 100%.
Post edited July 05, 2019 by ZFR
Posted July 05, 2019
Yes, great game. I thought the game was done for scum after two anti-town roles killed each other N1 and dedo managed to thwart the NK N2. But Pooka and dedo fooled everyone long enough to turn the tide. Well played indeed!
Posted July 05, 2019
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Lifthrasil: and dedo managed to thwart the NK N2.
It wasn't just dedo. trent helped too. ;)
Posted July 05, 2019
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Microfish_1: @SPF only two of them were "wonky", one of them was a representation of Old Glory, and thus should be respected! :P
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SirPrimalform: Whowhatnow?
From the observer thread: Aww, and here I was thinking there had been some activity but it's just three wonky ASCII flags. :P
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Community
General discussionGOG Mafia #59 - Previously on Mafia...(1130 posts)(1130 posts)
(1130 posts)